PPT-Tropical Convection: A Half Century Quest for Understanding

Bjerknes Memorial Lecture AGU San Francisco 4 December 2012 Robert Houze University of Washington A personal story of three great field campaigns and the evolution of meteorological satellites . 3D Structure. Let’s Talk Genesis!. Review. Nolan, . Rappin. , and . Emanuel 2007; . Khairoutdinov. . and Emanuel 2013; . Zhuo. , Held, and Garner 2014. : TC genesis can occur on f-plane . without. extratropical. circulation. Steven Feldstein and Michael Goss. The Pennsylvania State University. IUGG, Prague, June 25, 2015. Questions. :. . 1. . What is the relationship between interference, Arctic sea ice, and tropical convection and how does it impact the . Wang, C.-C., and D. J. . Kirshbaum. , . 2015. : Thermally forced convection over a mountainous tropical island. . J. . Atmos. Sci.. , 72, 2484–2506.. Outline. Observations. Control simulations. Sensitivity tests. vs. . Remote effect. Sourav Taraphdar. 1. Collaborators. :. 1. . Fuqing. Zhang, . Yonghui. . Weng. , Michael (Yue) Ying. 2. . Shuguang. Wang. 3. Juan . Fang. 1. Department of Meteorology, The Pennsylvania State University, . reporter : Lin . Ching. Based on . Dunkerton, T. J., M. T. Montgomery, and Z. Wang, 2009: Tropical . cyclogenesis. in a tropical wave critical layer: Easterly waves. . Atmos. Chem. Phys.. , . 9. , 5587–5646.. 21. st. Century Skills Framework. www.p21.org. . Elements of 21. st. Century Learning. 21. st. Century Themes. Global Awareness. Financial, Economic, Business and Entrepreneurial Literacy. Civic Literacy. http://glossary.ametsoc.org/wiki/. Tropical_cyclone. . http://glossary.ametsoc.org/wiki/. Tropical_cyclone. . Necessary, but not sufficient, conditions for tropical cyclogenesis. (Gray, 1968). Although the initial mechanisms by which tropical cyclones might form can vary from ocean basin to ocean basin, the process by which TCs develop should be similar globally. Lesson 6. What is the MJO?. Large-scale disturbance of deep convection and winds that controls up to half of the variance of tropical convection in some regions. Now known to be a major propagator of weather systems. Tropical . Cyclone . Lifecycle. http://glossary.ametsoc.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone. . http://glossary.ametsoc.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone. . TC Lifecycle Stages & Characteristics. Key structural features. Let’s Talk Genesis!. Review. Nolan, . Rappin. , and . Emanuel 2007; . Khairoutdinov. . and Emanuel 2013; . Zhuo. , Held, and Garner 2014. : TC genesis can occur on f-plane . without. . a pre-existing cyclonic disturbance through:. Jeremiah Brown and Ralph F. Milliff. NWRA, Colorado Research Associates (CoRA) Division. Boulder, CO USA. IOVWST Barcelona, May 2010. Multi-Platform Analyses of MJO Convection on Sub-Daily Timescales. Kerry Emanuel. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Several Possibly Inter-related Enigmas of the Tropical Atmosphere. Why does moist convection often cluster?. What determines the number of tropical cyclones on the planet?. GOES infrared . b. rightness temperatures (BT) . are . used to . objectively identify . overshooting tops in tropical . convection (TOTs). TOT heights are . assigned using TOT BT and NWP . profiles.. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Two Points of View. Macroscopic. : What sets the frequency of tropical cyclones on the planet? Are tropical cyclones agents in a system that maintains itself in some critical state?.