Lisa Rees Department of Agricultural Economics University of MissouriColumbia December 5 2008 Introduction Risk Management Strategies Climate Risk Perceptions Ordinal Logistic Regression ID: 537351
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Slide1
What is the Impact of Livelihood Strategies on Farmers’ Climate Risk Perceptions in the Bolivian Highlands?
Lisa ReesDepartment of Agricultural EconomicsUniversity of Missouri-ColumbiaDecember 5, 2008Slide2
IntroductionRisk Management Strategies Climate Risk Perceptions
Ordinal Logistic RegressionDreadDiversification
Access to Credit
Climate Knowledge
Focus Groups conducted
Weather/Climate Change
Weather Event Severity
Ex-Ante Risk Management Strategies
Ex-Post Risk Management StrategiesSlide3
ObjectivesMain objective
- Understand how farmers’ climate risk perceptions are impacted by livelihood strategiesPerceptions are linked to their assets (financial capital and social capital) within their livelihoodSpecific objective 1- Identify and describe farmers’ climate risk perceptions of climate hazards
Identify differences by region Slide4
LiteratureLivelihood and Risk Management Strategy
Livelihoods are created by livelihood resources natural capital, financial capital, human capital and social capitalEx-Ante Risk Management Strategies (Morduch, 1995)
Diversification
Off-Farm Income
Ex-Post Risk Management Strategies (
Morduch
, 1995
Credit
Insurance
Risk Perception
Psychometric model is risk perception being a function of the properties of the hazard (Sjoberg, 2000)
Slovic (1987) identified dread and unknownSlide5
Conceptual Framework
Household
Risk
Management
Actual Risk Level
Risk Perception
Unknown
Dread
Risk Attitude
Livelihood
Strategies
Unknown
Dread
Initial Risk Perception
TIMESlide6
HypothesesH1: diversified portfolio
lower climate risk perceptionsH2: access to credit lower climate risk perceptionsH3:
access to climate information lower climate risk perceptionsH4:
lower dread feelings
lower climate risk perceptions Slide7
Overview of Ancoraimes & Umala
Altiplano
A.
B.
C. Ancoraimes
D. Umala
Lake
Titicaca
Ancoraimes
Umala
Chinchaya
Kellhuiri
San Jos
é
de Llanga
San Juan Cerca
Vinto Coopani
Choj
ň
apata
Cohani
Karcapata
Calahuancani
Lake Titicaca
La PazSlide8
Objective vs. Subjective Risk
Garcia, Raes, Jacobsen and Michel (1997) Slide9
Focus Group Findings Weather/Climate Change Hazard Severity
Experience Weather/Climate ChangeUmala- drier conditions, more wind, lower temperatures and fewer frostsAncoraimes
- drier conditions
Weather Event Severity
hail, frost, droughtSlide10
Focus Group Findings Ex-Ante Risk Management StrategiesFrost and Hail- rituals
Planting in three different areasUmalaFrost- chemicals, varietiesDrought- planting multiple timesFlooding- higher elevation, vertical furrows
Ancoraimes
Relatives
Drought- certain areas, higher elevation, plow deep, store more productsSlide11
Focus Group FindingsEx-Post Risk Management StrategiesRituals
Can’t CopeUmalaInstitutions, governmentChildren- jobsMigrate
Works for neighborsDrought- chuno
Ancoraimes
Don’t ask government
MigrateSlide12
ModelOther Income + Total Cattle + Total Sheep + Location + Dread + Access to Credit + Shock Experience + Contact Family Outside + Spanish Speaking Climate Risk PerceptionsSlide13
Ordinal Logistic Regression FindingsSlide14
Ordinal Logistic Regression FindingsSlide15
ConclusionSignificant Explanatory Variables
Diversification- income Access to creditTrusted KnowledgeNon-Significant Explanatory Variables
DreadLivestock
Further Research
Gender
Individual hazards
RitualsSlide16
ReferencesMorduch, J. (1995). "Income Smoothing and Consumption Smoothing." The Journal of
Economic Perspectives 9(3): 103-114.Slovic, P. (1987). “Perception of Risk.” Science 236: 280-285.Sjoberg, L. (2000). "Factors in Risk Perception." Risk Analysis 20(1): 1-12.