AOSS 480 NRE 480 Richard B Rood Cell 3015268572 2525 Space Research Building North Campus rbroodumichedu http aossenginumichedu peoplerbrood Winter 2017 April 4 2017 ID: 804992
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Slide1
Climate Change: An Inter-disciplinary Approach to Problem Solving(AOSS 480 // NRE 480)
Richard B. Rood
Cell: 301-526-8572
2525 Space Research Building (North Campus)
rbrood@umich.edu
http://
aoss.engin.umich.edu
/people/rbrood
Winter
2017
April 4,
2017
Slide2Class Information and News
Canvas site:
CLIMATE_480_001_W17
Record of course
Rood’s
Class MediaWiki Site
http://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.php/Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Action
Rood’s Class Tumblr Site:
http://openclimate.tumblr.com
Slide3Events and NewsElizabeth
Kolbert
, April 11, 2017, Ross
https
://erb.umich.edu/2017/01/24/elizabeth-kolbert-purpose-to-impact-speaker
/
Climate Blue
Applications for COP23: Bonn
350.org, Ann Arbor Public Library, 7:00 PM,
Climate science in the Trump Administration: What do we know after the first two months?
Slide4Homework Questions?
Slide5Resources and Recommended Reading
International Energy Agency (IEA)
http://www.iea.org/
works to ensure reliable, affordable and clean energy for its 28 member countries and beyond.
Energy Information Administration (EIA)
http://www.eia.doe.gov/
keeps track of (inter)national energy use and future trends
.
Frequently Asked Questions
The
‘
wedge
’
paper:
“
A plan to keep carbon in check
”
by
Socolow
and
Pacala
, Scientific American, 2006. (
link
)
This is an influential policy-oriented paper on how to reform energy sector while still achieving economic
growth
Throughout the presentation
Slide6Resources and Recommended ReadingRood Blogs
We Like to Burn Things
All the Oil We Want
No Energy Policy and Even Less Climate Policy
Earthquakes and Climate Change
Slide7Outline: Class 15, Winter
2017
Analysis: Kaya Identity
Energy
Supply
International Policy: Paris
Energy Consumption
Economic sectors
Agriculture
End use
Logic of Obama’s Plan
Wedges: It is possible
Slide8Analysis: Kaya Identity
Slide9Kaya IdentityClimate, Energy, Population, Economy
Roger
Pielke
, Junior
The Climate Fix Book
The Climate Fix Lecture
The Climate Fix Lecture Slides
Fallacy of Magical Solutions
Slide10Climate Change Relationships
We have a clear relationship between energy use and climate change.
CLIMATE CHANGE
ENERGY
The build up of carbon dioxide is directly related to combustion of fossil fuels: coal, oil, natural gas
Slide11Context: Energy and Climate Change
Consumption // Population // Energy
CLIMATE CHANGE
ENERGY
POPULATION
CONSUMPTION
SOCIETAL SUCCESS
Slide12People
Engage in economic activity that
Uses energy from
Carbon emitting generation
Population
GDP per
person
Energy intensity of the economy
Carbon intensity of energy
P
GDP/P
TE/GDP
C/TE
Carbon emissions = C = P * GDP * TE * C
------ ---- ----
P GDP TE
Where do emissions come from?
The
“
Kaya Identity
”
see
IPCC WG 3
From
R. Pielke Jr. The Climate Fix
Slide13Less people
Smaller economy
Increase efficiency
Switch energy sources
Population management
Limit generation of wealth
Do same or more with less energy
Generate energy with less emissions
Carbon emissions = C = P * GDP * TE * C
------ ---- ----
P GDP TE
Factor
Lever
Population
GDP per
person
Energy intensity
Carbon intensity
Approach to Policy
GDP
Technology
P
GDP/P
TE/GDP
C/TE
What tools do we have to reduce emissions?
From
R. Pielke Jr. The Climate Fix
Slide14So why has energy consumption increased so much?
GDP
/person
is considered the
“
societal success
”
Energy use increases have been driven by growth in population and GDP
/person.
Energy use =
(population)
*
(GDP
/person)
*(
energy/unit GDP
)
Slide15Pielke Jr. arguesThe need for technology to make solutions possible.
Inequity of wealth, access to basic resources, desire for economic growth makes energy use an imperative
Must go
From, we use too much energy, fossil fuels are cheap
To, we need more energy, fossil fuels are expensive
Slide16Energy by Source
Slide17Energy – World Scale Dimensions
1
exajoule
(EJ) = 10 Joules
1 Quadrillion BTU (Quad) = 10 BTU
1 Terawatt (TW)=10
Gigawatts
=10 Megawatts=10
Watts
1
Mtoe
= energy equivalent of 1 million
tonnes
of oil
18
15
3
1
TWyr
≈ 30 Quads ≈ 30
EJ ≈ 750
Mtoe
World energy
consumption
(2014)
≈
517
Quads/
yr
US Energy
Consumption
(2014)
≈
98
Quads/
yr
Global petroleum consumption
≈
1 cubic mile of oil/
yr
6
12
Thanks to Mark
Barteau
Slide18World primary energy supply in 1973 and 2003
Source:
International Energy Agency 2005
*
megaton oil equivalent
Slide19Update from IEA
CO
2
Emissions from Fossil Fuels 2013
1971: About 5,500 Mtoe, 86% Fossil Fuels
2011: About 13,000 Mtoe, 80 % Fossil Fuels
Emissions by category
83% energy production
8% agricultural
6% industrial processes
3% waste
Slide202011 Energy Supply and CO2 Emissions
Source:
International Energy Agency
CO2 Emissions from Fuel Consumption
2013
Coal Top Source for Electricity, WSJ, 2014
Portion of Energy Production
Portion of CO
2
Emission
Oil 32%
Oil 35%
Coal 29%
Coal 44%
Gas 21%
Gas 20%
Other 18%
1%
13 111 Megaton oil equivalent
Slide21Historical and Projected World Energy Use by Fuel
Source: Exxon Mobil Energy Outlook, 2013
daily
consumption (2010
)
US
China
OIL
20
million barrels
8
million barrels
NATURAL GAS
60
billion cubic feet
4
billion cubic feet
COAL 3 million tons
10
million tons
(US + China = 37% of World consumption in 2010)
One cubic mile of oil per year
Thanks to Mark
Barteau
Slide22CO2
emissions arise from:
Cement production (~5 %)
Deforestation (~20 %)
Fossil fuel use (~75 %)
World Carbon Emissions
75%
Slide23International Policy: Paris
Slide24Global Mitigation Policy
Slide25Managing Climate Complexity
TEMPORAL
NEAR-TERM
LONG-TERM
SPATIAL
LOCAL
GLOBAL
WEALTH
Slide26Managing Climate Complexity
TEMPORAL
NEAR-TERM
LONG-TERM
SPATIAL
LOCAL
GLOBAL
WEALTH
Being Global, Long Term, Wealth connected, degree of difficulty is high
Slide27Development of International Approach to Climate Change
IPCC established
Kyoto Protocol
CopenhagenAccord
Framework Convention(UNFCCC)
1988
1992
1997
2007
Scientific assessment
Non-binding aim
Binding emissions target
1995
2001
2009
Keep warming less than 2 C
2015
Paris
Agreement
2013
Keep warming
substantially less
than 2
C
< 1.5C
Slide28The Official Policy is:United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
Framework Convention on Climate Change
Slide29Framework Convention on Climate Change(US in part of this.)
UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992, non-binding, voluntary, 192 signers)
Reduce CO
2
Emissions in 2000 to 1990 levels
Inventories of greenhouse gas emissions
Mitigate Climate
Change
Slide301992 Convention Commitments
All Parties agree to:
4.1.b. Mitigate emissions and enhance sinks
4.1.c. Promote technology development and transfer
4.1.e. Cooperate on research and observation
Developed Countries
’
aim to return emissions to 1990 levels by the end of the century
Slide31Framework Convention on Climate
Change
Slide32Dangerous climate change?What is dangerous?
Slide33Dangerous climate change?
Stern, 2006
Slide34World 4 Degrees Warmer
Stern, 2006
Slide35Conference of the Parties
Slide36What is COP?COP is the Conference of
the Parties
Parties are those countries who have signed the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change
. There are 192 signatories.
Essential Background UNFCCC
Slide37Michigan Observer Status
Framework Convention
Parties and Observers
Parties are signatories of Framework Convention
Observers are invited to the meeting for participation, transparency, and accountability
United Nations Representatives
Intergovernmental Organizations
Non-governmental Organizations
Virtual Participation
Slide38Assessment
Slide39Climate Assessment
Perhaps the most present accomplishment of international climate change policy is assessment
Regular ~ 5 years assessment of the state of the knowledge
Provides translation of the scientific literature for policy makers
Slide40Assessment
Mid-1990
’
s
No reduction in emissions
Evidence of warming and impacts
2001
No reduction in emissions
Evidence of warming and impacts
2007
No reduction in emissions
Evidence of warming and impacts
Slide41Increase of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
Data and more information
“
This generation has altered the composition of the atmosphere on a global scale through
…
a steady increase in carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels.
”
--Lyndon Johnson
Special Message to Congress, 1965
Slide42A trillion tons of carbonWe get to emit a trillion tons of carbon to avoid “dangerous” climate change
Slide43Trillion Tons: Carbon Visuals
Slide442015: Paris AgreementLink to Paris Agreement
White House Fact Sheet on Paris
Agreement
Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC)
Slide45Set of ReferencesCredibility of Paris Agreement
Outcomes of Paris (C2ES)
Emissions and Paris Goals
Emissions and Goals: Grantham (London School)
IEA: Emissions for COP 21
UNEP: Emissions Gap
Slide46Slide47E3G: Table 1
Slide48Emissions Trajectories
https
://www.climateinteractive.org/tools/scoreboard/scoreboard-science-and-data/
Slide49Mainstream approach – targets and timetables
From
R. Pielke Jr. The Climate Fix
Paris
Slide50Outline: Class 15, Winter
2017
Analysis: Kaya Identity
Energy
Supply
International Policy: Paris
Energy Consumption
Economic sectors
Agriculture
End use
Logic of Obama’s Plan
Wedges: It is possible
Slide51Material for Next Lecture
Slide52IEA Plots of Energy Balance and UseIEA Statistics
IEA Energy Balances
IEA Graphics: Sankey Diagram
IEA Glossary: for Balances
Slide53Trend of fossil fuel use
IEA on Renewables
In
‘
business-as-usual
’
fossil fuels will continue to dominate world energy
Currently rapid increase of coal use, globally.
International Energy Outlook, EIA, 2007
Slide54Energy Landscape (seemingly) Changes
Hydrogen Fuel Cells
Renewables and Renewable Portfolios
U.S. Trade and Solar Panels
Wind Tax Credit
Biofuels
Ethanol, Switch grass, Sugar,
Algae
Fracking
Natural Gas Displacing Coal
Methane Leakage from Fracking
Slide55Emissions from economic sectors
Some of these numbers are out of date, but balance and message is consistent over time
Details at end of presentation
Slide56Emissions from economic sectors
Industrial: creating products from raw materials (mining, cement, agriculture)
Commercial: stores, municipalities, etc.
Transportation: cars, planes, ships
US energy use by sector
EIA Annual Energy Review, 2006
Slide57US Energy Consumption (2014)
Electricity Generation (39% of total)
42% Coal, 22% Natural Gas, 22% Nuclear, 8% Hydroelectric, 5% Other Renewables,
<
1% Petroleum
Transportation Fuels (27 % of total)
92% Petroleum,
3
% Natural Gas, 5% Renewables
Very little overlap between energy sources for these two dominant sectors!
Thanks to Mark
Barteau
Slide58Agriculture: A different sliceThis is a very complex way to look at the problem
(Some) Details at end of presentation
Slide59Agriculture: A different slice
UN Food and Agriculture Organization
Livestock’s Long Shadow
Agriculture’s Role in Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Livestock and Climate Change
Rood Blogs
Greenhouse Emissions of Agriculture
We Are What We Eat
How Much Does It Cost?
Slide60Agriculture
Use of direct fossil fuel energy relatively low: ~3–4.5 % in industrialized countries.
Half of used energy and direct CO
2
emissions are from fertilizer production (Haber-Bosch process)
BUT… big contributor to deforestation and land use change.
Livestock rearing is most significant contributor
Slide61Agriculture: Livestock
Responsible for ~18 % of CO
2
equivalent GHG emissions (so including N
2
O and CH
4
)
Same share as entire US!
9 % of world CO
2
emissions
Fossil fuels burned to produce fertilizer
Deforestation and land use changes for feed production and grazing (bulk!)
37 % of world CH
4
emissions
Fermentation in cattle stomachs (biggest anthropogenic source)
Animal manure
65 % of N
2
O
Mostly from animal manure deposited on soils, with subsequent N
2
O emission
Slide62End useDetails at end of presentation
Slide63Energy consumption by end use
The three main end uses of fossil fuel are:
Electric power plants (~40 % of CO
2
emissions)
Transportation (~23 % of CO
2
emissions)
Direct use of fuel (industrial processes and heating for buildings) (~37 % of CO
2
emissions)
So ~40 % CO
2
emissions from electricity, 60 % from fuels
Socolow and Pacala , 2006
World CO
2
emissions by fuel and end use
Slide64Analysis: Kaya Identity
Slide65Kaya IdentityClimate, Energy, Population, Economy
Roger
Pielke
, Junior
The Climate Fix Book
The Climate Fix Lecture
The Climate Fix Lecture Slides
Fallacy of Magical Solutions
Slide66Less people
Smaller economy
Increase efficiency
Switch energy sources
Population management
Limit generation of wealth
Do same or more with less energy
Generate energy with less emissions
Carbon emissions = C = P * GDP * TE * C
------ ---- ----
P GDP TE
Factor
Lever
Population
GDP per
person
Energy intensity
Carbon intensity
Approach to Policy
GDP
Technology
P
GDP/P
TE/GDP
C/TE
What tools do we have to reduce emissions?
From
R. Pielke Jr. The Climate Fix
Slide67So why has energy consumption increased so much?
GDP
/person
is considered the
“
societal success
”
Energy use increases have been driven by growth in population and GDP
/person.
Energy use =
(population)
*
(GDP
/person)
*(
energy/unit GDP
)
Slide68Pielke Jr. arguesThe need for technology to make solutions possible.
Inequity of wealth, access to basic resources, desire for economic growth makes energy use an imperative
Must go
From, we use too much energy, fossil fuels are cheap
To, we need more energy, fossil fuels are expensive
Slide69Mainstream approach – targets and timetables
From
R. Pielke Jr. The Climate Fix
Paris
Slide70Emissions Trajectories
https
://www.climateinteractive.org/tools/scoreboard/scoreboard-science-and-data/
Slide71Summary: Class 15, Winter 2017
Analysis: Kaya Identity
Energy
Supply
Energy Consumption
Economic sectors
Agriculture
End
use
Slide72Summary: Class 15, Winter 2017
Energy Supply
Energy Consumption
Economic sectors
Agriculture
End use
Analysis: Kaya Identity
Slide73Outline: Class 15, Winter
2017
Energy Supply
Energy Consumption
Economic sectors
Agriculture
End use
Analysis: Kaya Identity
Slide74Appendix: Supplementary SlidesDetails on coal, oil and natural gas
Details on sectors
Details on agriculture
Details on end use
Interesting and complex summary graphic from Department of Energy
Air quality and aerosols
Responses to manage emissions
Slide75CO2 source: Deforestation
Deforestation is thus an important part of climate change:
It accounts for ~20 % of current CO
2
emissions
It accounted for ~35 % of total CO
2
emissions since preindustrial times.
Fossil fuels
320
Deforestation
200
Total
520
Compare with 590 GtC in the preindustrial atmosphere
GtC
Slide76In what forms do we consume energy?
Fossil fuels:
Coal
Oil
Natural gas
Other:
Nuclear
Hydro
Renewables (mostly biomass)
‘
Hydrogen
’
Pacala and Socolow, Science, 2004
Slide77Energy sources: Coal
Emits most CO
2
per unit energy of all fossil fuels
Accounts for
~45%
of world CO
2
emissions (2013, IEA)
Used mostly for electricity and for home heating (especially in developing nations)
Coal burning emits significant amounts of sulfur, nitrogen and particulate matter
Proven reserves are
very high
Slide78Energy sources: Oil
Emits ~75 % of coal CO
2
emissions per unit energy.
Accounts for ~
35
% of world CO
2
emissions (2013, IEA)
Dominates transportation (cars), but also used for home/building heating
Proven reserves
of conventional oil are small number of decades
After
that, unconventional
oil (fracking, tar
sands etc.
) many decades
U.S. dependency on imported oil
has been
a major national security concern
Fracking has changed the whole notion of supply and “peak oil”
Slide79Energy sources: Natural gas
Least polluting of the fossil fuels: emits
‘
only
’
~60 % of coal CO
2
per unit energy
Accounted for
~20%
of world CO
2
emissions (2013, IEA)
Used for electricity generation and home heating (same as coal)
Proven reserves
with fracking are large
Methane Leakage and Fracking
Slide80Details on Sectors
Slide81Transportation sector
Sector with fastest growing CO
2
emissions in US
Dominated by oil and road transport
Accounts for ~23 % of worldwide and ~32 % of US CO
2
emissions
EIA Annual Energy Review, 2006
U.S. energy consumption by sector
Slide82Residential and Commercial: Buildings
Both residential and commercial (stores, municipalities, etc.)
Mostly electricity, except for fuel use for space heating
Accounts for ~39 % of US energy use.
EIA Annual Energy Review, 2006
U.S. energy consumption by sector
Slide83Industrial sector
Includes mining, refining, factories, etc.
The fraction of energy used by this sector generally decreases as countries become more developed.
Also includes agriculture…
EIA Annual Energy Review, 2006
U.S. industrial energy consumption by fuel
U.S. energy consumption by sector
Slide84Details on agriculture
Slide85Agriculture: Livestock
2006 report of Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the UN:
“
The livestock sector emerges as one of the top two or three most significant contributors to the most serious environmental problems, at every scale from local to global.
”
Important economic sector:
Employs
>
billion people (mostly poor)
Occupies 30
%
of Earth
’
s land surface through grazing (26 %) and feed production
33 % of arable land for feed production
Slide86Agriculture: Livestock
Increasing demand for livestock products (meat, dairy) is one of main drivers of
deforestation
70 % of deforested land in Amazon is occupied by pastures.
Feedcrops
cover most of remaining 30 %.
Livestock-induced deforestation emits ~0.65
GtC
per year (compared to ~7
GtC
from total fossil fuel use and ~2
GtC
total deforestation)
Livestock demand increasing rapidly with increasing world wealth (India, China). Should more than double by 2050.
Slide87Details of End Use
Slide88Energy consumption by end use: Electricity
Two thirds of world electricity production comes from fossil fuels
One third from hydro and nuclear power
Slide89Cost of Electricity
Coal is cheapest and most used source of electricity in US!
Solar Photovoltaic (PV) rather expensive
Electricity generation by source, U.S., 2006
Cost of electricity in US in 2002
Source: Nathan Lewis, 2009
What is changing in this balance ?
Slide90Energy consumption by end use: Direct fuel use
‘
Direct fuel use
’
:
Transportation (oil)
Heating in buildings
Industrial processes
Dominated by oil
No real alternatives for transportation fuels
Biofuels do not mitigate CO
2
emission
Future switch to renewable-powered hydrogen and/or electric cars?
Direct Fuel Use
Pacala and Socolow, 2006
Slide91Summary graphic from Department of Energy
Slide92Summary Points: U.S. Energy
Slide93Air quality and aerosols
Slide94Aerosols, Fossil Fuels and Radiative Balance
Burning of fossil fuels is important source of particulate matter (aerosols), which helps cool climate by:
Scattering radiation
Seeding clouds
Cleaning up
‘
dirty coal
’
might thus not be good for climate…
Slide95Responses to manage emissions
What are the responses that make sense?
Regulation
Life time responsibility for product – the coke can
Improve use of current resources – efficiency
Integrate development and climate change - adaptation
What might motivate those responses?
Potential costs
Make the cost right … do not deny
“
use
”
Cost of inefficiency
Social justice issues
What might hinder those responses?
Cost – benefit
Lack of flexibility
Social justice issues
Economy versus environment
Slide96Paris Agreement
Slide97Summary of Paris AgreementFrom E3G
“E3G are the independent experts on climate diplomacy and energy policy. Our senior leadership has a combined 75 years experience advising Government, business and NGOs and a wealth of insight into what climate change means for
societies.
E3G
works to accelerate the transition to a low carbon economy. We build the broad based coalitions necessary to deliver a safe climate, we bring independence to an extremely
polarised
discussion, and we hold policy makers to account on their promises.
E3G works closely with like-minded partners in government, politics, civil society, science, the media, public interest foundations and elsewhere.
Slide98E3G: Table 1
Slide99E3G: Table 2
Slide100E3G: Table 3
Slide101E3G: Table 4