Changing hazards changing risks and the need for robust risk management Jeremy Hess MD MPH Overview Climate change Whats happening and why What health impacts well see Risks from environmental hazards ID: 804162
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Slide1
Climate Change: Managing the Shifting Environmental Health Risks
Changing hazards, changing risks, and the need for robust risk management
Jeremy Hess, MD, MPH
Slide2OverviewClimate change What’s happening and why
What health impacts we’ll seeRisks from environmental hazardsA conceptual framework for riskHow climate change is changing the risk landscapeRisk managementSome approaches
Implications for public health
Slide3Climate ChangeA brief primer
Slide4Climate Change
Thanks to Daniel Rochberg for some slides
Slide5Climate
Change
Increased
GHG
Emissions
Increased
GHG Concentrations
Impacts
Increased Temperature
Slide6Climate
Change
Increased
GHG
Emissions
Increased
GHG Concentrations
Impacts
Increased Temperature
Slide7Climate
Change
Increased
GHG
Emissions
Increased
GHG Concentrations
Impacts
http://www.pewclimate.org/facts-and-figures/international/historical
Increased Temperature
Slide8Climate
Change
Increased
GHG
Emissions
Increased
GHG Concentrations
Impacts
2012 Peak Concentration: 396 ppm
CO
2
Concentrations over the past 800,000 years
(dark blue line)
Increased Temperature
Slide9http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/big-idea/05/carbon-bath
Slide10Climate
Change
Increased
GHG
Emissions
Increased
GHG Concentrations
Impacts
Increased Temperature
Slide11The Copenhagen Diagnosis, available
here.
Climate
Change
Increased
GHG
Emissions
Increased
GHG Concentrations
Impacts
Increased Temperature
Slide12Climate
Change
Increased
GHG
Emissions
Increased
GHG Concentrations
Impacts
Increased Temperature
Slide13Historical and Projected Global Temperatures
(degrees C; 2000 = 0)
IPCC
Climate
Change
Increased
GHG
Emissions
Increased
GHG Concentrations
Impacts
Increased Temperature
Slide14Climate change
“Climate change refers to any distinct change in measures of climate lasting for a long period of time. In other words,
‘climate change’ means major changes in temperature, rainfall, snow, or wind patterns lasting for decades or longer
.”
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
Frequently Asked Questions about Global Warming and Climate Change
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/downloads/Climate_Basics.pdf
Climate
Change
Increased
GHG
Emissions
Increased
GHG Concentrations
Impacts
Increased Temperature
Slide15Climate
Change
Increased
GHG
Emissions
Increased
GHG Concentrations
Impacts
Increased Temperature
Slide16Climate
Change
Increased
GHG
Emissions
Increased
GHG Concentrations
Impacts
Increased Temperature
Slide17Climate
Change
Increased
GHG
Emissions
Increased
GHG Concentrations
Impacts
Increased Temperature
Slide18http://www.cbc.ca/gfx/images/news/photos/2009/07/06/drought-china-cp-w-6244601.jpg
“There is
medium confidence
that droughts will intensify in the 21st century in some seasons and areas
, due to reduced precipitation and/or increased
evapotranspiration
.”
IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation
Summary for Policymakers, p. 11
Climate
Change
Increased
GHG
Emissions
Increased
GHG Concentrations
Impacts
Increased Temperature
Slide19Maldives: 1,192 islands
330,000 people
average elevation ~1 meter
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=5542
IPCC sea level rise projections by 2100:
18-59 cm
IPCC 4
th
Assessment Report, Synthesis Report
Climate
Change
Increased
GHG
Emissions
Increased
GHG Concentrations
Impacts
Increased Temperature
Slide20http://www.history.com/photos/heat-waves/photo2
“It is
very likely
that the length, frequency, and/or intensity of warm spells or heat waves will increase
over most land areas.”
IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation
Summary for Policymakers, p. 11
“France's summer
heatwave
killed a total of 14,800 people
, according to official figures released on Thursday.”
BBC News, September 25, 2003
Climate
Change
Increased
GHG
Emissions
Increased
GHG Concentrations
Impacts
Increased Temperature
Slide21photo by
Paula Bronstein, Getty Images http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2010/08/photogalleries/100826-pakistan-flooding-millions-people-pictures/#/pakistan-flooding-man-water_25084_600x450.jpg
“It
is
likely
that the frequency of heavy precipitation or the proportion of total rainfall from heavy falls
will increase
in the 21st century
over many areas of the globe
.”
IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation, Summary for Policymakers, p. 11
Climate
Change
Increased
GHG
Emissions
Increased
GHG Concentrations
Impacts
Increased Temperature
Slide22Average tropical cyclone
maximum wind speed is
likely
to increase
, although increases
may not occur in all ocean basins
.
IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation, Summary for Policymakers, p. 11
It
is
likely
that the global frequency of tropical cyclones will either decrease or
remain essentially
unchanged
.
IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation, Summary for Policymakers, p. 11
http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/470571main_isabel_lg.jpg
Climate
Change
Increased
GHG
Emissions
Increased
GHG Concentrations
Impacts
Increased Temperature
Slide23Environmental hazard riskThe components of risk and how they are shifting
Slide24Basic Risk Formula in CC Community
Probability x Consequence = Risk
Slide25Some Climate Change Risks
Lenton
, T. M. (2011). Early warning of climate tipping points.
Nature Climate Change
. 1: 201-209.
Slide26Components of RiskEquations
Risk = p(H) x impact or costRisk = p(H) x V/Res, wherepH = Hazard probabilityV = Vulnerability, where V = p(E) x (S)
pE
= Exposure probability
S = Susceptibility
Res = Resilience
Res ≡ Adaptive Capacity
Considerations
What is the hazard?
Who is most vulnerable?
Little guidance
Based on exposure and susceptibility:
Elderly
ChildrenWorkersWhat drives adaptive capacity for vulnerable populations?How might early warnings facilitate protective responses and increase resilience?
Slide27How Risk is Changing: Hazards
Slide28How Risk is Changing: Hazards
IPCC. Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press; 2012.
Slide29How Risk is Changing: Exposure
Available: http://www.worldmapper.com
Slide30How Risk is Changing: Exposure
IPCC, SREX, 2012
Slide31How Risk is Changing: Susceptibility
Available: http://www.worldmapper.com
Global Distribution of Preventable Deaths
Slide32Mortality Distribution
95% of disaster deaths occur in the developing world
IPCC, SREX, 2012
Slide33Combination, 1975-2010
People Killed
People Affected
Disasters
People Killed
People Affected
Disasters
Slide34Health Effects of Disasters
Pre-event – injuries, road traffic crashes
Event – debris injuries, drowning
Post-Event – displacement, chronic
dz
exacerbation
Recovery – depression, violence
Slide35Hurricanes Katrina and Rita
Slide36Slide37NOLA Health Care System Pre and Post
Rudowitz
et al.,
2006; slide courtesy John Balbus
Slide38Moving the Coping Range
Slide39The role of risk managementApproaches to risk and implications for public health
Slide40Aspects of Risk ManagementMultiple componentsRisk recognition
Risk assessmentRisk engagementMultiple stancesRisk mitigationRisk avoidanceRisk retentionRisk sharing
Minimize or Avoid
Retain or Share
Slide41Climate
Change
Increased
GHG
Emissions
Increased
GHG Concentrations
Impacts
Increased Temperature
okay, climate change is a problem.
what do we do abou
t it?
Slide42Climate
Change
Increased
GHG
Emissions
Increased
GHG Concentrations
Impacts
Increased Temperature
reduce
emissions
(mitigation)
prepare for / respond to the impacts
(adaptation)
okay, climate change is a problem.
what do we do abou
t it?
Slide43mitigate against this
adapt
to this
Put another way:
Slide44Mitigation:
“avoiding the unmanageable”
Adaptation:
“managing the unavoidable”
Slide45Slide46http://www.ipcc.ch/graphics/graphics/ar4-wg1/ppt/figure02.ppt#278,22,Figure 2.21
All
affect human health
Slide47Potential Co-benefits of GHG Mitigation Policies
Energy generation – decreased air pollution
Transportation – increased physical activity, decreased air pollution, decreased injuries from collisions
Agriculture – reduced red meat consumption
Agriculture – improved nutrition
Slide48Identifying synergies and opportunities for co-benefits
Slide49Both Are Required
Yohe and Leichenko 2010
Slide50Risk Management Options
IPCC SREX Summary for Policy Makers, available here.
Slide51But Where to Start?
Slide52BRACE
Slide53“Place Specific and Path Dependent”At any point in time, health risks associated with environmental hazards depend markedly on interactions between components of risk
Do we start with hazards or vulnerability?If vulnerability relatively high, address that preferentiallyIf vulnerability relatively low, explore thresholds and implications of shifting hazardsBe mindful of feedbacks over time:
Exposure over time (or lack thereof) can feed back into vulnerability
Implications for adaptive capacity, development, and resilience
Slide54Feedbacks Over Time
IPCC, SREX, 2012
Slide55Changing Risk Over Time
Tol R, Ebi K, Yohe
G. Infectious disease, development, and climate change: a scenario analysis. Environment and Development Economics. 2007;12(05):687-706.
Slide56Awareness of Thresholds
Lenton, T. M. (2011). Early warning of climate tipping points.
Nature Climate Change
. 1: 201-209.
Slide57The Role of Learning
IPCC, SREX, 2012
Slide58Problem Types
Used with permission from Hovmand
, P. S. Adapted
rom
Burrell, G., and
Morgan,G
. (1979).
Sociological paradigms and Organizational analysis: Elements of sociology of corporate life.
London, and Heinemann
,
and Lane, D. C. (1999). Social theory and System dynamics practice.
Journal of Operational Research Society
, 113, 501-527.
Slide59The Role of Transformation
IPCC, SREX, 2012
Slide60Simulations Can Help
Slide61Role of Adaptive Management
Return to the risk equationReduce hazard probabilityReduce hazard exposureReduce susceptibilityRequires modeling, learning, and adaptive managementIntegrated with sustain-able development
Slide62In SummaryClimate change is changing the risk landscape
Several risk management stances are availableRisk can be broken down into components and the breakdowns can help guide risk managementRisk assessment, risk management, and risk communication are increasingly linkedAdaptive management is an important short- to medium-term tool
Slide63