Fun Profit and Export A Test That the OST Cannot Pass John D Rummel Institute of Air and Space Law McGill University Montréal Québec amp SETI Institute Mountain View California ID: 1022982
Download Presentation The PPT/PDF document "Selling Lunar Resources for" is the property of its rightful owner. Permission is granted to download and print the materials on this web site for personal, non-commercial use only, and to display it on your personal computer provided you do not modify the materials and that you retain all copyright notices contained in the materials. By downloading content from our website, you accept the terms of this agreement.
1. Selling Lunar Resources for Fun, Profit, and Export: A Test That the OST Cannot Pass?John D. RummelInstitute of Air and Space Law, McGill University, Montréal, Québec&SETI Institute, Mountain View, California4th Manfred Lachs International Conference on Conflicts in Space and the Rule of Law 27 May 2016Montréal, Quebec
2. DisclaimersThe scenarios portrayed here, all names, characters, and incidents portrayed in this production are fictitious. No identification with actual persons, places, space vehicles, bases, and/or products is intended or should be inferred.No celestial bodies, planets, natural satellites, or preferred orbits were harmed in the making of this presentation.The presentation is for information and illustrative purposes, only, and does not purport to show actual results. It is not, and should not be regarded as, investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security or course of action.Past results are no guarantee of future performance.
3. The Current Situation: Proposed Resource Recovery in SpaceThe ability to use space resources to “live off the land” was a feature of science fiction long before it was taken up for serious study by any space agency (e.g., for L-4/5 colonies, etc.)More recently, interest has been evidenced by private entities which intend to gather resources in space and sell them in space, but potentially also to markets on EarthPrecise details about plans, timelines, and the perceived customer base for these endeavors are not tightly specified, or widely shared
4. One Such Plan: Borchgrevink SynergyThe founders (Canadian, Norwegian, and American) have named the company to honor the explorer, Carsten Borchgrevink, who led the first expedition to overwinter on the Antarctic continent“B.S.”, based in the United States, is in business to mine the ices of the Lunar South PoleThe plan is to convert those ices to rocket fuel (hydrogen and oxygen) that they can sell, initially, in Earth orbitLater, customers may be found for both rocket fuel and for other products at the L-4 /5 points, and on the Moon itselfThey believe that water ice has been deposited in the “cold traps” of the lunar polar craters as a consequence of cometary and asteroidal impacts that have taken place for several billion years, chiefly elsewhere on the Moon
5. Stages in the B.S. PlanReconnaissance is the first step – are there really deposits of water ice in the lunar polar shadow zones?This image is centered on the south pole of the Moon and shows the area out to 78°S. The yellow dots show the 547 fresh looking simple craters containing permanent shadow: 6,500km2 of “shadow”.Without sunlight, sources of heat are the background energy of the universe (only 3K), reflected light, and heat flowing from the lunar interior: yielding temps of ~ 25K. Most areas receive some indirect sunlight, reaching ≤ 80K most are no hotter than about 60K, ≤ 50K at nightIt’s coldin them thar’ hills!
6. Science Concerns About the B.S. PlanThere is scientific treasure in the permanently shadowed polar environmentA record of the bombardment of the Earth-Moon system: with consequences for the emergence of life, and major extinction eventsUnique insights into lunar surface and interior processes and historyGiven the multiple sources of lunar polar volatiles, it is suspected that significant quantities of non-water materials may be collected there, including HCN (which is a bad thing…)
7. HCN has been detected from the UV/VIS Spectrometer that imaged the LCROSS Centaur impact near the South Pole of the Moon in 2009HCN is regularly detected (or inferred) to be a proportion of the volatile inventory of comets, especially those in the Kuiper beltE.g., for 2003 EL61 on a global scale, while the presence of crystalline water ice dominates the spectrum (best-fit models require that between 2/3 and 4/5 of the reflectance be attributed to pure crystalline water ice), but the addition of a second component that is blue in the near infrared dramatically increases the goodness of fit and is responsible for 1/3 to 1/4 of the reflectanceThe most likely carriers for this component are hydrogen cyanide or phyllosilicate clays. The presence of inorganic cyanide salts such as copper or potassium cyanide may explain the observed absorption beyond 2.3 µm, as has been postulated for Phoebe and other Saturnian bodiesTrujillo, et al., The Astrophysical Journal, 655:1172-1178 (2007)Science Concerns About the B.S. Plan
8. Kaguya Image of Shackleton CraterImages from Japan’s Kaguya lunar satellite revealed no sign of bright icy patches. Kaguya succeeded in imaging the inside of the crater, faintly lit by sunlight scattered from near the rim. JAXA scientists concluded that there are no exposed ice deposits inside Shackleton crater. Temperature readings were estimated at 90°K, (-297° Fahrenheit), so this finding does not rule out all possibility of the presence of ice, especially ice mixed with lunar soil, which would not show up as a reflective area on the images.
9. An OST moment regarding the B.S. PlanChallenge:Article IX provisions to “pursue studies of outer space, including the Moon and other celestial bodies, and conduct exploration of them so as to avoid their harmful contamination” would clearly be violated if B.S. were to destroy/deplete the lunar polar volatiles without regard to their scientific study.It would be obvious that such an “activity or experiment. . . would cause potentially harmful interference with [potential] activities of other States Parties in the peaceful exploration and use of outer space.” But scientific exploration would not.What to do?
10. An OST moment regarding the B.S. PlanOpportunity:Given the difficulty of conducting reconnaissance in permanently shadowed regions of the lunar poles, plus the uncertainty about the quantity and quality of the ice present (e.g., its possible cyanide components) a partnership between B.S. and a science agency would offer a way to finesse a “harmful interference” claimPartnering with one or more of the States Parties to the OST to accomplish the exploration of one or more lunar polar craters would seem to be a prudent moveSome partnerships might even make nuclear heat sources available to offset the extreme cold of those craters
11. An OST moment regarding the B.S. PlanQuestions to Be Addressed:Does a partnership with a national space agency on the reconnaissance phase act as a bar, later, to claims by B.S. to use those lunar resources for commercial purposes?A claim on lunar polar ices by a current/former partner with a national space agency may be considered to represent “national appropriation by claim of sovereignty, by means of use or occupation, or by any other means.”If not, how does B.S. show its full independence, and its private, non-sovereign nature, relative to such concerns?
12. Stages in the B.S. PlanMining the resources is the next step Whether fully robotic or human-tended, it would appear that a simple dragline installation would be effective (but it’s cold!)
13. However accomplished, mining the Moon will be logistically intensiveStages in the B.S. Plan (Shackleton Crater Planview)
14. An OST moment regarding the B.S. PlanChallenge:What is the fate of proprietary information regarding mining or other activities under the OST, given the Article XII provisions that “All stations, installations, equipment and space vehicles on the Moon and other celestial bodies shall be open to representatives of other States Parties to the Treaty on a basis of reciprocity”?
15. An OST moment regarding the B.S. PlanChallenge (cont.):The element of reciprocity can be visualized if stations, installations, equipment, and space vehicles are assigned to a signatory to the OST, but for private, commercial entities that may have been granted more than one launch license or other permit to use lunar resources, it is not clear to which entity the facilities would belongOpportunity:This is clearly an element of the OST that should be clarified and expanded within a commercial resources framework. The idea (Article VI) of “non-governmental entities in outer space” requiring “authorization and continuing supervision by the appropriate State Party to the Treaty” seems reasonable, but “appropriate” needs definition.
16. An OST moment regarding the B.S. PlanQuestions to Be Addressed:How many “appropriate State Party” authorizations are required?How many is the maximum?What entity will be established or what principle is to be used to ensure that the “appropriate State Party” does not authorize activities on the Moon and other celestial bodies that would cause “harmful interference” (Article IX) with another State Party? If “harmful interference” takes place, or could take place, what is the mechanism by which States Parties “undertake appropriate international consultations”?
17. Stages in the B.S. PlanShipping the resources to customers will be a major cost, and/or a legal challengeInitial customers are likely to be in low-Earth or Geosynchronous orbitsLater customers may be on the Moon, itself, depending on the course of lunar tourismEventually, the use of lunar materials may help to build and support deep-space colonies at the L-4 and L-5 points shown here
18. Stages in the B.S. PlanShipping the resources to customers will be a major cost, and/or a legal challenge – Permanent sunlight may provide electric-powered options that could greatly lower Moon-Earth shipping costsThis will not be the most efficient or inexpensive way to deliver lunar products to Earth
19. Stages in the B.S. PlanElectric powered linear accelerators provide a potential source of inexpensive and efficient delta-V for shipping cargo to Earth, etc.While initial mass is large, these devices would operate on only sunlight, continually plentiful at the lunar poles These devices currently have the capability to drive ≈100kg masses to lunar escape velocity
20. An OST moment regarding the B.S. PlanChallenge:There is only one problem with mass-drivers, railguns, and the like as logistical carriers: when used from beyond Earth orbit, they have the potential to act as weapons of mass destructionEnergy released upon impact is approximately ½ mv2, into Earth’s gravity well (inbound at 11kps, assuming lunar escape velocity is first reached), which results in a near-kiloton-level explosion if the impactor hits the Earth’s surface instead of entering Earth orbit (or going to L-4 or L-5)OST Article IV states that “States Parties to the Treaty undertake not to place in orbit around the Earth any objects carrying nuclear weapons or any other kinds of weapons of mass destruction, install such weapons on celestial bodies, or station such weapons in outer space in any other manner.”
21. Which?Lunar mass driver providing transport of resources to Low-Earth Orbit. Happy days in the Earth-orbitaloxygen business.16” gun projectile with high explosive rounds. Impact of 290 million Joules, explosion of 1,255 million Joules ≈ 12.4 kgfrom the Moon to Earth
22. An OST moment regarding the B.S. PlanOpportunity?I think that B.S. will have problems with this part of the Plan.I am not sure that any reasonable treaty decision would freely allow a non-governmental or governmental organization to have such a facility on the Moon without supervision by multiple States Parties.And maybe not even then: accidents do happen!
23. An OST moment regarding the B.S. PlanQuestions to Be Addressed:Would the OST allow for a mass-driver or railgun to be emplaced on the Moon for the use of B. S. without continual supervision by another entity or multiple entities and states?Is there any other way to offset logistical costs for the shipping of B.S. produced items to Earth orbit?Will B.S. have to become a local food supplier, instead?
24. SummaryThe OST can provide a foundation for some sorts of in situ resource utilization, where sovereignty issues don’t manifest themselves, but many questions remainIt is unlikely that use—even commercial use—of material from a single lunar crater would be considered a claim on the entire Earth’s MoonThe employment of those resources to support other missions, in space, would also contribute to its socialization—but would that alter the legal picture?The regulation of space systems that could be used (advertently or inadvertently) to cause mass destruction on (or near) Earth is a particular challenge for resource utilization from the MoonThe Moon provides for an uncomfortable combination of mass and velocity
25. Questions ?
26.
27. Title IV of the U.S. Commercial Space Launch Competitiveness Act of 2015 – One ResponseThe Act includes: “A United States citizen engaged in commercial recovery of an asteroid resource or a space resource under this chapter shall be entitled to any asteroid resource or space resource obtained, including to possess, own, transport, use, and sell the asteroid resource or space resource obtained in accordance with applicable law.”Perhaps most importantly, the Act requires a report that states “(1) the authorities necessary to meet the international obligations of the United States, including authorization and continuing supervision by the Federal Government; and (2) recommendations for the allocation of responsibilities among Federal agencies for the activities described in paragraph (1).”There is currently no international law that is directly applicable to authorizing recovery of space resources with attendant property rights.“Moon Man” Barry McArdle once sold shares of hisrights in the Moon to all comers, one acre at a time….