PPT-Decision Analysis Alternatives and States of Nature

Good Decisions vs Good Outcomes Payoff Matrix Decision Trees Utility Functions Decisions under Uncertainty Decisions under Risk Decision Analysis Payoff Tables Case Problem A p 38 Decision Analysis Payoff Tables. “It doesn’t matter which side of the fence you get off . on . sometimes. . What . matters most is getting off. You cannot make progress without making decisions. .”. Jim . Rohn. . “Nothing is more difficult, and therefore more precious, than to be able to decide.”. you . have . to have your . heart in your business, . and . your business in your heart. .. . Sr. . Thomas W. atson. 360PI. Consultants: . Marta Maria Godoy. Luis Fernando Barillas. Jose Andres Mendez. Psychology of Personal Decision-Making. #1. #2. #3. Agenda. Video: Perception change . Alternatives. Exercises. Creative Thinking about Alternatives. Win/win alternatives are best!. Analysis of: . Values. Management science uses a scientific approach for solving management problems. It is used in a variety of organizations to solve many different types of problems . It encompasses a logical mathematical approach to problem solving. Psychology of Personal Decision-Making. #1. #2. #3. Zero Points. Frame of reference is damn important :. EX: waterfalls and the desert. Sorrow and difficulty lower the bar. Simple things enable us to better appreciate life. SAI Meeting. Presented . by: . Ogden CSD. Overview. Ogden’s Financial Picture. Decision Analysis Process. State the Decision. Establish and Classify Objectives. List Alternatives. Evaluate Alternatives. University of Texas at Austin. Chandra R. . Bhat. Introduction: . Choice Modeling. A set of tools to predict the choice behavior of a group of decision-makers in a specific choice context.. Picture Reference: Future and Simple-Choice Modeling (by Steve Cook and Michael McGee). Entrepreneurship*. *(related to Glass Ceiling. ). Chapter Five. Copyright © 2011 by the McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.. McGraw-Hill/Irwin. Learning Objectives. LO1. Understand . the nature of . Introduction to Decision Analysis. Models help managers gain insight and understanding, but they can’t make decisions.. Decision making often remains a difficult task due to:. Uncertainty regarding the future. Introduction to Decision Analysis. Models help managers gain insight and understanding, but they can’t make decisions.. Decision making often remains a difficult task due to:. Uncertainty regarding the future. Decision . Making Styles. Planful. – A step-by-step process is used to identify alternatives and to choose one.. Painful – A lot of time and energy are spent, but a choice is not made.. Impulsive – A choice is made without adequately finding alternatives or collecting information about the self and alternatives.. National Board Meeting, Branson, MO. April 20, 2010. dennis. . dailey. , senior advisor. wilderness, recreation & trails. The operating approach our founders advocated . (BCHA webpage). :. “It was the original assumption that Back Country Horsemen would be a different type of organization, …. the Leaky Competing Accumulator Model. Psychology 209. March 4, 2013. Is the rectangle longer toward the northwest or longer toward the northeast?. Longer toward the Northeast!. 2.00”. 1.99”. A Classical Model of Decision Making:. Chapter 4. 2. Managerial Decision Making. Decision making is not easy. It must be done amid . ever-changing factors . unclear information . conflicting points of view. 3. Definition : Decision . Making.