Apalachicola ChattahoocheeFlint River Basin and an Update on an Eastern US Water War Paul Ruscher ruscherplaneccedu Science Division Lane Community College Eugene Oregon ID: 626561
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A Climatological History of Drought in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin ... and an Update on an Eastern US Water War
Paul Ruscher • ruscherp@lanecc.eduScience Division • Lane Community CollegeEugene, OregonSlide2
First, the hook…Lake Jackson is a 4,000 acre lake in an enclosed 27,000 acre drainage basin north of Tallahassee, Florida. It suffers periodic drawdowns, emptying into three large sinkholes in an area of Karst topography.Image: Google MapsSlide3
September 16, 1999
Restoring a Disappearing Lake by Georgann Penson, Northwest Florida Water Management DistrictSlide4
The ACF Basin21st largest discharge of river systems in the US
Named most endangered river system in the US in 2016 (American Rivers)Under interstate water disputes (in the courts) since 1990, when US Army Corps of Engineers decided to increase water allocations to Atlanta Metropolitan area (Lake Lanier)
Stevens and Ruscher (2014, J. Hydrol
.
)
http://bit.ly/
2mo1rvSSlide5
State Water Uses in the ACFPrimary Water UsesAlabamaagriculture, industry, fisheries, recreation, preservation of habitats, power generation, navigation, water quality
GeorgiaPotable water for metro AtlantaIrrigation for agricultureUnregulated withdrawls for center-pivot irrigation
Florida35% of freshwater to Apalachee
Bay (oysters); ecology; navigationSlide6
Legal Disputes Complex Array of Uses Zone 1 – navigation, water quality and supply, hydropowerZone 2
– reduce navigationZone 3 – maintain water quality and supply; minimal hydropower; significant reduction for navigationZone 4
– significant reduction for hydropower; maintain for water quality & supplySlide7
Processed Climatological DataPRISM dataset used to improve raw climatological records at NCDC – used Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)Primary stations analyzed for records from 1895-2005Sorted into primary climate divisions for 6
subregionsImpacts of main intra-annual climate driversENSOPacific Decadal Oscillation
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscil
.
North Atlantic Oscillation
Long-term multi-year drought has major impact on water supply in the ACF, and these droughts were not typically considered as USACE modified water use plansSlide8
Canonical Correlation Analysis MethodologyCCA useful in multivariate analysis when predictors are correlated with each otherCCA helps to identify linear combinations of these predictors which have the maximum correlations with each other
Much prior research on drought in the southeast US has focused on the role of ENSO variability alone, but some newer studies suggested other factorsClimate change measures not incorporated directly into this studySlide9
Standardized Precipitation IndexAlbany, GA1897-2005
Raw precipitation data are fitted to Gamma probability distribution and then normalized into SPI, and different averaging periods are usedSlide10
Long-term VariabilitySouthern Oscillation Index (SOI) - + when La Niña, - when El NiñoPacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) - + when EPAC warmNorth Atlantic Oscillation (NAO, dashed)
– part of Arctic oscillation related to modulation of westerly winds, an atmospheric mode – others are ocean-atmosphere interactionsAtlantic Multidecadal
Oscillation (AMO, not shown above) – related to SSTSlide11
Establishment of strong subtropical ridge supports development of long-term droughtsCCA reveals dominance of NAO and AMO in drought determinations – when these are in phase and favorable for SE ridge – evident in max/min temperature series
CCA revealed long-term drought in 24-month SPI was dominated by NAO and PDO in the northern subbasins, and by SOI in the southern part (when T & precip are both used)Water releases and decision-making are focused in the water supply and use in the northern basins, so ENSO/SOI should not be the driver in decision-making!
Top DJF; Bottom MAMSlide12
2nd Test: Role of SPI in revealing differences between northernmost and southernmost zonesDominance of PDO and AMO in northernmost subbasin; varies according to SPI chosen (SPI 24 is best)
Florida subbasin dominated by SOI (ENSO) in MAM, JJA; SPI 3/6 show best resultsThis test – max/min T not utilized
Choices matter in data analysis methodolgies!
Top Upper Chat; Bottom
ApalachSlide13
US Supreme Court Action 2013-2017Florida sued Georgia in 2013 (again), alleging Georgia is misusing its water allocationJB Ruhl environmental lawyer advocating for ecosystem services approach in land use / water allocation law (former FSU law prof, now at Vanderbilt) filed amicus brief. See:
http://bit.ly/2m5kPNtCase given to Special Master (Portland, ME) and ruling Slide14
Ecosystem Services and Equitable ApportionmentRuhl: Evolutionary concept begun only about 20 years ago as ecologist, geographers, economists began working collaboratively to define how ecosystems function, and defining benefits (and costs). Cites several examples:Oregon v. Idaho (1983)
– apportionment of salmon in Snake River between two statesNew Jersey v. New York (1931) – waste discharge in Delaware impacted by NYC waste – required minimum flowsSlide15
Finding – No Valentine for Florida (2/14/2017)USACE was not named as a party to the lawsuitUSACE allocates water
Special Master could not find he could compel a solution because USACE would be required to participateNumerous lawsuits involving AL•GA•FL$71 M in legal fees FL alone since 2001
Florida loses to Georgia in water wars rulingSlide16
Special Master Key Findings – Related to DroughtHistorically, Apalachee Bay supplies 10% of national oysters, 90% of Florida supply
“There is little question that Florida has suffered harm from decreased flows in the (Apalachicola) River.”Rejection of Georgia argument of Florida mismanagement of oyster beds
Low flows higher salinity invasion of oyster predators
Georgia substantially increased unregulated agricultural consumption of water since 1970
Increased dependence on metro Atlanta water supply not in dispute
USACE considering new manual for controlling water distribution
–
which prioritizes Atlanta metro water supply
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not originally considered in authorization for the dams on the ACF
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motivation for next lawsuits?
http
://
www.miamiherald.com
/news/local/environment/article132784134.html#storylink=
cpy