Second Congress of African Economists, Abidjan,

Transcript:Second Congress of African Economists, Abidjan,:
Second Congress of African Economists, Abidjan, Cote d’ Ivoire November 24-26, 2011 Olivia Muza Consultant Employment policy, global crisis, climate change and poverty: Africa’s conundrum of competing dimensions, dynamics and priorities? Introduction Exactly which unsolved challenges are holding back real growth ? High government and fiscal expenditure Disease/ HIV/AIDS Unemployment Global economic and financial crisis Climate change Poverty Endemic poverty Hunger Higher prevalence of disease Chronic conflicts Low levels of development Low adaptive capacity “Solve these first to lift the veil behind which the future lies hidden” [David Hilbert, 1900] Background Since the crisis began in 2007, the global economy unwell Deep and multi-dimensional crisis: economic, financial, environmental, food and energy US-financial crisis which turned into an economic crisis Developing countries-economic downturn which turned into a financial crisis Most solutions focused mainly on bank bailouts, slashing interest rates, injecting liquidity Financial interventions alone are not the magic elixir Markets are interconnected, intertwined, interdependent and dependent What are the competing dimensions, dynamics, priorities, choices and options? Is it possible to reconcile the competing paradigms? What are the areas of divergence and convergence respectively? Global trends: emerging and frontline issues How is the world doing? Rich countries- Recovery from recession is proceeding disappointingly Developing countries- growing briskly, but face tough transitions of their own A 5.7% growth recorded in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2011 raises a cloud of hope UN report on MDGs shows that progress has been made toward the 2015 achievement, despite the crisis Yet, a slack labour market exist: high unemployment The crisis of our times is the employment crisis Slower growth and job creation implies lower tax revenues, more unemployment and health benefits and a larger deficit Unemployment and vulnerability in a crisis context Between 210 and 239 million people are without jobs [Global Employment Trends Report] 620 million workers lived with their families in extreme poverty before the crisis Out of employment implies that the workforce lose the talent, skills and work habits Lost generation of workers, lost to their country, their communities and their families Remittances and foreign direct investment Reverse migration Reduced labour mobility International relations Climate variability and vulnerability in labour markets Dependence and reliance on activities that are vulnerable to climate shocks i.e. agriculture and tourism Undermining the livelihoods of millions in developing countries especially the poorest Climate change threatens to stall or reverse development gains made over the last several decades Climate migrants,