Conflict Analysis Steering Board AmbassadorsBoard of Principles meeting Sarajevo 8 October 2013 1 Overview 1 Methodology 2 S tate of mind 3 Perception of problems Institutions and governance ID: 528977
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Slide1
Bosnia and HerzegovinaConflict Analysis
Steering Board Ambassadors/Board of Principles/ meetingSarajevo, 8 October 2013
1Slide2
Overview
1. Methodology2. State of mind
3.
Perception of problemsInstitutions and governanceInternational Community enagegment6. Agents of change7. Citizen participation8. Varying views with regard to B&H perspective (table)9. Views of the past and reconcilliation10. Vision of B&H11. Security: likelyhood of violence12. Focus grups: main issues13. Conclusions
2Slide3
Methodology
Multidimensional QuestionnairePrism research Public Opinion Poll, May 7th to 22nd 2013;
Research
sample and size:
1500 respondents ;805 Bosniaks, 178 Croats and 462 Serbs; 840 of the respondents live in rural, 660 in urban areas.Desk reviewInterviews and consultationsInterviews with key stakeholdersFocus groups, May 24 – June 4. 2013 :Youth, working class, demobilized soldiers and women; Over 50 participants in total from across BiH; Facilitated and assisted by several local experts.3Slide4
2. State of mind
50.2% of the respondents describe their state of mind over the past year in negative terms (lethargic); 12% satisfied, optimistic or content;
52.2%
feel their life is the same;
39.6% worse than a year ago; 49.3% expect it to be the same by the next year;33.1% worse by the next year.4Slide5
State of Mind 5Slide6
3. Perception of Problems
72.4% of respondents see corruption as the main problem across the country;59% see
economy
as the main problem;
50.5% see politics as the main problem;6Slide7
4. Institutions and governance - Trust
51.8% have confidence in the police; 42.7% in religious leaders;
28.6%
trust
international community24.4 % and 16.6 % trust entity and cantonal governments, and11.4 % trust the politicians, Only one in 10 citizens trust local politicians.7Slide8
Institutions and governance: Levels of trust
8Slide9
5. International Community engagementActive engagement:
69.6% (FB&H) 71.5% (Bosniak) 25.3% (RS) 18.2% (Serb) 57.4% (BD) 61.3% (Croat)
No engagement:
9.6% (FB&H) 11.2%(Bosniak) 48.8% (RS) 52.4%(Serb) 11.7% (BD) 11.4%(Croat)9Slide10
6. Agents of change63.0%
youth50.5% citizens26.1 % intellectuals
24.2%
international community53.0% support active international engagement.10Slide11
7. Citizen participation
Disinterest in actively participating in changing the society:53.85 % willing to vote in the elections;
34.5 %
willing to leave the country; 31.1 % would demonstrate;16.7% willing to join a citizens’ action group; 14.5% a political party;6.6% ready to use force or violence if necessary.11Slide12
8. Varying views with regard to B&H`s EU
perspective12Slide13
9. Views of the past and reconcilliation
Ethnic groups have starkly different views of the past conflict:39.7% of the respondents believe that there has been reconciliation in BiH; 13 % believe that reconcilliation is possible;
73%
would prefer to live in communities dominated by their own ethic group.
13Slide14
10. Vision of B&H71.9% of Serbs and
53.6% Croats wish to live in independent mono-ethnic entities;36.7% of Bosniaks desire to live in B&H within its current borders, 20.6% of them wish to live in an independent Bosniak entity;28.5% of them accept living inB&H within it‘s current borderds and entities.
14Slide15
11.
Security: likelyhood of violence2/3 believe that the outbreak of new armed conflict in the Balkan region is not likely in the next 5 years;35.7 % from all ethnic groups think that there could be some violence (criminal acts, violent protests, separate ethnic incidents,broader ethnic conflict)
;
Likelihood of B&H not splitting peacefully?
58.8 % Bosniaks 55% Croats44.7% Serbs15Slide16
Security: likelyhood of violence
If integrity of BiH was threatened…Use peaceful means 54.4% Bosniaks
45%
Croats
30.6% Serbs Willing to take up arms13.5% Bosniaks 12.6% Croats and 1.5% SerbsNot engage at all28.4% Bosniaks, 40.1% Croats and64.9% Serbs would not engage in any way.16Slide17
12. Focus groups: main issues
Democratic process: high level of election fraud;Corruption as a parallel system, more trusted than administration;
Heav
ily dependent
on the international community.17Slide18
13.
ConclusionsLethargy prevents changeCitizens passive, unless threatened…But majority feel their ethnic group still being threatened
Wrong perception of international engagement
Crisis of common identity and all levels of society (that no constitutional reform can fix)
Future uncertain and unpredictable 18