Recent Developments in the Irish Labour Market: A Good New - PowerPoint Presentation

Slide1

Recent Developments in the Irish Labour Market: A Good News Story?

Elish Kelly

Economic and Social Research Institute

Labour Market Symposium

Department of Public Expenditure and Reform and Department of Finance

19 May 2015Slide2

EmploymentSlide3

1. Employment

Numbers increasing since Q4 2012: Good news

But

What do we know about the

profile

of those who have entered employment, in terms of , age, gender, education, location?

Why is this of interest?

Identification of those who have gained, and which groups might need more focus/targeted intervention

Mainly graduates, so what about individuals with lower skill levels/early school leavers?

Issues: long-term unemployment , mis-match, displacement

Of interest to education, employment and unemployment policy-makersSlide4

Age Profile of those in Employment

Source:

Constructed with Q4 2014 QNHS Longitudinal Data (Aged 15-64), CSOSlide5

2. Employment

Also,

where

is the employment taking place, in terms of economic sector and geographic location?

Why is this of interest?

Are the courses individuals are pursuing (arts, the sciences, business, engineering, etc.), and the level at which they are being undertaken (HE, FET) , in line with the jobs that are being created, in terms of both sector and level?

Issues: mis-match, displacement

Also, implications for labour market activation policies e.g., training courses, etc.

And more balanced regional growth

Of interest to education, employment and unemployment policy makers Slide6

3. Employment

What do we know about the

quality

of jobs that are being created?

Full-time v part-time, permanent v temporary, employee protection, earnings?

Why is this of interest?

Important from individual perspective, in terms of stability and financial planning, mortgage repayments, new mortgage rules, childcare costs, property tax, water charges, etc.

Important from Government perspective too Slide7

Pre-Q4

2012

Q4 2012 Onwards

Professional Status:

Self-Employed

17.4

7.5

Employee

82.0

91.9

Assisting relatives

0.6

0.5Employee Scheme:CE Scheme1.04.9State-Sponsored Scheme0.11.3Non-Scheme98.993.9 Employment Type:Full-time80.467.9Part-time19.632.1Contract Type:Permanent Job97.474.3Temporary Job2.625.7Duration of Temporary Contract:< 1 Month-5.71-3 Months-21.54-6 Months-16.97-12 Months-32.513-18 Months1.56.719-24 Months8.2825-36 Months14.82.4More than 3 Years75.66.2TU Member:Yes34.27.4No65.892.6

Employment Characteristics of ‘Q4 2012 Onwards’ and ‘Pre-Q4 2014’ Job Entrants

Source:

Constructed with Q4 2014 QNHS Longitudinal Data (Aged 15-64), CSOSlide8

UnemploymentSlide9

1. Unemployment

Numbers decreasing since Q2 2012: Good news again

But, still over half of those that are unemployed are long-term unemployed (57.8%)

LTU Rate is falling (5.7% Q4 2014)

But, what is the profile of those who continue to be long-term unemployed, particularly those 2-3 years and 3 years plus?

Why is this important?

Implications for labour market activation policy – knowing the profiles of the very long term unemployed (age, gender, education, previous sector of employment, location, etc.) is important for designing measures that will be effective in assisting such individuals to reintegrate into the labour marketSlide10

In SummaryOn the surface, it is positive to see employment increasing and unemployment decreasing

But, there are deeper, more fundamental issues that need to be examined (e.g., where the jobs are being created, mis-match issues, quality of the jobs being created, profile of the long-term unemployed, etc.) and evidenced produced to inform policy developments in these areas

Today’s Labour Market Symposium is an opportunity for the policy-makers engaged in labour market policy development to begin this processSlide11

Thank You