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Risk matrices for CERN Accelerator Chain

RASWG 12/02/2019. Jan Uythoven, Andrea Apollonio, . Miriam Blumenschein . Risk Matrices. Used in RIRE method. Reliability Requirements and Initial Risk . Estimation (RIRE). Developed by Miriam Blumenschein (TE-MPE-MI).

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Risk matrices for CERN Accelerator Chain






Presentation on theme: "Risk matrices for CERN Accelerator Chain"— Presentation transcript:

Slide1

Risk matrices for CERN Accelerator ChainRASWG 12/02/2019

Jan Uythoven, Andrea Apollonio,

Miriam Blumenschein

Slide2

Risk MatricesUsed in RIRE methodReliability Requirements and Initial Risk

Estimation (RIRE)

Developed by Miriam Blumenschein (TE-MPE-MI)

See RASWG 28/06/2018 (https://indico.cern.ch/event/738748/)This method includes a ‘Risk Matrix’ for the system one level higher than the system under study. QPS  Risk Matrix of the LHCGreen zone for acceptable failure rate of the LHCFailure modes of the QPS; acceptable frequency for design etc.

2

Risk Matrices, Jan Uythoven

RASWG 12/02/2019

Slide3

CERN Accelerators: LHC60 seconds downtime, twice

per day…. 360’000 seconds

….

1 week downtime, once per year….330’492 secondsMultiplying this out gives, for 200 days of operation, all columns: 82.6 % machine availability3

Risk Matrices, Jan Uythoven

RASWG 12/02/2019

LHC

risk

matrix

Recovery

year

month

weekdayhoursminutesFrequency1 / hour1 / day1 / week1 / month1 / year1 / 10 years1 / 100 years1 / 1000 years

Slide4

Details of LHC Calculations adapted to experience

LHC Matrix

order

order

number

downtime/year seconds

# seconds

# occurrences

Recovery

seconds

1/hour

3600

4800

1/day86400400minutes60153600001/week604800200hours3600214400001/month26352007day8640015665571/year316224001week60480013304921/10 years3162240000.0546month263520011440001/100 years31622400000.0055year3162240011728001/1000 years316224000000.0005--In seconds17280000secondsTotal3013849secondsIn seconds17280000200days in yearAvailability82.56%4Risk Matrices, Jan UythovenRASWG 12/02/2019Example: 400 occurrences over 200 days of running = 2 x per dayRecovery is of the order of minutes (60 s) and takes 15 minutesDowntime over a year = 400 x 60 x 15 = 360’000 secondsDetails for the other machines in the back

Slide5

Different machines5

Risk Matrices, Jan Uythoven

RASWG 12/02/2019

Availability 82.56 %

Availability

91.59 %

LINAC4

Availability

97.1 %

PSB –

PS

:

Availability

: 94.79 %

Slide6

How to use the Risk MatricesReliability StudiesIdentify the down time of the different failure modes and place them in the Matrix

Gives system requirements

Engineering Change Request (ECR) implementation

5.3 R2E Impact on performance and availabilityLinked to R2E Radiation Hardness Assurance (RHA) validation docIn RHA Project Validation (RHAPV) document section on CRITICALITY  Introduce Risk MatrixProvide quantitative requirements

In Engineering Specification …

6

Risk Matrices, Jan Uythoven

RASWG 12/02/2019

Slide7

Spare SlidesDetailed matrices

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Risk Matrices, Jan Uythoven

RASWG 12/02/2019

Slide8

LHC8

Risk Matrices, Jan Uythoven

RASWG 12/02/2019

LHC Matrix

order

order

Recovery in seconds

downtime/year seconds

# seconds

# occurrences

Recovery

seconds

1/hour

360048001/day86400400minutes60153600001/week604800200hours3600214400001/month26352007day8640015665571/year316224001week60480013304921/10 years3162240000.0546month263520011440001/100 years31622400000.0055year3162240011728001/1000 years316224000000.0005--In seconds17280000secondsTotal3013849secondsIn seconds17280000200days in yearAvailability82.56%

Slide9

SPS9

Risk Matrices, Jan Uythoven

RASWG 12/02/2019

SPS Matrix

order

order

number

downtime/year seconds

# seconds

# occurrences

Recovery

seconds

5

1/hour360048001/day864002000minutes6056000001/week60480086hours360026171431/month26352002day8640011888521/year3162240011/10 years3162240000.0546week6048001330491/100 years31622400000.0055month26352001144001/1000 years316224000000.0005In seconds17280000secondsTotal1453444secondsIn seconds17280000200days in yearAvailability91.59%

Slide10

PSB and PS10

Risk Matrices, Jan Uythoven

RASWG 12/02/2019

PSB/PS

order

order

number

downtime/year seconds

# seconds

# occurrences

Recovery

seconds

5

1/hour36001/day864002000minutes6056000005 minutes stop, 10 times per day1/week60480029hours36002205714Main difference with LINAC41/month26352001/year316224001day864001472131/10 years3162240000.0546week6048001330491/100 years31622400000.0055month26352001144001/1000 years316224000000.0005In seconds17280000secondsTotal900377secondsIn seconds17280000200days in yearAvailability94.79%

Slide11

LINAC411

Risk Matrices, Jan Uythoven

RASWG 12/02/2019

LINAC4

order

order

number

downtime/year seconds

# seconds

# occurrences

Recovery

seconds

5

1/hour36001/day864001200minutes6053600005 minutes stop, 6 times per day1/week6048001/month26352007hours36002472131/year316224001day864001472131/10 years3162240000.0546week6048001330491/100 years31622400000.0055month26352001144001/1000 years316224000000.0005In seconds17280000secondsTotal501875secondsIn seconds17280000200days in yearAvailability97.10%