u se from wellbeing to support decarbonization Prof Mark Swilling Stellenbosch University 2 International Resource Panel 4 Sustainable Development Goals on resources SDG 84 decoupling economic growth amp natural ID: 602782
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Decoupling resource use from wellbeing to support decarbonization
Prof. Mark SwillingStellenbosch UniversitySlide2
2Slide3
International Resource PanelSlide4
4Slide5
Sustainable Development Goals on resources
SDG 8.4 - decoupling economic growth & natural resource use SDG 2 (ending hunger – food)SDG 6 (providing water and sanitation)SDG 7 (ensuring access to
energy)
SDG
11 (making sustainable
resource efficient cities)
SDG
12 (promoting sustainable consumption and
production)
SDG
13 (combating climate
change)
SDG
14 (conserving the
oceans)
SDG 15 (protecting and restoring terrestrial resources)
5Slide6
all 5 previous global growth periods were
able to access cheap primary resources
?????Slide7
2011-2013Slide8
Source: IRP 2016Slide9
Source: IRP 2016Slide10
Decoupling: resource & impact
Resource use
Human well-being
Economic activity (GDP
)
Environmental impact
Resource decoupling
Impact decouplingSlide11
Source: IRP 2016Slide12
(Source: IRP)Slide13
(Murray and Kind, Nature January 2012)Slide14
World Oil Exports
14
Source:
US Energy Information Administration (EIA)Slide15
Source: REN 2106Slide16
Green Energy ImpactGreen Energy Choices: The Benefits, Risks and Trade-offs of Low-Carbon Technologies for Electricity
Productionwind, PV, CSP, hydro and geothermal power generate GHG emissions over the life cycle of less than 50gCO2e per kWhcoal-fired power plants: 800-1000gCO2e per kWh over the life cycleSlide17
But….RE would result in an increased demand for steel, cement and copper in comparison to the continuation of the business-as-usual fossil fuel
plus increased use of rare earth metals such as indium and telleriumSlide18
The Economist
changes its tuneSlide19
19
32%Slide20
20Slide21Slide22
Africa’s core challengeGiven that 80% of exports are primary resources, future development depends on re-investment of resource rents in:
human capital development infrastructuresustainability-oriented technological innovationrestoration of renewable resources - water, soils, biomass (incl biodiversity)urbanizationSlide23Slide24
Source: Africa Progress Panel report, 2015Slide25
Source: Africa Progress Panel report, 2015Slide26
Solar
Hydro
Geothermal
WindSlide27Slide28Slide29
RwandaSlide30
Quarzazate
(wa-za-zat), MorroccoSlide31Slide32Slide33
Lagos BRTSlide34
Light rail in AddisSlide35
TiT
Tigray, EthiopiaSlide36Slide37
Suame
Magazine, GhanaSlide38
National – SA case
“…secure ecologically sustainable development and use of natural resources while promoting justifiable economic and social development.” Section 24 (b) of the ConstitutionSlide39
(Source:
Padayachee, 2011)Slide40
Resource constraints to growth: SA caseWater: 98% of available water allocated, yet growth rates coupled to water use rates
Coal use for energy estimated to grow by 60% by 2020, yet estimates of peak production are 2007 (Patzek & Croft 2010), 2012 (Mohr & Evans 2009), 2020 (Hartnady 2010)Govt estimate of reserves: from 50 bt – 28 bt (2003); possibly only 10bt (Hartnady)Slide41
Critical Sub-Dependencies
Economic Growth
Other
10%
Energy
Oil 20%
Coal 70%Slide42
+ 40% of all electricity consumed attributed to: mining, traction, basic chemicals/refined fuels, non-metallic mineral processing, basic iron & steel production, ferro-allows & non-ferrous metalsSlide43
REI4Pa
lternative to REFIT, launched in 2011from nearly zero to over R190 b in 4 years – most rapid growth rate in the world, nearly 5% of GDP, major job creator Managed by the IPP unit in DOE4 bidding rounds: Dec ‘11, May ‘12, Nov ‘13, April/June 2015 (+ Nov)June 2015: 6327 MW in 92 projects approved, 37 connected by end 2015 (1827MW)R50 billion plus into socio-economic developmentSlide44Slide45
Can SA be more ambitious?Slide46
Can SA be more ambitious?What are the cost implications of increasing RE from 10% (IRP) to 25% of total power
modelled life cycle cost per kWh of all energy generation technologies by 2030whole grid approach (geographical, distribution capacity), hourly intervals for whole yearlife cycle cost = capex + opex + fuelActual plant behaviour: ramp rate, turndown limit, availability (maintenance) & technology-specific characteristicsSlide47Slide48Slide49
OUR CHALLENGE AS AFRICANS: WILL WE INVEST IN
THE CAPITAL INTENSIVE CENTRALISED 19TH/
20
TH
TECHNOLOGIES AND MISS THE NEXT
INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION LIKE WE MISSED THE
POST-WWII ECONOMIC BOOM?
OR WILL WE RECOGNISE THAT WE ARE
IN THE 21
ST
CENTURY AND RESPOND
APPROPRIATELY?
MANY AFRICAN COUNTRIES UNDERSTAND THIS
DO WE?