RASWG 12022019 Jan Uythoven Andrea Apollonio Miriam Blumenschein Risk Matrices Used in RIRE method Reliability Requirements and Initial Risk Estimation RIRE Developed by Miriam Blumenschein TEMPEMI ID: 785480
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Slide1
Risk matrices for CERN Accelerator ChainRASWG 12/02/2019
Jan Uythoven, Andrea Apollonio,
Miriam Blumenschein
Slide2Risk MatricesUsed in RIRE methodReliability Requirements and Initial Risk
Estimation (RIRE)
Developed by Miriam Blumenschein (TE-MPE-MI)
See RASWG 28/06/2018 (https://indico.cern.ch/event/738748/)This method includes a ‘Risk Matrix’ for the system one level higher than the system under study. QPS Risk Matrix of the LHCGreen zone for acceptable failure rate of the LHCFailure modes of the QPS; acceptable frequency for design etc.
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Risk Matrices, Jan Uythoven
RASWG 12/02/2019
Slide3CERN Accelerators: LHC60 seconds downtime, twice
per day…. 360’000 seconds
….
1 week downtime, once per year….330’492 secondsMultiplying this out gives, for 200 days of operation, all columns: 82.6 % machine availability3
Risk Matrices, Jan Uythoven
RASWG 12/02/2019
LHC
risk
matrix
Recovery
∞
year
month
weekdayhoursminutesFrequency1 / hour1 / day1 / week1 / month1 / year1 / 10 years1 / 100 years1 / 1000 years
Slide4Details of LHC Calculations adapted to experience
LHC Matrix
order
order
number
downtime/year seconds
# seconds
# occurrences
Recovery
seconds
1/hour
3600
4800
1/day86400400minutes60153600001/week604800200hours3600214400001/month26352007day8640015665571/year316224001week60480013304921/10 years3162240000.0546month263520011440001/100 years31622400000.0055year3162240011728001/1000 years316224000000.0005--In seconds17280000secondsTotal3013849secondsIn seconds17280000200days in yearAvailability82.56%4Risk Matrices, Jan UythovenRASWG 12/02/2019Example: 400 occurrences over 200 days of running = 2 x per dayRecovery is of the order of minutes (60 s) and takes 15 minutesDowntime over a year = 400 x 60 x 15 = 360’000 secondsDetails for the other machines in the back
Slide5Different machines5
Risk Matrices, Jan Uythoven
RASWG 12/02/2019
Availability 82.56 %
Availability
91.59 %
LINAC4
Availability
97.1 %
PSB –
PS
:
Availability
: 94.79 %
Slide6How to use the Risk MatricesReliability StudiesIdentify the down time of the different failure modes and place them in the Matrix
Gives system requirements
Engineering Change Request (ECR) implementation
5.3 R2E Impact on performance and availabilityLinked to R2E Radiation Hardness Assurance (RHA) validation docIn RHA Project Validation (RHAPV) document section on CRITICALITY Introduce Risk MatrixProvide quantitative requirements
In Engineering Specification …
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Risk Matrices, Jan Uythoven
RASWG 12/02/2019
Slide7Spare SlidesDetailed matrices
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Risk Matrices, Jan Uythoven
RASWG 12/02/2019
Slide8LHC8
Risk Matrices, Jan Uythoven
RASWG 12/02/2019
LHC Matrix
order
order
Recovery in seconds
downtime/year seconds
# seconds
# occurrences
Recovery
seconds
1/hour
360048001/day86400400minutes60153600001/week604800200hours3600214400001/month26352007day8640015665571/year316224001week60480013304921/10 years3162240000.0546month263520011440001/100 years31622400000.0055year3162240011728001/1000 years316224000000.0005--In seconds17280000secondsTotal3013849secondsIn seconds17280000200days in yearAvailability82.56%
Slide9SPS9
Risk Matrices, Jan Uythoven
RASWG 12/02/2019
SPS Matrix
order
order
number
downtime/year seconds
# seconds
# occurrences
Recovery
seconds
5
1/hour360048001/day864002000minutes6056000001/week60480086hours360026171431/month26352002day8640011888521/year3162240011/10 years3162240000.0546week6048001330491/100 years31622400000.0055month26352001144001/1000 years316224000000.0005In seconds17280000secondsTotal1453444secondsIn seconds17280000200days in yearAvailability91.59%
Slide10PSB and PS10
Risk Matrices, Jan Uythoven
RASWG 12/02/2019
PSB/PS
order
order
number
downtime/year seconds
# seconds
# occurrences
Recovery
seconds
5
1/hour36001/day864002000minutes6056000005 minutes stop, 10 times per day1/week60480029hours36002205714Main difference with LINAC41/month26352001/year316224001day864001472131/10 years3162240000.0546week6048001330491/100 years31622400000.0055month26352001144001/1000 years316224000000.0005In seconds17280000secondsTotal900377secondsIn seconds17280000200days in yearAvailability94.79%
Slide11LINAC411
Risk Matrices, Jan Uythoven
RASWG 12/02/2019
LINAC4
order
order
number
downtime/year seconds
# seconds
# occurrences
Recovery
seconds
5
1/hour36001/day864001200minutes6053600005 minutes stop, 6 times per day1/week6048001/month26352007hours36002472131/year316224001day864001472131/10 years3162240000.0546week6048001330491/100 years31622400000.0055month26352001144001/1000 years316224000000.0005In seconds17280000secondsTotal501875secondsIn seconds17280000200days in yearAvailability97.10%