PPT-The Inflation Bias and

what to do about it Professor Anne Sibert Spring 2012 Bad monetary policy in the 1970s and 1980s led to a revolution in central bank design in the 1990s Source IMF World Economic Outlook database. May 2015. Prospects for inflation. Chart 5.1 . CPI inflation projection based on market interest rate expectations and £375 billion purchased assets. Chart 5.2 . CPI inflation projection in . February . August 2015. Costs and prices. Chart 4.1. CPI inflation expected to remain around zero over the next few months. Bank staff projection for near-term CPI inflation. (a. ). (. a) The red diamonds show Bank staff’s central projection for CPI inflation in April, May and June 2015 at the time of the May .  . Jo van den Brand, Chris Van Den . Broeck. , . Tjonnie. Li. Nikhef. : April 23, 2010. Horizon problem, flatness problem, missing exotic particles. Horizon. : largest distance over which influences can have travelled in order to reach an observer: visible Universe of this observer. Selection bias Information bias Confounding bias Bias is an error in an epidemiologic study that results in an incorrect estimation of the association between exposure and outcome. Is present when th History and Present Status. . Motivated by . the book. :. Breakthrough Beyond the Edge of the World. Valery . Rubakov. Alexei . Starobinsky. Andrei . Linde. Vyacheslav. . Mukhanov. Vladimir . Lukash. History and Present Status. . Motivated by . the book. :. Breakthrough Beyond the Edge of the World. Valery . Rubakov. Alexei . Starobinsky. Andrei . Linde. Vyacheslav. . Mukhanov. Vladimir . Lukash. Unanticipated inflation – some people are hurt; some people gain. . For example, borrowers are helped by unanticipated inflation while lenders are hurt. . However, even anticipated inflation results in costs for the economy.. What is bias anyway?. Favoring one side, position, or belief – being partial, prejudiced,. Bias. Bias …. is prejudice;  a preconceived judgment or an opinion formed without just grounds or sufficient knowledge . Payback periods. Jung-woo Sohn (. jzs177@psu.edu. ). College of Information Sciences and Technology. Penn . State University. Announcements. Midterm . exam #1:. October 9. th. , Thursday class . time. A Reconsideration” by Narayana . Kocherlakota. Alan S. Blinder. Brookings Institution and Princeton University. BPEA, September 15, 2016. 1. This is two mini-papers. A . theoretical. discussion of why discretion is better than rules.. Inflation – a general increase in the price level. Deflation – a general decrease in the price level. Hyperinflation – extraordinarily high inflation. (Germany 1923 – prices doubled roughly every 2 days). The price level is the weighted average of prices. A decrease in money’s purchasing power. When the supply of money is growing faster than the production of goods and services.. Inflation…what is it?. Jamie Bock . (Caltech/JPL). PhysPAG. Meeting, . HEAD . @ . Chicago. . 19 August 2014. 2. Testing Inflation with CMB Polarization. Key Inflationary Observables. . First Definitive CMB Result. Nearly scale-invariant fluctuations. Alexander Klemm. “The views expressed in this presentation are of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.”. Inflation and Taxation.