What make an ad negative Are they always bad wrong How why do voters respond to such ads Ads 2008 2012 2008 House 571000 spots 244 million Senate 578000 spots 217 million ID: 620202
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Slide1
Negative Ads
What make an ad “negative”?
Are they always bad / wrong?
How (why) do voters respond to such ads?Slide2
Ads 2008, 2012
2008
House
571,000 spots
$244 millionSenate578,000 spots$217 millionPresident1,135,000 spots$1.06 billion
2012
House
685,000 spots
$428 million
Senate
925,000 spots
$545 million
President
1,431,000 spots
$1.92 billionSlide3
Geography of spendingSlide4
Partisan differencesSlide5
Increasingly negativeSlide6
Negative Campaign Ads
As a strategy
Classic examples
What lessons
Always wrong?What effects?TurnoutVoter opinionsBlow-backSlide7
Stanford experiments, 1990s
http://
pcl.stanford.edu
/common/docs/research/
iyengar/1996/goingneg.htmlSlide8
Negative Campaign Ads
Classic examples
Begs questions:
What is negative?
What is unfair?Slide9
Negative Campaigns
Classic examples
LBJ Daisy Girl ad
1964 vs. Barry Goldwater Ad
Just onceWhat are voters supposed to hear? What did they hear?Vote LBJ, or they’ll nuke your kidSlide10
1964 & Goldwater
Daisey Girl
Ice Cream
KKK
ConventionEast coastSlide11
1964 & Goldwater
Would Goldwater have lost anyway?
Economy strong
Incumbent popular
LBJ also running positive adsNation at warGoldwater did say those thingsSlide12
Negative Campaigns
Classic Examples
Willie Horton
1988 Bush I vs. Dukakis
Lee Atwater… “only question, which hand”Just once (or twice)How define candidate?Why able to define candidate?Slide13
Negative Campaigns
Classic examples
Willie Horton
Why did this one reach legend status?
Aired only once ‘anonymously’Spawned free coverageWoven into ‘official’
campaign
message
Opinion shiftedSlide14
Negative Campaigns
Classic examples
Bush v. Dukakis 1988
Informal co-ordination (compare to superPacs
)Bush campaign could define an unknown candidate Dukakis made it easy on them TANK ADMedia felt guilty, took it out on Bush I in 1992?Slide15
Negative Campaigns?
Dukakis had it coming?
Tank photo among 100 photos that change the World
Anne Frank portrait
Fire hoses and dogs in Birmingham, ALTienneman Square (tank standoff)Slide16
TanksSlide17
1988 & Dukakis
Would Dukakis have lost anyway?
GHW Bush Reagan’s VP
Reagan popular
Economy OKSlide18
Negative Campaigns
Classic example
Jesse Helms,
Hands1990 US Senate vs. Harvey GanttContext mattersHelms campaign guilty of letters threatening black voters with jail if they voted“qualifications don’t matter…”Slide19
Negative campaigns
Playing the race card?
Call Me, Harold Ford Jr.
Corker ad
RNC / Corker campaign accused of racismWould Ford have lost anyway?TN a “red” stateSlide20
Negative Campaigns
Classic examples
Chambliss vs
Max Cleland
US Senate 2002Karl Rove painting. Vietnam vet as unpatrioticLink conservative Dem to OsBL Could ad have happened if not for 9/11?Bill Clinton said 2008 MoveOn
ad lowest thing since thisWould Cleland have lost?Slide21
Negative Campaigns
More recent examples
2004 National elections
Karl Rove
GOP, “These are the stakes”Democrats = you will die? at least that’s how they spun itSlide22
Negative Campaigns
Bush
v. Kerry, 2004
SwiftBoat
Vets (Kerry’s words) SwiftBoat Vets (Kerry lying)Independent hit from 527 orgWolvesWindsurfing
Policy content? No appeal to fear?Slide23
Kerry & 2004
Would Kerry have lost anyway?
Bush incumbent
Economy OK
Close electionKerry led in national polls until AugustNo robust response to SBVT adsSlide24
Negative Campaigns
2008
McCain
2008
First adDisrespectfulHighest percent of ads negativeObama 2008Country
EmbraceEnough $ to go negative and positiveSlide25
2008 Campaign
Any Democrat would have won
What effect of ads?
What effect of money?Slide26
2012 Primaries
SuperPac spending vs. candidate spending
Gingrich SuperPac “
What kind of man?”
Gingrich SuperPac “Blood Money”Gingrich SuperPac ad UnelectableRomney SuperPac Reagan adRomney SuperPac
UnelectableRomney Tom Brokaw adSlide27
2012 Primaries
Compare to 2008 Primary
What effect negative ads?
Romney able to beat back Newt’s SC surge in FL
Could Romney win nomination w/o negative ads?Romney’s “unfavorable” rating risingSlide28
Negative Campaigns
What lessons
Some on winning side, some on losing side
Potential to define a candidate
Goldwater, Dukakis, KerryPotential to de-mobilize (this may be goal)Potential for blowbackClinton ‘08 (3am ad
)Slide29
Negative Campaigns
When wrong
What criteria to say,
too
negative?FearRaceReligionPolicy?Do we learn something…(other than fear, race, religion..)Slide30
Negative ads
What effects?
Reduce turnout (???)
Generate interest / attention to news
Generate dissatisfaction with choices(Re)define candidateGoldwater, Dukakis, Kerry, RomneyWhat if target lacks resources to respond…Slide31
The Virtue of Negative Ads
What effects
; Prof. John G. Geer
Is there policy content/ learning
To change, to hold accountable, to change status quo needs being criticalMust have ‘vetting’Analysis of ballot initiative adsThe Geer adSlide32
Best Ads of Late
Chuck for Huck
Dale Peterson for Alabama Agriculture Commission
First
SecondSlide33
Puzzle
We know:
Ad spending mobilizes
Most spending negative
People more likely to know candidatesMore able to place candidate ideologybut ads might cause people to be wrongSlide34
Puzzle
We know:
people hate negative ads
people associate $ on negative ads with political corruption
campaigns think they know negative ads workWhat alternatives?Slide35
Reagan 1984
Thirty second version
Longer version