Professor of Middle East Studies 30 October 2013 Larry Goodson PhD UNC 1990 Political science economics history Lived and traveled in Middle East and South Asia since 1986 U Peshawar 19861987 ID: 708208
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Slide1
The Syrian
Situation
Larry P. Goodson, Ph.D.
Professor of Middle East Studies
30 October 2013Slide2
Larry Goodson
Ph.D. (UNC, 1990)Political science, economics, historyLived and traveled in Middle East and South Asia
since 1986
U. Peshawar (1986-1987)
American U. Cairo (1994-2000)Technical Advisor for Elections, Emergency Loya Jirga (2002)U.S. Army War College (2002-Present)CENTCOM Fellow (2004)CENTCOM Assessment Team (2008-2009)Slide3
U.S. Foreign and
National Security Policy – Balancing Values and InterestsValuesRespect Universal Values (Promote Democracy)Lead Peaceful and Cooperative World Order
Interests
Ensure U.S. Security
Maintain Economic Prosperity(all from National Security Strategy 2010)Slide4
U.S. Foreign and
National Security Policy – Balancing Values and InterestsValuesRespect Universal Values (Promote Democracy)Lead Peaceful and Cooperative World Order
Interests
Ensure U.S. Security
Maintain Economic Prosperity(all from National Security Strategy 2010)Slide5
Core U.S. Interests in Middle East
President Barack ObamaWashington Speech (19 May 2011)Countering Terrorism Stopping the Spread of Nuclear WeaponsSecuring the Free Flow of Commerce
Safe-guarding the Security of the Region
Standing Up for
Israel’s SecurityPursuing Arab-Israeli PeaceSlide6Slide7
Choke PointsSlide8
U.S. Policy Toward Syria
President Barack Obama (April 2011)“We strongly oppose the Syrian government’s treatment of its citizens and we continue to oppose its continued destabilizing behavior more generally, including support for terrorism and terrorist groups. The United States will continue to stand up for democracy and the universal rights that all human beings deserve, in Syria and around the world.” Slide9
U.S. Policy Toward Syria
Perm. Rep. to UN Samantha Power (22 Oct. 2013) – “My government believes that the only viable way to end the horrific violence in Syria is through a political transition based on the Geneva Action Group Communiqué, which calls for a transitional governing body with full executive powers, chosen by mutual consent.”Sec. State John Kerry (15 Sept. 2013) – “Our focus now must remain on ending the violence, ending the indiscriminate killing, ending the creation of more and more refugees that is not only tearing Syria apart, but threatens the region itself…there is no military solution to this conflict...our overall objective is to find a political solution through diplomacy, and that needs to happen at the negotiating table…Slide10
Syria
Ancient society but young countryDamascus oldest continuously inhabited city in worldIndependence – 1946Divisions between ethnic and religious groupings
77% Arabs, 10%
Arameans
and Assyrians, 9% Kurds, 2-4% Armenians, 1% Turkomen74% Sunni, 13% Alawi, 3% Shia, 9-10% Christian, 3% DruzePopulation – 22.5 million (incl. 578,000 refugees)Slide11Slide12Slide13Slide14
Syria – Population DensitySlide15
Syria
Brittle Political System1920-1946 – King and then MandateCoups and attempted coups – 1949 (2), 1951, 1952, 1954, 1955, 1961, 1962 (2), 1963 (3), 1966 (2), 1970Baathist dictatorship – 1970-PresentLimited Economic Development
Middle East “have-not,” although oil still biggest economic sector
Creation of Lebanon
(1943) and Turkey (1923) isolated SyriaLarge public sectorIsolating geopolitical positionCivil war since 2011 killed tourismAnnual GDP p. cap. (PPP) - $5100 (2012)Slide16Slide17
Chronology and Contours of Civil War
15 March 2011 – Protests in Dera’a lead to violenceApril 2011 – Army deployed against protestorsJune 2011-Present – Protest turns into civil war300,000+ government and pro-government v. 100,000+ anti-government
80,000-100,000 killed
5 m. IDPs (19%)
2.2 m. refugees (10%)Increase in sectarianismHuman rights abuses and war crimes (130,000 detained/missing)Chemical weapons (1000 tons, 50+ sites)Regional spilloverMediation EffortsArab League, European Union, UNUN-AL Special Envoy Kofi Annan (2/12-8/12)UN Special Envoy Lakhdar Brahimi (8/12-Present) US-Russia Agreement on Chemical Weapons (9/13) and UNSCR 2118 (9/13)Slide18Slide19Slide20
Picking Sides
Pro-GovernmentSyrian Armed ForcesGeneral Security DirectorateNational Defense ForcesJaysh Al-Sha’biShabiha
Hezbollah (FTO, 1999)
Iran
RussiaChinaIsraelOpposition (NCSROF)Syrian National CoalitionFree Syrian ArmyAhfad al-
Rasul BrigadeSyrian Islamic FrontAl-
Nusra
Front (FTO 12/12)
ISIL
Saudi Arabia
Qatar
Turkey
Opposition
PYD
KNC
PKK (FTO, 2002)Slide21Slide22Slide23Slide24Slide25
The Actors
Immediate NeighborsTurkey (500,000+)Lebanon (800,000+)IsraelJordan (550,000)
Iraq (~200,000.+)
Regime Supporters
IranHezbollahRussiaChinaOpposition Supporters
TurkeySaudi ArabiaQatar
Other Gulf States
International Actors
United Nations
NATO and EU
United Kingdom
France
United States
Russia
ChinaSlide26Slide27
Regional Spillover
Refugees (2 million+)Burden on hostsStress capacity of IOs/NGOsViolenceLebanon
Israel, Jordan
Turkey, Iraq
Sanctuary for and supply routes to armed groupsTurkeyJordanSyria is a haven for VEOs
What happens when the number of refugees overwhelm the capacity of host nations and IOs/NGOs?At what point does spillover violence in Lebanon threaten internal Lebanese stability?What would trigger a Syrian ‘Cambodian incursion’ into Turkey or Jordan?
What are the longer term implications for counter-terrorism policy against VEOs in Syria?Slide28Slide29Slide30Slide31
Wicked Problem?
Sovereignty v. R2PUN Chapter VII action depends on Security CouncilUNSCR 2118 does provide for Ch. VII measures in the event of Syrian use or transfer of chemical weaponsIran and Hezbollah support Syrian regime because of its Alawite base; Russia and China also support
Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and other Gulf Arabs support some Syrian opposition because Sunni
Turkey also supports Sunni opposition, but not the Kurds
Iraqi Kurds support Syrian KurdsAl-Qa’ida supports Jabhat Al-NusraIsrael worried new Syrian government will be led by Sunni Islamists and that chemical weapons will get out of controlSlide32
Guidance and Resources
Guidance – Review existing U.S. policy on the Middle East to address challenges to U.S. interests (such as regional stability) caused by the ongoing Syrian civil war and make recommendations for improving on current potential
outcomes
Resources
– United States Policy Dossier Toward Syria, can be found at the website of the US Embassy to Brussels, Belgiumhttp://uspolicy.belgium.usembassy.gov/dossier/syria-united-states-policy-toward-syria-dossierSlide33
Advice to the War College Student
Link Issue to one or more National Interest(s)Link Policy Objective to the IssueMake certain that Policy Option(s) can achieve the ObjectiveStrategies should be:Aligned with the preferred Policy OptionAccount for all relevant policy tools (DIME)
Be assessed for F/A/S and Risk
Demonstrate
understanding of the environmentDo not overlook or exclude key facets of the problemInterests and behaviors of other state and transnational actors, as well as domestic political considerations