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Climate Change: An Inter-disciplinary Approach to Problem S Climate Change: An Inter-disciplinary Approach to Problem S

Climate Change: An Inter-disciplinary Approach to Problem S - PowerPoint Presentation

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Climate Change: An Inter-disciplinary Approach to Problem S - PPT Presentation

AOSS 480 NRE 480 Richard B Rood Cell 3015268572 2525 Space Research Building North Campus rbroodumichedu http aossenginumichedu peoplerbrood Winter 2015 February 10 ID: 588814

ocean climate change ice climate ocean ice change variability temperature trends summary global abrupt circulation ipcc winter state 2014

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Slide1

Climate Change: An Inter-disciplinary Approach to Problem Solving(AOSS 480 // NRE 480)

Richard B. Rood

Cell: 301-526-8572

2525 Space Research Building (North Campus)

rbrood@umich.edu

http://

aoss.engin.umich.edu

/people/rbrood

Winter 2015

February

10,

2015Slide2

Class Information and News

Ctools

site:

AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W15

Record of course

Rood’s

Class MediaWiki Site

http://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.php/Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Action

Next Tuesday,

February

17

th

, is our first guest Lecturer

Shelie

Miller, Scenario PlanningSlide3

East Coast Blizzard Assignment

Assignment and resubmissions should be open.

Amended: Revisit this assignment with regard to what has the weather been like in New England and the previous two lectures on internal variability.Slide4

Resources and Recommended Reading

IPCC (2013) Working Group 1: Summary for Policy Makers

IPCC (2013) Working Group 1: Technical Summary

IPCC (2013) Working Group 2: Summary for Policy Makers

IPCC (2013) Working Group 2: Technical Summary

National Climate Assessment (2014)Slide5

Resources and Recommended Reading

BAMS: State of the Climate

State of Climate 2009

State of the Climate

: Monthly Summary

Walther

, Ecological Response, Nature, 2002

McCarty, Ecological Consequences, Conservation Biology,

2001

Rosenzweig, Attribution of Impacts, Nature, 2008

Revkin

DotEarth

, Ocean Temperature

Rood Blog, “Just Temperature”Slide6

Outline: Class 10, Winter 2015

Climate variability and trends (

Redux

)

Trends in physical climate

Ocean

Ice

Rain

Temperature

Trends in impacts (most briefly, see IPCC WGII, and reference list)Slide7

Modes of Climate Variability

Weather – single

events

– waves, vortices

There are modes of internal variability in the climate system which cause global changes.

El Niño – La Niña

What is El Niño

North Atlantic Oscillation

Climate Prediction Center: North Atlantic Oscillation

Annular Mode

Inter-decadal Tropical Atlantic

Pacific Decadal OscillationSlide8

Ocean CirculationSlide9

The Thermohaline Circulation (THC)

(Global, organized circulation in the ocean)

(The

conveyer belt

,

rivers

within the ocean)

Where there is localized exchange of water between the surface and the deep ocean (convection)

Warm, surface currents.

Cold, bottom currents.

Green shading, high salt

Blue shading, low saltSlide10

In Class / Groups / Discussion

Thermohaline Circulation

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

In groups discuss Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation / Gulf Stream

How does it affect climate?

How does variability affect climate?

Consider:

Temperature, Ice Melting, Wind, Saltiness, Slide11

What is a stable climate?

NOAA Paleoclimate

LIQUID - ICESlide12

Younger Dryas

POSSIBLE EVIDENCE OF CHANGE IN OCEAN CIRCULATION

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?Slide13

Abrupt Climate Change

Dynamic variability in the ocean (ocean-ice-land-atmosphere interactions)

Most

scenarios of abrupt climate change are related to a phase change in some way or another. Does the albedo change quickly? Is there a change in the fresh water in the ocean? Is there a release of gas stored in something that is frozen?

It is also possible to define rapid changes in ocean (land?) ecosystems, that leads to composition changes in the atmosphere. Biology – sensitive to temperature, water, salinity,

ph

,

etc.

Lamont-Doherty: Abrupt Climate ChangeSlide14

Abrupt Climate Change (NRC)Abrupt Climate Change (2013)

, National Research Council

Abrupt Climate Change (2002)

, National Research Council

Rood Summary Blog

Wunderground:

Abrupt Climate ChangeSlide15

Climate Variability and TrendsSlide16

Time Scales of Variability

25 years

50 years

75 years

100 years

0 years

El Ni

ñ

o / La Ni

ñ

a

Arctic Oscillation

Pacific Decadal

Oscillation

LONG

SHORT

Atlantic Meridional

Overturning

Abrupt

?Slide17

January 2011 Temperature Anomalies

El Ni

ñ

o / La Ni

ñ

a

SignalSlide18

GISS Temperature 2002

1997-98 El Ni

ñ

oSlide19

Roles of Uncertainty / Variability at Different TimesHawkins and Sutton,

2009

/

Rood Lecture on UncertaintySlide20

Trends in Physical ClimateSlide21

Fig. 2.5. (

State of Climate 2009

) Time series from a range of indicators that would be expected to correlate strongly with the surface record. Note that stratospheric cooling is an expected consequence of greenhouse gas increases. A version of this figure with full references is available at

www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams-state-of-climate

/

.

Correlated behavior of different parametersSlide22

NOAA Web Resource on Ocean Heat Content

Levitus 2012 Paper on Ocean Heat Content

Abraham 2013 Paper on Ocean Heat Content and Sea LevelSlide23

Ocean Heat ContentSlide24

Ocean Heat and Sea LevelSlide25

Ice is MeltingSnow and Ice Data Center

State of the CryosphereSlide26

Muir Glacier, Alaska, in 1890 (top) and 2005 (bottom

)

95% of Earth’s glaciers are in retreat

Thanks to Paul EdwardsSlide27

Muir Glacier, Alaska, in 1941 (left) and 2004 (right).

Muir Glacier, Alaska, in 1880 (left) and 2005 (right).

Thanks to Paul EdwardsSlide28

Decline of Arctic Sea IceMovie of Arctic Sea Ice

NASA Sea Ice Collection

Increase of Antarctic Sea IceSlide29

Larsen Ice Shelf Collapse

January 31, 2002

March 5, 2002Slide30

Changes in Moisture and PrecipitationSlide31

Precipitation Extreme Events in U.S.

For example

Groisman et al.

or the

National Climate AssessmentSlide32

Just TemperatureSlide33

Current Climate

Rood Blog “Just Temperature”

For surface air temperature for the entire globe, take a 100 year, 1900-1999, average of each month. Subtract the current month from that average. When was the last month below average?

February 1985Slide34

Time series of February Slide35

Winter 2014It was very

cold

in Michigan

in Winter 2014.Slide36

Global Map January 2014 Temperature AnomalySlide37

January 2014 in PerspectiveU.S.: 53

rd

coolest, 5

th

driest

Global 4

th

WarmestSlide38

January 2014: Global TemperatureSlide39

Role of El Niño (again)Slide40

Global Map January 2014 Temperature Anomaly

Eastern Pacific Slide41

Eastern Pacific Slide42
Slide43

El

Ni

ñ

o

– La

Ni

ñ

aSlide44

The Current Climate (Released Monthly)Climate Monitoring

at

National Climatic Data Center

.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.html

State of the Climate: Global

Plant Hardiness - 2012Slide45

Trends in impacts (most briefly)Slide46

Edges and Accumulation“Edges” are places where we really might be able to see things definitively. What are the edges?

Ice (Phase transition)

Deserts

Seasons

Accumulation of heatSlide47

Project BudburstA community science activity collect observations of the onset of spring

Project Budburst

How to observe the onset of spring

National Phenology NetworkSlide48

Project of TreesA community science activity to collect observations on types of trees

Canadian Plant Hardiness Site

Paper (including yours truly) on how foresters think about climate change

McKenney et al. (2011)Slide49

Interestingly significant news storySlide50

Hardiness Map

Arbor Day Foundation Maps of Hardiness Zones

Plant Hardiness - 2012Slide51

Length of Growing Season

From Ranga B. Myneni, Boston University Slide52

Can we get a global perspective from satellites?

NDVI: Normalized Difference Vegetation Index

Looks at radiative budgets, measurements, and the absorption of photosynthetically active radiation, relative to the rest of the radiation.Slide53

How would these changes be revealed?

Changes in vegetation activity can be characterized through

changes in growing season

changes in “productivity”

Increases in Productiviy

Increases in growing season

Jan

Dec

Jul Aug

Increase

NDVI

Jan

Dec

Jul Aug

earlier spring

delayed fall

NDVI

From Compton J. Tucker, NASA GoddardSlide54

From Kirsten de BeuresSlide55

Changes in the Amplitude of the Keeling Curve(Keeling et al, 1996)

Amplitude has increased 20% in Hawaii

Amplitude has increased 40% in Alaska, Canada

The phase, start of the decrease, start of the growing season, has moved forward 7 days.Slide56

Geographical extent of warming

Osborn Spatial Extent of WarmingSlide57

Coherent and Convergent Evidence

There is evidence in both the physical climate system and ecosystems of systematic global warming.

This evidence shows correlated behavior through many systems.

Taken independently each piece could be challenged.

Taken together the evidence converges.

Consistent with human-related forcingSlide58

Summary: Class 10, Winter 2015

Climate variability and trends (

Redux

)

Internal modes of variability dominate uncertainty in short-term (decades) and at “smaller” spatial scales (continents)

Oceanic circulation critical in decadal variability and predictive skillSlide59

Summary: Class 10, Winter 2015

Trends in physical

climate

Consistent message from ocean, ice, atmosphere, land

Apparent counterfactuals? Further investigation, are they counterfactual?

Trends

in

impacts:

IPCC WG II comprehensive summary

Seasons are changing, plants are changing, birds are changing, Slide60

Outline: Class 10, Winter 2015

Climate variability and trends (

Redux

)

Trends in physical climate

Ocean

Ice

Rain

Temperature

Trends in impacts (most briefly, see IPCC WGII, and reference list)