埃及穆斯林兄弟会的 - PowerPoint Presentation

Slide1

埃及穆斯林兄弟会的起起伏伏

李骁越

密歇根大学历史系Slide2

？？？Slide3

2011 Egyptian UnrestJan. 25-

Feb

.

11Slide4

2011-2012埃及议会选举Slide5

2012埃及总统选举Slide6

2013年反穆兄会游行

http

://

www.ikhwanweb.com

/Slide7

What does Wikipedia say?

Birthday:

1928

Birthplace:

Ismailia

Founding

Father:

Hassan

al-Banna

Essence

：

political Islam/ Islamist

social

movement

Ideology:

Islamism

,

Pan-Islamism,

Anti-Zionism,

Islamic

democracy

Motto:

Believers

are

but

Brothers

Slogan:

God

is

our

objective;

the

Qur’an

is

the

Constitution;

the

Prophet

is

our

leader;

jihad

is

our

way;

death

for

the

sake

of

God

is

our

wish

Slide8

Structure历史上的穆兄会王国时期（1928-52

）

纳赛尔时期（

1952-70

）

萨达特时期（

1970-81

）

穆巴拉克时期的穆兄会（

1981-2011

）

组织结构

介入政治

内部分野

后穆巴拉克时代（

2011-

）

“阿拉伯之春”

2012

年议会、总统选举

执政一年失败Slide9

王国时期的穆兄会（1928-54）“No

one

but

God

knows

how

many

nights

we

spent

reviewing

the state of the nation…analyzing the sickness, and thinking of the possible remedies. So disturbed were we that we reached the point of tears.” ---Hasan al-Banna, 1939Slide10
Slide11

1919年和1939年的世界殖民版图

Slide12

If foundations are crumbling,

and

its

institutions

and

guiding

principles

are

falling

apart.

Its

political foundations are being destroyed by dictatorships, and its economic foundations are being swept away by crises. The millions of its wretched unemployed and hungry offer their testimony against it…Their

congresses

are

failures,

their

treaties

are

broken

and

their

covenants

torn

to

pieces:

their

League

of

Nation

is

a

phantasm,

possessing

neither

spirit

nor

influence,

while

their

strong

men,

along

with

other

things,

are

overthrowing

its

covenant

of

peace

and

security

.

---

Hasan

al-Banna,

“Towards

the

Light,”1947Slide13

If the French

Revolution

decreed

the

rights

of

man

and

declared

for

freedom,

equality and fraternity, and if the Russian revolution brought closer the classes and social justice for people, the great Islamic revolution decreed all that 1,300 years

before.

---

Hasan

al-Banna

Slide14

纳赛尔时期（1952-70）

纳赛尔

vs

纳吉布Slide15

纳赛尔时期（1952-70）

ٍSayyid

Qutb

vs

Hassan

Hudaybi

Extremist

vs

ModeratistSlide16

The American girl is well acquainted with her body's seductive capacity. She knows it lies in the face, and in expressive eyes, and thirsty lips. She knows seductiveness lies in the round breasts, the full buttocks, and in the shapely thighs, sleek legs—and she shows all this and does not hide it.The American is primitive in his artistic taste, both in what he enjoys as art and in his own artistic works. “Jazz” music is his music of choice. This is that music that the Negroes invented to satisfy their primitive inclinations, as well as their desire to be noisy on the one hand and to excite bestial tendencies on the other. The American’s intoxication in “jazz” music does not reach its full completion until the music is accompanied by singing that is just as coarse and obnoxious as the music itself. Meanwhile, the noise of the instruments and the voices mounts, and it rings in the ears to an unbearable degree… The agitation of the multitude increases, and the voices of approval mount, and their palms ring out in vehement, continuous applause that all but deafens the ears.

---

Sayyd

Qutb

,

“The

America

I

Have

Seen:

In

the Scale of Human Value,” 1951Slide17

Hassan HudaybiGeneral Guide

of

the

MB

(1951-73)

Preachers

not

Judgers

,

1977

Moderate

Version

of

IslamSlide18

萨达特时期（1970-81）埃及版的“改革开放

”

政治上“去纳赛尔化”

经济上试行市场经济

文化上尝试多元主义

外交上弃苏亲美Slide19

穆兄会与萨达特政权的关系暗地的同盟共同的敌人：前纳赛尔政权的左翼人士

意识形态上的敌人

伊斯兰主义对自由市场经济弊端的抨击

最终的妥协

穆兄会成为萨达特政权中的温和反对派Slide20

穆兄会80年代的扩张社会福利设施

诊所、学校、律所

在学生社团中的扩张Slide21

The Brotherhood tried several times to get us to join them but at first we weren’t convinced. The Brotherhood at that time was very weak, with a limited popular presence… it was stronger in some areas of the Delta, like Mansoura, but was virtually absent from the Sa’id. Beginning

in 1977, Mustafa

Mashhour

, in his capacity as head of the Brotherhood’s committee Youth and Universities, came to

Minya

to meet with student leaders. We slept overnight at the mosque and had long discussions, but we were not persuaded by him at all.

As we saw it, there were two path ahead. One was to create a new independent mass Islamist association, but we lacked the strong popular leadership that would be needed to accomplish this. The second was to join an already existing organization, namely the Brotherhood. We knew the Brotherhood was weak and that it had virtually no following in

Minya

or anywhere else in the Said. But our idea was that we would breath new life into the organization. So we decided to join and I gave my oath of allegiance to Mustafa

Mashhour

.

----

Abou

‘

Ela

MadiSlide22

介入政治

Party

Votes

%

Seats

+/-

National

Democratic

Party

3,756,359

72.9

390

+43

New

Wafd

Party

778,131

15.1

58

New

Socialist

Labor

Party

364,040

7.1

0

-30

National

Progressive

Unionist

Party

214,587

4.2

0

New

Socialist

Liberal

Party

33,448

0.7

0

-2

Presidential appointees

-

-

10

0

Invalid/blank votes

176,521

-

-

-

Total5,323,086100458+66

1984

年埃及议会选举Slide23

Party

Votes

%

Seats

+/-

National

Democratic

Party

4,751,758

69.9

346

-44

Islamic

Alliance

1,163,525

17

60

New

New

Wafd

Party

746,023

10.9

35

-23

Independents

7

New

National

Progressive

Unionist

Party

150,570

2.2

0

0

Umma

Party

13,031

0.2

0

New

Presidential appointees

-

-

10

0

Invalid/blank votes

402,559

-

-

-

Total

7,207,467

10045801987年埃及议会选举Slide24

Parties

Seats

Net

Gain/Loss

Seats

%

National

Democratic

Party

311

-42

68.5

New

Wafd

Party

6

-1

1.3

National

Progressive

Unionist

Party

2

-4

0.22

Tomorrow

Party

1

-1

0.2

Independents

(Muslim

Brotherhood)

88

71

19.4

Independents (other)

24

?

5.3

Unelected members

10

0

2.2

Nasserist

Party

0

-1

0

Liberal

Party

 0-0Total 454100%2005年埃及议会选举Slide25

Islamists who say they belong to an illegal organization have been able to go into parliament and in a format that would make them seem like a political party…We need to think clearly about who to prevent this from happening. --- Prime Minister Ahmad

Nazif

,

2005

The Muslim Brotherhood movement, which is banned in Egypt, is a danger to security because it adopts a clear religious path…[Should this movement come to power], many will take their money and flee the country; investment will come to halt; unemployment will increase; and worse yet, Egypt will be irrevocably isolated from the world.

---

President

, Hosni Mubarak, 2007Slide26

后穆巴拉克时代（2011- )

  a. “

阿拉伯之春

”

时的穆兄会在干什么

  b.

穆兄会为何赢得

2012

年选举

  c.

穆兄会执

政

的失败Slide27

阿拉伯之春？“The result was unprecedented: for the first time in most protestors’ memory, they outnumbered police. Even more shocking, in some places no police were in sight, as protesters paused before apartment buildings and called on those watching to join. Many did.”

----International Crisis Group

“

Mubarak asked them (military leaders) to respond with force.

Tantawi

[Defense Minister, chief of the Egyptian Armed Forces] was shocked, and told the president that this was impossible. Then Mubarak turned to the chief of the air force, and he, too, shook his head. Their answer was no.

”

---

Abou

‘

Ela

MadiSlide28
Slide29

“We have embraced diversity and democratic values. In keeping with Egypt’s pluralistic society, we have demonstrated moderation in our agenda and have responsibility carried out our duties to our electoral base and Egyptians at large. Our track record of responsibility and moderation is a hallmark of our political credentials, and we will build on it.”

---

Abu

al-

FutouhSlide30

2012年选举获胜Slide31

执政出现的问题经济顽疾很难解决政治经验缺乏，不愿分享权力

组织内部凝聚力下降Slide32

谢谢大家！