Presented by Jenny Nagaoka and Eliza Moeller October 21 2014 Bush Institute Dallas Texas Overview Brief background on the Consortium on Chicago School Research and the College Readiness Indicator Systems Project ID: 760771
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Slide1
Building Pathways from the Middle Grades to College: Learnings from the work of the Chicago Consortium of School Research (CCSR) and CRIS
Presented by
Jenny Nagaoka and Eliza Moeller
October 21, 2014
Bush Institute
Dallas, Texas
Slide2Overview
Brief background on the Consortium on Chicago School Research and the College Readiness Indicator Systems Project
.
What matters for college success
Predictors of high school graduation
What happens in the transition to high
school
Middle grade indicators of high school and college readiness
Slide3Mission of the University of Chicago Consortium on Chicago School Research
CCSR’s mission is to support the search for solutions in ways that: build the capacity of schools to improve by identifying strategies and levers for improvement and working across all levels of the system. (Roderick, Easton, & Sebring, 2009)
We seek to
build the capacity of schools and the district
through:
Research identifying what matters
:
Organizing frameworks
Indicator development
:
The critical role of measurement
Identify leverage points
:
Support in identifying strategies for improvement
Outreach to a broad audience
:
Accessible and actionable publications and presentations and individual school data reports.
Slide4What is a College Readiness Indicator System (CRIS)?
A
system
of indicators that:
Measures distinct dimensions of college readiness: academic preparedness, college knowledge, academic tenacity
;
Allows for early identification of students in need of added supports to finish high school “college-ready
”;
Points to actions at three levels: individual, setting, and system
Slide5CRIS promotes an expanded view of college readiness
ACADEMIC PREPAREDNESS
ACADEMIC TENACITY
COLLEGE
KNOWLEDGE
Coursework, skills, and achievements needed to succeed at college-level work
Beliefs, motivation, attitudes, and behaviors needed to successfully engage with academic challenges and college-going goals
Knowledge, skills, and behaviors needed to access college and successfully navigate its demands
Slide6What matters for college success
?
Grades (B or better) and College Choice
Slide7What matters for college success
?
Grades (B or better) and College Choice
Slide8Roderick, Nagaoka, Moeller, & Coca (2006)
Slide9What are does CCSR research tell us about the importance of college knowledge and academic preparedness?
College qualifications matter :
Qualifications limit the number of college options students have
Students with low qualifications are unlikely to attain a degree.
College choice and institutions matter:
Particularly for students who are “college ready”, their probability of graduating varies by which institution they attend
.
High schools have an important role in building a college-going climate and providing structured guidance for students to fill in
college knowledge
gaps so they make informed college choices.
Slide10What matters for high school graduation
?
Grades and attendance
Slide119th graders who are on track are four times more likely to graduate than students who are off track
Allensworth and Easton (2005)
Slide12Allensworth and Easton (2005)
Slide13Allensworth and Easton (2007)
Slide14What happens in the transition to high school
?
Grades and attendance decline
Slide15Allensworth, Gwynne, Moore, & de la Torre (forthcoming
)
Slide16Allensworth, Gwynne, Moore, & de la Torre (forthcoming
)
Slide17What indicators matter for middle grades
?
Grades and attendance
Slide18What are the best indicators of high school success?
Core GPA and attendance in eighth grade best predict whether students in high school pass and earn As or
Bs
Test scores in middle grades predict whether students reach ACT’s test score benchmarks
Other information doesn’t tell us more about who will pass, get high grades or get good test scores, including…
Race, gender, special education status, bilingual status, age
Subtest scores
Grades in particular classes
Yearly test score gains and test score growth over the middle grades
Changes in grades over the middle grades
Perseverance, study habits
Discipline records, suspensions
Slide19Students’ GPA can change over the middle grade years by more than half a point
Growth in
GPA from Fifth Grade to Eighth GradeComparing students who start with similar GPA in fifth grade
Slide20Students’ attendance rates in the middle grades are also quite malleable
Growth in Attendance Rates from Fifth Grade to Eighth GradeComparing students who start with similar attendance in fifth grade
Allensworth, Gwynne, Moore, & de la Torre (forthcoming
)
Slide21Growth in Reading Test Scores from Fifth Grade to Eighth GradeComparing students who start with similar test scores in fifth grade
Students maintain the same rank order relative to their peers throughout the middle grades in ISAT reading
Highest Growth (95th percentile)
Lowest Growth (5th percentile)
Slide22Who is at risk of falling off-track and who has the potential to get B or better in high school?
Slide23Students with high absence rates or low grades in the middle grades are likely to be off-track for graduation
Note: Based on students entering ninth grade in the 2009-10 school year
Students’ risk of being off-track in ninth grade by eighth-grade core GPA and attendance rate
Slide24Students’ probability of earning As or Bs in ninth grade by core eighth-grade GPA and attendance rate
Only students with the best grades and attendance in middle school are likely (but not guaranteed) to earn As and Bs in ninth grade.
Note: Based on students entering ninth grade in the 2009-10 school year
Slide25Middle-grade information can be used to create simple indicator systems for high school graduation and college readiness with just three indicatorsFreshman on-track status and GPA are best predicted by earlier grades and attendance. High school test scores are strongly predicted by earlier test scores.Grades and attendance are much more malleable than test scores.Middle-grade indicators can identify some students at high risk of failure in ninth grade, but most students who end up off-track are not struggling in eighth grade.
Summary
Slide26An evolution of data-driven practice in the Network for College Success
Moving from On-Track to College Readiness
Slide27Network for College Success
Professional learning community of 17 diverse CPS high schools
Principals and APs
College Counselors
Instructional Leadership Teams
Freshman Success Teams
Closely affiliated with CCSR, familiar with CCSR research
Committed to making practice public
Sharing data, sharing strategies
Slide28Early, substantial, and sustained improvements in the proportion of students on-track to graduate
A History of On-Track in NCS
Slide29Slide30Early, substantial, and sustained improvements in the proportion of students on-track to graduateBig lessons learnedData is critical - know what problem you’re solvingAttendance is a huge leverWhat happens in the classroom mattersReal change is teacher-driven – and teachers need to be able to talk to each other about individual studentsChallenges remained:
A History of On-Track in NCS
Slide31Slide32Early, substantial, and sustained improvements in the proportion of students on-track to graduateBig lessons learnedData is critical - know what problem you’re solvingAttendance is a huge leverWhat happens in the classroom mattersReal change is teacher-drivenChallenges remained:Inconsistent success with the most vulnerable students – grouping by incoming test score wasn’t workingNeed help working on the problem in real timeItchiness to “move to college readiness”
A History of On-Track in NCS
Slide33Response to the Middle Grades work
Slide34ADD LIKELIHOOD OF GETTING As and Bs!!!!!!
Response to the Middle Grades work
Slide35What kinds of freshmen does each school serve?What is the “risk and opportunity” of the freshman class?How successful has each school been at keeping the students it has on-track to graduate?How successful has each school been at preparing the students it has to succeed in college?Can we manage and influence these trends in our schools in real time this year?How can we leverage the collective knowledge of our professional community to develop effective strategies for increasing success for all students?
New Approach to Freshmen Success
Slide36Response to the Middle Grades work
Slide37Students with high absence rates or low grades in the middle grades are likely to be off-track for graduation
Note: Based on students entering ninth grade in the 2009-10 school year
Students’ risk of being off-track in ninth grade by eighth-grade core GPA and attendance rate
Slide388th Grade Risk/Opportunity
8th Grade Core GPA0-1.01.0-2.02.0-3.03.0-4.0≥ 98%≥ 95%≥ 90%≥ 80%<80%
8th Grade Attendance
Slide398th Grade Risk/Opportunity
High OpportunityLess than 10% chance of being off track3.5 Average 8th Grade GPA98% Average 8th Grade AttendanceSystemwide, 31% of incoming Freshmen werein this category in 2012Opportunity10-24% chance of being off track2.8 Average 8th Grade GPA97% Average 8th Grade AttendanceSystemwide,19% of incoming Freshmen werein this category in 2012At-Risk25-49% chance of being off track2.3 Average 8th Grade GPA95% Average 8th Grade AttendanceSystemwide,34%% of incoming Freshmen werein this category in 2012High Risk50% or more chance of being off track1.6 Average 8th Grade GPA86% Average 8th Grade AttendanceSystemwide,16% of incoming Freshmen werein this category in 2012
These analyses do NOT include students who matriculate from charter schools or from outside CPS!!!!
Slide40Slide41Slide42Slide43Slide44Work Currently Underway
Real-time data
M
onitoring results for the 2014 freshman cohort
Same song:
D
ata, solving the right problem, learning from your peers, etc.
Different verse:
Discussion of limiting talent loss is different from mitigating failure
Slide45Quick Discussion
Grab an elbow partner or two and discuss…
What stood out to you about the research and data presented? Anything surprising?
What’s similar about these research findings in your local context? What’s different?
How might you use something like the “risk and opportunity” framework in your district or your school?
Slide46Discuss for each school and prepare to share with your peers:
What kind of students does your school serve?
How successful is your school doing at
Getting students on track to graduate?
G
etting students to achieve B averages?
Is your school doing better with some students than others?
Which students? How can you tell?
What is one question about teaching, learning, or student support that you’d want to ask your school’s principal?
Slide47For full pdf versions of
reports,
please visit ccsr.uchicago.edu
or
contact Jenny Nagaoka at
jkn@uchicago.edu
or Eliza Moeller at
meliza@uchicago.edu
Slide48Grades also decline substantially in 9th grade
Percent of students by GPA categories in 8th and 9th grade (same students in each year, 2008-09 in 8th grade, 2009-10 in 9th grade)
Slide49Attendance rates dramatically drop in 9th grade
Percent of students by attendance categories in 8
th
and 9
th
grade
(same students in each year, 2008-09 in 8
th
grade, 2009-10 in 9
th
grade)