Second Congress of African Economists, Abidjan,
Description: Second Congress of African Economists, Abidjan, Cote d Ivoire November 24-26, 2011 Olivia Muza Consultant Employment policy, global crisis, climate change and poverty: Africas conundrum of competing dimensions, dynamics and priorities?
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slide1. Second Congress of African Economists, Abidjan, Cote d’ Ivoire
November 24-26, 2011
Olivia Muza
Consultant Employment policy, global crisis, climate change and poverty: Africa’s conundrum of competing dimensions, dynamics and priorities?<br>
slide2. Introduction Exactly which unsolved challenges are holding back real growth ?
High government and fiscal expenditure
Disease/ HIV/AIDS
Unemployment
Global economic and financial crisis
Climate change
Poverty
Endemic poverty
Hunger
Higher prevalence of disease
Chronic conflicts
Low levels of development
Low adaptive capacity
“Solve these first to lift the veil behind which the future lies hidden” [David Hilbert, 1900]<br>
slide3. Background Since the crisis began in 2007, the global economy unwell
Deep and multi-dimensional crisis: economic, financial, environmental, food and energy
US-financial crisis which turned into an economic crisis
Developing countries-economic downturn which turned into a financial crisis
Most solutions focused mainly on bank bailouts, slashing interest rates, injecting liquidity
Financial interventions alone are not the magic elixir
Markets are interconnected, intertwined, interdependent and dependent
What are the competing dimensions, dynamics, priorities, choices and options?
Is it possible to reconcile the competing paradigms?
What are the areas of divergence and convergence respectively?<br>
slide4. Global trends: emerging and frontline issues How is the world doing?
Rich countries- Recovery from recession is proceeding disappointingly
Developing countries- growing briskly, but face tough transitions of their own
A 5.7% growth recorded in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2011 raises a cloud of hope
UN report on MDGs shows that progress has been made toward the 2015 achievement, despite the crisis
Yet, a slack labour market exist: high unemployment
The crisis of our times is the employment crisis
Slower growth and job creation implies lower tax revenues, more unemployment and health benefits and a larger deficit<br>
slide5. Unemployment and vulnerability in a crisis context Between 210 and 239 million people are without jobs [Global Employment Trends Report]
620 million workers lived with their families in extreme poverty before the crisis
Out of employment implies that the workforce lose the talent, skills and work habits
Lost generation of workers, lost to their country, their communities and their families
Remittances and foreign direct investment
Reverse migration
Reduced labour mobility
International relations<br>
slide6. Climate variability and vulnerability in labour markets Dependence and reliance on activities that are vulnerable to climate shocks i.e. agriculture and tourism
Undermining the livelihoods of millions in developing countries especially the poorest
Climate change threatens to stall or reverse development gains made over the last several decades
Climate migrants, conflicts over scarce resources
Developed countries emitted most of the gases that are warming the planet- China recently passed the US as the top overall green house gas [GHG] emitters
By 2030, International Energy Agency [IEA] speculates that 90% of carbon dioxide emissions will come from the developing world
Disappointing enough the late-year 2010 conference in Cancun, did far too little to solve climate change itself
Furthermore, no binding treaty on reducing greenhouse emissions and institutional action plan was established<br>
slide7. Rising prices and Africa’s structural problems Reduction in the consumption basket
Poor devote half of their spending on food
Endemic poverty
Hunger
Higher prevalence of disease
Chronic conflicts
Low levels of development
Low adaptive capacity<br>
slide8. A gendered optical lens in the context of climate change, global crisis and poverty Gender differentiated impact: rural employment-which crops women produce, ability to adapt and respond e.g. Kenya and Zimbabwe, work burden, uncertainty and inability to respond to higher food prices
Men in construction industries will also suffer
Women eating least and last
Female farmers ability to respond to effective coping strategies are limited compared to male farmers
Restricted access to productive assets, technology, knowledge and inputs
Large farmer responses of increasing informal employment and use of pesticides in response affect paid employment opportunities
Negative employment effects on female-intensive non-traditional agricultural export industries
Increase in female unpaid workload
High demand for educated and qualified workers through promoting environmentally sound technologies
Linkage between employment, poverty and gender inequality either means ‘Distress sale of labour [Elson, 1999]’ or ‘Poverty status of the household’<br>
slide9. Africa’s epochal development, next generation warfare and recommendations for policy<br>
slide10. Africa’s epochal development, next generation warfare and recommendations for policy<br>
slide11. Africa’s epochal development, next generation warfare and recommendations for policy<br>
slide12. Conclusions Leave out ideology, orthodoxy and embrace creativity, flexibility and pragmatism
Transition from slack to tight labour conditions
Move away from crisis response to engaging dilemmas‘, head on strategies
Help build a shared regional knowledge base on new priories and sustainability issues<br>
November 24-26, 2011
Olivia Muza
Consultant Employment policy, global crisis, climate change and poverty: Africa’s conundrum of competing dimensions, dynamics and priorities?<br>
slide2. Introduction Exactly which unsolved challenges are holding back real growth ?
High government and fiscal expenditure
Disease/ HIV/AIDS
Unemployment
Global economic and financial crisis
Climate change
Poverty
Endemic poverty
Hunger
Higher prevalence of disease
Chronic conflicts
Low levels of development
Low adaptive capacity
“Solve these first to lift the veil behind which the future lies hidden” [David Hilbert, 1900]<br>
slide3. Background Since the crisis began in 2007, the global economy unwell
Deep and multi-dimensional crisis: economic, financial, environmental, food and energy
US-financial crisis which turned into an economic crisis
Developing countries-economic downturn which turned into a financial crisis
Most solutions focused mainly on bank bailouts, slashing interest rates, injecting liquidity
Financial interventions alone are not the magic elixir
Markets are interconnected, intertwined, interdependent and dependent
What are the competing dimensions, dynamics, priorities, choices and options?
Is it possible to reconcile the competing paradigms?
What are the areas of divergence and convergence respectively?<br>
slide4. Global trends: emerging and frontline issues How is the world doing?
Rich countries- Recovery from recession is proceeding disappointingly
Developing countries- growing briskly, but face tough transitions of their own
A 5.7% growth recorded in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2011 raises a cloud of hope
UN report on MDGs shows that progress has been made toward the 2015 achievement, despite the crisis
Yet, a slack labour market exist: high unemployment
The crisis of our times is the employment crisis
Slower growth and job creation implies lower tax revenues, more unemployment and health benefits and a larger deficit<br>
slide5. Unemployment and vulnerability in a crisis context Between 210 and 239 million people are without jobs [Global Employment Trends Report]
620 million workers lived with their families in extreme poverty before the crisis
Out of employment implies that the workforce lose the talent, skills and work habits
Lost generation of workers, lost to their country, their communities and their families
Remittances and foreign direct investment
Reverse migration
Reduced labour mobility
International relations<br>
slide6. Climate variability and vulnerability in labour markets Dependence and reliance on activities that are vulnerable to climate shocks i.e. agriculture and tourism
Undermining the livelihoods of millions in developing countries especially the poorest
Climate change threatens to stall or reverse development gains made over the last several decades
Climate migrants, conflicts over scarce resources
Developed countries emitted most of the gases that are warming the planet- China recently passed the US as the top overall green house gas [GHG] emitters
By 2030, International Energy Agency [IEA] speculates that 90% of carbon dioxide emissions will come from the developing world
Disappointing enough the late-year 2010 conference in Cancun, did far too little to solve climate change itself
Furthermore, no binding treaty on reducing greenhouse emissions and institutional action plan was established<br>
slide7. Rising prices and Africa’s structural problems Reduction in the consumption basket
Poor devote half of their spending on food
Endemic poverty
Hunger
Higher prevalence of disease
Chronic conflicts
Low levels of development
Low adaptive capacity<br>
slide8. A gendered optical lens in the context of climate change, global crisis and poverty Gender differentiated impact: rural employment-which crops women produce, ability to adapt and respond e.g. Kenya and Zimbabwe, work burden, uncertainty and inability to respond to higher food prices
Men in construction industries will also suffer
Women eating least and last
Female farmers ability to respond to effective coping strategies are limited compared to male farmers
Restricted access to productive assets, technology, knowledge and inputs
Large farmer responses of increasing informal employment and use of pesticides in response affect paid employment opportunities
Negative employment effects on female-intensive non-traditional agricultural export industries
Increase in female unpaid workload
High demand for educated and qualified workers through promoting environmentally sound technologies
Linkage between employment, poverty and gender inequality either means ‘Distress sale of labour [Elson, 1999]’ or ‘Poverty status of the household’<br>
slide9. Africa’s epochal development, next generation warfare and recommendations for policy<br>
slide10. Africa’s epochal development, next generation warfare and recommendations for policy<br>
slide11. Africa’s epochal development, next generation warfare and recommendations for policy<br>
slide12. Conclusions Leave out ideology, orthodoxy and embrace creativity, flexibility and pragmatism
Transition from slack to tight labour conditions
Move away from crisis response to engaging dilemmas‘, head on strategies
Help build a shared regional knowledge base on new priories and sustainability issues<br>