Scenario Planning Process RSENR University of Vermont Susan Stickley Stratus Inc August 6 2019 Susan Stickley Stratus Inc There is this totally absurd notion that knowledge proceeds in neat steps from known facts through logical deduction ID: 769841
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Scenario Planning ProcessRSENR University of Vermont Susan Stickley Stratus, Inc. August 6, 2019 Susan Stickley Stratus, Inc. “There is this totally absurd notion that knowledge proceeds in neat steps from known facts through logical deduction.” Edward de Bono 1
Who We Are Success Formula: Distinctive Competencies Where We Have to Work Scenarios: The Business Environment Who We Want to Be Vision: Strategic Intent The Elements of Strategy 2 Kees van der Heijden Stratus, Inc. 2017
Defining Scenarios “ Scenarios are stories about the ways that the world might turn out tomorrow… …that can help us recognize and adapt to changing aspects of our current environment ” Peter Schwartz Stratus, Inc. 2017 3
Benefits of Scenario PlanningLeads to robust decisions in the face of uncertainty;Allows for more flexibility in a changing world; Provides a means to imagine and plan for risks (risk mitigation);Encourages creativity and innovation;Allows for the creation of a common vision; Helps divergent views come into alignment. 4 Stratus, Inc. 2017
Scenarios are Not Forecasts 5 Viewpoint: Past largely determines future Viewpoint: Multiple forces can affect future Source: Global Business Network Planning for One Future Planning for A Range of Futures
Strategic FocusCore Strategic Question that is the basis for scenario exploration. Developed from strategic themes that emerge through data gathering. Unique, Distinctive CapabilityStrategic Challenges and OpportunitiesGrowth Sustainability…Visions of SuccessRelevancy filter for scenario content development Stratus, Inc. 2017 6
RSENR & its Strategic Focus CONTEXTUAL ENVIRONMENT THE TRANSACTONAL ENVIRONMENT Social Technological Economic Environment Political Less or No Org InfluenceSome Org InfluenceSTEM AdvancementsInnovation in Environmental EducationTech EnablersHigher EducationUniversity of Vermont Stakeholders (students, faculty, alumni…)VisionStrategiesCompetenciesHigh OrgInfluence Scenario thinking starts in the outer circle –the contextual environment that will shape your choices.Scenarios employ “Outside-In” Thinking 7 Stratus, Inc. 2017
Basic Work FlowPlanning and Data Gathering (1+ month) Map out Strategic Planning ProcessOrient Ourselves: Data Gathering - Interviews, Survey and Analysis - Identify Key Strategic Themes and Critical Uncertainties - Frame Strategic Focus (question) Output: Strategic Context Summary Document, Strategic FocusCritical Uncertainties - Compiled and brought into the first workshopScenario and Strategy Development (2+ months) Create the Scenarios - Scenario Development Workshop (Oct) 1 day workshop over 2, ½ daysWrite the Stories - Scenario Narrative Writing and ResearchOutput: Scenario Narrative Package Explore the Scenarios - Strategic Implications Workshop (Dec)1 ½ day workshop over 2, consecutive days Output: First Draft Strategic Plan 8 Stratus, Inc. 2017
Basic Work Flow Finalize Strategic Plan (1+ months)(internally driven, collaboratively finalized) Flesh-Out Strategies - Session and additional task workCreate scope/focus, measures to track progress)Finalize Strategic Plan (1st Quarter, 2020) Output: Strategic Plan Document Update Transition to Implementation Build Adaptive Capability (optional)Design Process and Implement within RSENR for Ongoing Strategic Vigilance Monitoring Process of External EnvironmentCodified Process for Strategic Dialogue Sessions Output: Process to maintain a living, adaptive Strategic Plan 9 Stratus, Inc. 2017
Roles and Responsibilities RSENR LeadershipCreator and Owner of Strategy Content Preparatory work prior to workshops (up to 2 hours)Participate in Strategic Planning Workshops Lead Implementation of the Strategic PlanParticipate in Strategic Planning Workshops Core Team (3 to 5 individuals and Susan) Overseer of the Scenario Planning Process Participate in Strategic Planning Workshops Focused on work to be done between sessions (primary writers/editors of scenarios and Strategic Plan content) Participate in Strategic Planning Workshops Glue of overall processRECOMMENDATION: clarify individual roles and responsibilities10Stratus, Inc. 2017
What does success look like at the end of this process? 11 Stratus, Inc. 2017