First Meeting of the Task Force on Extreme Weather Events Rome 21 22 April 2008 4212008 2 Climate change will affect in profoundly adverse ways some of the most fundamental determinants of health food air water ID: 1029739
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1. 4/21/20081Extreme weather, water and healthFirst Meeting of the Task Force on Extreme Weather EventsRome, 21 – 22 April 2008
2. 4/21/20082Climate change will affect, in profoundly adverse ways, some of the most fundamental determinants of health: food, air, water.Margaret Chan, Director General, WHOWHO
3. 4/21/20083Extreme weather, water and healthProjected changes in water related extreme eventsHealth effectsHealth system preparedness and response: principles and elementsInternational mechanisms
4. 4/21/20084Phenomenon Observed frequencyProjections 21st centuryCold days and nights ↓Virtually certainHot days and nights↑Virtually certainWarm spells/heat-waves↑Very likelyHeavy precipitation events. ↑Very likelyIncidence of extreme high sea level ↑LikelyThe change in extreme weather events frequency is a risk to public health securityIPCC, 2007
5. 4/21/20085“The negative impacts of climate change will outweigh the benefits”Winter floods are likely to increase in maritime regions, snowmelt-related floods in Central and E. Europe, flash floods throughout Europe Coastal flooding is likely to threaten up to 2.5 million people annually Percentage of areas under high water stress may increase from 19% to 35% by the 2070s. The most prone regions are S. Europe and some parts of Central and E. Europe, where summer flows may be reduced by up to 80%. Hydropower potential of Europe is expected to decline on the average by 6%, and by 20 to 50% around the Mediterranean by the 2070s. Projected rise in surface temperature and shifts in rainfall in most countries of Asia will induce substantial declines in agricultural productivity as a consequence of thermal stress and more severe droughts and floods. Accelerated glacier melt is likely to result in a decrease in river flows as the glaciers disappear.Increase risk of drought events and associated malnutrition periods and consequent disorders, including child growth and developmentSources: Kundzewicz et al, 2007 Peseta, 2007, IPCC, 2007
6. 4/21/20086Source: IPCC, 2007
7. 4/21/20087Change in recurrence of 100-year droughts, based on comparisons between climate and water use of 1961-90 and simulations for the 2020s and 2070s (ECHAM4 and HadCM3 climate models, emissions scenario IS92a and a business-as-usual water use scenario). Values calculated with the model WaterGAP 2.1 (Lehner et al., 2005b).
8. 4/21/20088Three categories of water problems: Too much Too little Too dirtycan be exacerbated by climate change2002 floods in EuropeDamage - 20 billion EuroSummer drought of 2003 in Europe
9. 4/21/20089Extreme weather, water and healthProjected changes in water related extreme eventsHealth effectsHealth system preparedness and response: principles and elementsInternational mechanisms
10. 4/21/200810Observed impacts of changing rainfall and water availability and quality1. links between water availability, household access to improved water and the health burden due to diarrhoeal diseases;2. the role of extreme rainfall (intense rainfall or drought) in facilitating outbreaks of waterborne diseases;WHO, 20083. effects of temperature and runoff on microbiological and chemical contamination of coastal, recreational and surface waters; and4. direct effects of temperature on the incidence of diarrhoeal disease.Tanja Wolf
11. 4/21/200811Extreme weather, water and healthProjected changes in water related extreme eventsHealth effectsHealth system preparedness and response: principles and elementsInternational mechanisms
12. 4/21/200812Functions and goals of health systemsWHO, 20008
13. 4/21/200813Principles of health system preparedness and response Adopt a long-term approach for prevention as well as preparation (also for slow changes).Be broad: a multi-agency and intersectoral approach. Use existing systems and link to general emergency response systems (draw on generic emergency-planning models)Communicate effectively (useful, timely, accessible, consistent and trustworthy information to the target audience).Do not exacerbate the problem of climate change. Evaluate (effectiveness and appropriateness of interventions)WHO, 2008
14. 4/21/200814Key elements of adaptation plans for protecting human health from extreme weather events Governmental commitmentRisk assessmentAgreement on a lead body (to coordinate a multi-purpose collaborative mechanism); Accurate and timely alert systems (trigger warnings, determine the threshold for action and communicate the risks); Health information plan Particular care for vulnerable population groups; Preparedness of the health and social care system (staff training, appropriate health care and the physical environment);Reduction of exposure through structural measures (short, medium and long-term strategies);Real-time surveillance and evaluation. Matthies et al, in press
15. 4/21/200815Extreme weather, water and healthProjected changes in water related extreme eventsHealth effectsHealth system preparedness and response: principles and elementsInternational mechanisms
16. 4/21/200816The Bratislava Recommendations, 2004There is a need for ministries of health and other ministries to take action to reduce the current and future burden of disease and to include prevention of health effects among national health priorities;There is a need to improve the understanding of regional and national burden of disease due to weather and climate extremes and To identify effective interventions (early warning, surveillance and crisis management);Effective and timely coordination and collaboration among public health authorities, meteorological agencies, emergency response agencies and civil society to develop and implement comprehensive action plans to protect health from weather and climate extremes;WHO, WMO, EEA, EC, ICRC and other relevant organizations to support these commitments.WHO, 2004
17. 4/21/200817Political historical issues with health includedUNECE guidelines on flood prevention, 1999Bratislava recommendations, 2004Budapest Ministerial Conference, 2004EC green paper – White paper on adaptation to climate change (2008)
18. 4/21/200818http://www.euro.who.int/globalchangeglobalchange@ecr.euro.who.intWHO Regional Office for EuropeEuropean Centre for Environment and Health