Iowa Department of Transportation Office of Systems Planning Ames Iowa 5152391629 Philmescherdotiowagov Illinois Model User Group Meeting November 8 2018 Goals Develop model standards and expectations ID: 1022808
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1. Phillip J. Mescher, AICP, CPMIowa Department of TransportationOffice of Systems PlanningAmes, Iowa515-239-1629Phil.mescher@dot.iowa.govIllinois Model User Group MeetingNovember 8, 2018
2. GoalsDevelop model standards and expectationsEstablish Consistency among modelsEnhance Model ComponentsPublish Model Policy and Procedure ManualEnhance DOT travel demand modeling assistance to Iowa’s 9 MPOsMTMUG guide standards development
3. Iowa Modeling History1960’s & 1970’sDOT ResponsibleMainframe ComputerPlanpac1980’s & 1990’sMPOs ResponsibleDesktop Computers and SoftwareTranplan & QRS II1990’s to 2010’sDOT providing more assistance and responsibility
4. What is happening?MPO modeling staff turnoverMPO model staff are now all junior level as bestDOT continual training and retaining of staffCauses? Pay, other opportunities, steep learning curve, etc.Takes a couple of years modeling to become proficientDOT not immune!Dramatic Increase in Demands on MPO staffLRTP, TIP, UPWP, PPP, CMP, Transit, Safety, Modeling, etc.MAP-21 Performance MeasuresModels at times put on “back-burner”In no time the MPO is behind the 8 ball on time
5. What is happening?Iowa DOT Assistance to MPOsModeler TrainingMTMUGModel RebuildModel Calibration/ValidationModel Scenario RunsLRTP Corridor ProjectsConsistent Software – TransCAD (DOT subsidized)Peer ExchangesHosting NHI Travel Modeling Class
6. What is happening?DOT has limitations alsoStaffing given workload requestsDOT has staff turnover at times but fairly stable (until recently)Need more expertise in Transit mode share, TOD models, survey data processing, etc.Mesoscopic and Microscopic modeling Consultant AssistanceAt times MPOs have hired consultants to help with their modeling (and LRTPs)No standards to followResults in lack of consistency among modelsDOT is left to answer the questions about inconsistency
7. NCHRP Report 288Report 288 highlights the fact that policy makers must have the ability to make informed decisions about future investments and public policies for the transportation system.Based on the investigation of the 288 committee, it was determined the current models and modeling practice is not adequate for many of the tasks to which they are being applied. They recommend that steps must be taken to improve current and future practice in metropolitan travel forecasting. Report Conclusion:More state support to modeling is needed.
8. What is happening?Several States getting more involved to help MPOs and provide an architecture for standardization.FloridaWisconsinTexasVirginiaIowaEtc.Traffic forecasts are critical to designing projects.
9. ISMSA standardized model structure to promote a certain level of consistency while allowing for flexibilityNot all MPOs are the same; even in IowaConsistency leads to enhanced credibilityProvision of continuing model development, training and application supportMany states are enacting this approach to modeling to ensure model credibility and consistency
10. Mission StatementProvide a consistent, comprehensive and standardized framework of best practices for the development and application of travel demand modeling and traffic forecasting tools. The tools will facilitate collaborative use in planning and designing transportation systems and facilities for the State of Iowa, promote sharing, and encourage continuing cooperation and good practice across the state.
11. Who’s Been Involved?We are embracing the 3C Planning ProcessWe’ve included:FHWA (Best Practice)Midwest Travel Model User GroupIowa DOT Modeling TeamHNTB Consulting EngineersMichael Baker InternationalHoward R. GreenIowa MPOsWisconsin DOTNebraska DOT
12. MTMUG Modeler SurveyWe developed a survey for all Iowa MPO modelers, DOT staff and consultants
13. MTMUG Modeler SurveyAdditional questions touched on:Model understanding and proficiency.Identification of problems encountered working with model.Asked for perspective of their agency role in modelingHow do they develop and analyze projects for LRTP?How do they use model for project development?How often is model updated?How would they like to use the model in the future?Etc.
14. Goals of ISMSBased on current and best practices and Iowa TDM user Survey:Institutionalize the use of TDM’s in the MPO planning and prioritization processes;Increase technical capabilities and understanding of MPO staff with respect to TDM development and application;Develop clear guidance and expectations with respect to the roles and responsibilities of travel demand modelers;Achieve a consistent approach to travel demand modeling across the state of Iowa’s 9 MPOs; andImplement ongoing development and maintenance practices to ensure continual readiness and currency of MPO TDM’s.
15. Policies and ProceduresIowa Modeling Policy & Procedure ManualLays out model structure, protocols, proceduresModel version managementSE Data Forecast Process/ReviewIdentifies Input DataIntegration with Iowa Statewide Model (External Analysis)Determines Model Validation ExpectationsDescribes Best PracticesCoordination with Iowa DOTGuidance on Model Application for Projects and LRTPProject Wise for File Keeping
16. Model Process Flow Chart
17. Prototype Model (Ames)Test model developed using the Ames modelTransCAD platformIncludes Time of dayTransitRobust Network for Highway and TransitIntersection control attributesParking allocationParcel Based Trip Generation Income stratificationLand use specificGravity ModelCapacity Based Traffic Assignment
18. Parcel Based Trip GenerationTrip Generation Weak Point in Most ModelsData Quality!Census Based pretty goodEmployment – not so muchIWD StoryInfogroup StoryNCHRP 08-36/Task 127 Employment DataParcel Based – Data Quality
19. Parcel DataGIS layer with data pertaining to size and use of buildings on parcel.Characteristics of each land use explicitly modeled including trip rates, income splits, time of day.Used in lieu of employment data.Will require coordinated effort with local government(s).
20. Roles and ResponsibilitiesTeam EffortMPO – DOT – Consultant AssistanceModel update kickoff meetings heldDiscuss who can do what and by whenTracking sheet for responsibilities and milestonesEach MPO has varying time availability and skill sets
21. MPO Staff Skill SetsMPO staff skills needed for ISMS implementation:GIS (portions can be conducted within ESRI)Data processing (Excel and TransCAD primarily)Reasonableness checks on TDM elementsInvestigative skills (why am I getting this result?)Understanding of transportation planning processTechnical writing (narrative of unique inputs and findings, impacts to LRTP)Skills NOT needed:Advanced travel demand modeling expertiseAdvanced TransCAD and programming expertise
22. DOT Support to MPO’sDOT staff support is flexible and dependent upon MPO need. Mostly focus on:Programmatic and technical guidance on ISMS stepsAccess to and analysis support of DOT data setsDOT to lead efforts on select technical modeling stepsValidation of all modeling stepsTransCAD technical assistance
23. How did we accomplish this?Consultant ServicesTask OrdersPolicy and Procedure ManualModel PrototypeAssist with full model rebuilds including calibration/validation to ISMS standardsTraining/assistance for DOTIndividualized Training WorkshopsOn-the-fly Q and AEtcMPO staff maintain ability to work with models at different levels of expertiseBasicModerateAdvanced
24. Where are we now?ImplementationWaterloo/Cedar Falls MPO – ImplementedDes Moines – in processCedar Rapids – in processQuad Cities – in processAmes – kicked offSioux City – kicked offOmaha/Council Bluffs – in processDubuque – Coming soon
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