起起伏伏 李骁越 密歇根大学历史系 2011 Egyptian Unrest Jan 25 Feb 11 20112012 埃及议会选举 2012 埃及总统选举 2013 年反穆兄会游行 ID: 256345
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Slide1
埃及穆斯林兄弟会的起起伏伏
李骁越
密歇根大学历史系Slide2
???Slide3
2011 Egyptian UnrestJan. 25-
Feb
.
11Slide4
2011-2012埃及议会选举Slide5
2012埃及总统选举Slide6
2013年反穆兄会游行
http
://
www.ikhwanweb.com
/Slide7
What does Wikipedia say?
Birthday:
1928
Birthplace:
Ismailia
Founding
Father:
Hassan
al-Banna
Essence
:
political Islam/ Islamist
social
movement
Ideology:
Islamism
,
Pan-Islamism,
Anti-Zionism,
Islamic
democracy
Motto:
Believers
are
but
Brothers
Slogan:
God
is
our
objective;
the
Qur’an
is
the
Constitution;
the
Prophet
is
our
leader;
jihad
is
our
way;
death
for
the
sake
of
God
is
our
wish
Slide8
Structure历史上的穆兄会王国时期(1928-52
)
纳赛尔时期(
1952-70
)
萨达特时期(
1970-81
)
穆巴拉克时期的穆兄会(
1981-2011
)
组织结构
介入政治
内部分野
后穆巴拉克时代(
2011-
)
“阿拉伯之春”
2012
年议会、总统选举
执政一年失败Slide9
王国时期的穆兄会(1928-54)“No
one
but
God
knows
how
many
nights
we
spent
reviewing
the state of the nation…analyzing the sickness, and thinking of the possible remedies. So disturbed were we that we reached the point of tears.” ---Hasan al-Banna, 1939Slide10Slide11
1919年和1939年的世界殖民版图
Slide12
If foundations are crumbling,
and
its
institutions
and
guiding
principles
are
falling
apart.
Its
political foundations are being destroyed by dictatorships, and its economic foundations are being swept away by crises. The millions of its wretched unemployed and hungry offer their testimony against it…Their
congresses
are
failures,
their
treaties
are
broken
and
their
covenants
torn
to
pieces:
their
League
of
Nation
is
a
phantasm,
possessing
neither
spirit
nor
influence,
while
their
strong
men,
along
with
other
things,
are
overthrowing
its
covenant
of
peace
and
security
.
---
Hasan
al-Banna,
“Towards
the
Light,”1947Slide13
If the French
Revolution
decreed
the
rights
of
man
and
declared
for
freedom,
equality and fraternity, and if the Russian revolution brought closer the classes and social justice for people, the great Islamic revolution decreed all that 1,300 years
before.
---
Hasan
al-Banna
Slide14
纳赛尔时期(1952-70)
纳赛尔
vs
纳吉布Slide15
纳赛尔时期(1952-70)
ٍSayyid
Qutb
vs
Hassan
Hudaybi
Extremist
vs
ModeratistSlide16
The American girl is well acquainted with her body's seductive capacity. She knows it lies in the face, and in expressive eyes, and thirsty lips. She knows seductiveness lies in the round breasts, the full buttocks, and in the shapely thighs, sleek legs—and she shows all this and does not hide it.The American is primitive in his artistic taste, both in what he enjoys as art and in his own artistic works. “Jazz” music is his music of choice. This is that music that the Negroes invented to satisfy their primitive inclinations, as well as their desire to be noisy on the one hand and to excite bestial tendencies on the other. The American’s intoxication in “jazz” music does not reach its full completion until the music is accompanied by singing that is just as coarse and obnoxious as the music itself. Meanwhile, the noise of the instruments and the voices mounts, and it rings in the ears to an unbearable degree… The agitation of the multitude increases, and the voices of approval mount, and their palms ring out in vehement, continuous applause that all but deafens the ears.
---
Sayyd
Qutb
,
“The
America
I
Have
Seen:
In
the Scale of Human Value,” 1951Slide17
Hassan HudaybiGeneral Guide
of
the
MB
(1951-73)
Preachers
not
Judgers
,
1977
Moderate
Version
of
IslamSlide18
萨达特时期(1970-81)埃及版的“改革开放
”
政治上“去纳赛尔化”
经济上试行市场经济
文化上尝试多元主义
外交上弃苏亲美Slide19
穆兄会与萨达特政权的关系暗地的同盟共同的敌人:前纳赛尔政权的左翼人士
意识形态上的敌人
伊斯兰主义对自由市场经济弊端的抨击
最终的妥协
穆兄会成为萨达特政权中的温和反对派Slide20
穆兄会80年代的扩张社会福利设施
诊所、学校、律所
在学生社团中的扩张Slide21
The Brotherhood tried several times to get us to join them but at first we weren’t convinced. The Brotherhood at that time was very weak, with a limited popular presence… it was stronger in some areas of the Delta, like Mansoura, but was virtually absent from the Sa’id. Beginning
in 1977, Mustafa
Mashhour
, in his capacity as head of the Brotherhood’s committee Youth and Universities, came to
Minya
to meet with student leaders. We slept overnight at the mosque and had long discussions, but we were not persuaded by him at all.
As we saw it, there were two path ahead. One was to create a new independent mass Islamist association, but we lacked the strong popular leadership that would be needed to accomplish this. The second was to join an already existing organization, namely the Brotherhood. We knew the Brotherhood was weak and that it had virtually no following in
Minya
or anywhere else in the Said. But our idea was that we would breath new life into the organization. So we decided to join and I gave my oath of allegiance to Mustafa
Mashhour
.
----
Abou
‘
Ela
MadiSlide22
介入政治
Party
Votes
%
Seats
+/-
National
Democratic
Party
3,756,359
72.9
390
+43
New
Wafd
Party
778,131
15.1
58
New
Socialist
Labor
Party
364,040
7.1
0
-30
National
Progressive
Unionist
Party
214,587
4.2
0
New
Socialist
Liberal
Party
33,448
0.7
0
-2
Presidential appointees
-
-
10
0
Invalid/blank votes
176,521
-
-
-
Total5,323,086100458+66
1984
年埃及议会选举Slide23
Party
Votes
%
Seats
+/-
National
Democratic
Party
4,751,758
69.9
346
-44
Islamic
Alliance
1,163,525
17
60
New
New
Wafd
Party
746,023
10.9
35
-23
Independents
7
New
National
Progressive
Unionist
Party
150,570
2.2
0
0
Umma
Party
13,031
0.2
0
New
Presidential appointees
-
-
10
0
Invalid/blank votes
402,559
-
-
-
Total
7,207,467
10045801987年埃及议会选举Slide24
Parties
Seats
Net
Gain/Loss
Seats
%
National
Democratic
Party
311
-42
68.5
New
Wafd
Party
6
-1
1.3
National
Progressive
Unionist
Party
2
-4
0.22
Tomorrow
Party
1
-1
0.2
Independents
(Muslim
Brotherhood)
88
71
19.4
Independents (other)
24
?
5.3
Unelected members
10
0
2.2
Nasserist
Party
0
-1
0
Liberal
Party
0-0Total 454100%2005年埃及议会选举Slide25
Islamists who say they belong to an illegal organization have been able to go into parliament and in a format that would make them seem like a political party…We need to think clearly about who to prevent this from happening. --- Prime Minister Ahmad
Nazif
,
2005
The Muslim Brotherhood movement, which is banned in Egypt, is a danger to security because it adopts a clear religious path…[Should this movement come to power], many will take their money and flee the country; investment will come to halt; unemployment will increase; and worse yet, Egypt will be irrevocably isolated from the world.
---
President
, Hosni Mubarak, 2007Slide26
后穆巴拉克时代(2011- )
a. “
阿拉伯之春
”
时的穆兄会在干什么
b.
穆兄会为何赢得
2012
年选举
c.
穆兄会执
政
的失败Slide27
阿拉伯之春?“The result was unprecedented: for the first time in most protestors’ memory, they outnumbered police. Even more shocking, in some places no police were in sight, as protesters paused before apartment buildings and called on those watching to join. Many did.”
----International Crisis Group
“
Mubarak asked them (military leaders) to respond with force.
Tantawi
[Defense Minister, chief of the Egyptian Armed Forces] was shocked, and told the president that this was impossible. Then Mubarak turned to the chief of the air force, and he, too, shook his head. Their answer was no.
”
---
Abou
‘
Ela
MadiSlide28Slide29
“We have embraced diversity and democratic values. In keeping with Egypt’s pluralistic society, we have demonstrated moderation in our agenda and have responsibility carried out our duties to our electoral base and Egyptians at large. Our track record of responsibility and moderation is a hallmark of our political credentials, and we will build on it.”
---
Abu
al-
FutouhSlide30
2012年选举获胜Slide31
执政出现的问题经济顽疾很难解决政治经验缺乏,不愿分享权力
组织内部凝聚力下降Slide32
谢谢大家!