GEF STAP IW Panel Member Dimensions of the WaterEnergyFoodSecurity Nexus at the Regional Scale Hydrologidagarna 2014 Stockholm University Structure of presentation Context WEF Nexus Cases ID: 792741
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Slide1
Jakob Granit, PhDCentre Director & Deputy Director SEIGEF STAP IW Panel Member
Dimensions of the
Water-Energy-Food-Security Nexus at the Regional Scale
Hydrologidagarna 2014
Stockholm University
Slide2Structure of presentation
Context – WEF Nexus
Cases
ConclusionsFurther work
Slide3Failure of meeting citizen and customer
demands –
the “bottom billion”
Slide4Water
Slide5More than 75% of river flows are allocated to agriculture,
i
ndustries
or domestic
purposes
Water resources
can be abundant but lack of investment makes them unavailable for
exploitation
C
limate variability
increases water resources challenges
Water scarcity:
Aggregated
global water supply
gap
estimated to be 40% by 2030 assuming
no
efficiency
gains
WRG 2030
Slide6Indicators of water quality degradation
80
% of the world’s population is exposed to high levels of threat to
human water security (HWS)
large scale transformation of water systems through land cover change, urbanization, industrialization and hydrologic infrastructure
Dead zones in coastal oceans have spread exponentially since the 1960sCoastal eutrophication fueled by riverine runoff of fertilizers and the burning of fossil fuels
(Robert
J. Diaz
&
Rutger
Rosenberg,
2008)
Vörösmarty
et.al., 2010)
Slide7G
T
ransboundary
freshwater resources – the collective action dilemma
Water (surface & ground) crosses boundaries
About 279 TB river basins in the world, 45% earth surface
(
Backer 2011)
Political & physical boundaries at local, national & international levels
Recognizing
:
The
political economy in sovereign states differ
Underlying power asymmetries to consider,
(
Zeitoun
and Warner
2006)
Only 20% of all multipartite basins
feature multilateral organisations, (Dombrowsky,2007)7 are basin wide, Cooperation compared
to conflict appears to be the norm in TB systems(Giordano and Wolf
2003)
Granit 2012
Slide8Energy
Slide99
Unequal consumption of energy
Nilsson et.al. SEI 2012
Slide10G
rowing
e
nergy c
onsumption trends & links to climate change
World energy consumption forecast to grow by 49 percent from 2007 to 2035
Fossil fuels expected to continue supply much of the energy used worldwide
85% of global energy supply in 2008
Availability of shale gas and oil is increasing
Renewable energy is relatively the fastest-growing source of electricity generation
Globally 13 % of
primary energy demand is met by renewable energy
Almost 80 percent of the increase is in hydroelectric power & wind power
Present emission trends put the world plausibly on a path toward 4°C warming within
this century
.
(WB 2012)
Quadrillion Btu
Source: International
Energy Outlook IEO 2010
,
Reference case
Slide11Food
Slide12Crop area available is being reduced
FAO
, 2011
Slide13Fertilizer use in agriculture is increasing significantly
FAO
Slide14Nexus
Slide151. Energy production
Water use in all steps of the thermal energy value chain
Water storage for hydropower
Water for bio fuels
2. Primary production
Agriculture (irrigation & rainfed)
ForestryFisheries
3. Industry & urbanization
Domestic use
Industrial use
Waste water treatment
Tourism
4. Ecosystem services
Water quality management
Biodiversity & conservation
Flood & drought protection
Navigation
Tradeoffs
Development opportunities/benefits in the nexus – conceptual model
Granit 2012, based on Phillips
, D., Allan, A.,
Claassen
, M., Granit, J., Jägerskog, A.,
Kistin
, E., Patrick, M. &
Turton
, A. (2008).
Slide16Global water
withdrawal
patterns
–
low
efficency
70%
Agriculture
; 20%
industry
; 10%
households
(IWMI 2007)
Regional
differences
& trends in
water
withdrawal
EU: 44% for energy production, 24% for agriculture,
17% for public water supply, 15% industry
(EC 2007
)USA: 40% Irrigation, 39% Thermoelectric generation, 14% Public & domestic supply, 7% Industry (US Department of Energy 2006
)
Global consumptive use part of total water withdrawal for electricity
generation is about 3-5%
(
15% of the world’s total water
withdrawal, IEO 2012)
Security of supply is important to guarantee power generation
Return flows to be managed; temperature & quality
Energy
links to water withdrawal
& water
consumption
Slide17Case South Eastern Baltic Sea Region
Slide18South Eastern-Baltic Sea Region
A micro-region defined by its
transboundary
waters lacking cooperative frameworks
Slide19Key water challenges in the micro-region – affects the economy as a whole
Supply
Deteriorating supply networks
Significant losses due to leakage
Lack of maintenance
HealthWater related disease
Exposure to toxic waste productsPollution
Point source pollution
Waste water treatment
Solid waste
management
Diffuse source pollution from agriculture
Environmental change
Climate change and hydrology impacts
Failing ecosystems
Loss of flora and fauna
Fisheries
affected
Development of protected areas
EnergyWater
for energy (cooling)Energy for water (pumping)Energy for regulation power (pump storage)
GovernanceEU BSR laws & national lawMultiple stakeholdersUnclear institutional frameworkPoor monitoring of natural & water resources
Granit, J. J., Lindström, A., Dimitrevsky, V., Guterstam, B., Hellström, M., Kindler, J., Kramen, L., Okruszko, T., Paukstys, B., Smorodinskaya, N. & Sorby, L. (2011).
Slide20Slide21The Water-Energy-Ecosystem Nexus and entry point for Neman cooperation?
Water for
energy
production
In the thermal power production process: pump, cool, treat (nuclear, coal, oil, biomass)In hydropower generation
Energy (electricity
) for water management and
supply
to
users
Pump, Treat, Store
Ecosystem services
Degradation of watersheds
Energy
Markets
Price, imports
Baltic Energy Market Integration Plan (BEMIP), BaltLink,
Slide22Case Euphrates and Tigris Region
Slide23Granit, J. & Joyce, J. (2012).
Options for Cooperative Action in the Euphrates & Tigris Region - A
hydro-economic model
to support basin-wide dialogue
Iran, Iraq, Syria and Turkey
Lack of cooperative arrangementsMajor
regional issues: salinity, dust and haze, loss of ecosystem values,
health and
loss of economic
opportunities
2 yrs
project
with
government
stakeholders
& regional organisations
Remote sensing, GIS & publicly available dataBaseline hydropower value: USD 3.5 billion/yIrrigated agriculture USD 4.8
billion/yShadow values for environmental flows Range between 286 to 515 million USDModelling & results can improve dialogue between riparian countries on regional integration benefitsMeasures to improve water use efficeny, Iraq
Nucleus for institutional framework:
Granit, J. & Joyce, J. (2012).
Slide24Characterization- Hydropower
Slide25Historical
flows
at Hit, Iraq 1937-73 vs 1974-98
Slide26Characterisation- Irrigated Agriculture
Slide27Satellite
wetland classification – 2000
Slide28Case Southern Africa Development Community
Slide29Southern African Development Community (SADC)
Slide304,885 MW
Developed
13,500 MW potential
Sources
:
WB 2009
Transboundary
Freshwater
Dispute
Database
2000
SIWI 2010, Paper 16
ORASECOM (verbal)
5,500 MW
Developed
39,000 MW potential
782 MW Developed 1000 MW Pump Storage potential
Hydropower capacity developed and potential of regional significance
Africa 63 Transboundary
basins
Slide31Oil, gas & Coal
deposits
Slide32Wind
energy
potential
Slide33Solar
energy
potential
Slide34Southern Africa Power Pool (SAPP) - Mechanism to drive
further power system & market integration
Slide35Conclusions
Slide361. Policy cohesion in energy and water called for
Water is a central component in today’s and tomorrow’s energy mix
Water is critical for fuel production and power generation
Power is needed to manage water and supply it to consumersWorld energy consumption forecast to grow by 49 percent from 2007 to 2035Water scarcity and quality degradation due to multiple demandsReal issue in many part of the world
Water and energy policies are and have been developed in isolationUrgent need to break this trend (Europe´s World #21, Special Section on water)
Granit, J. (2012) Europe’s World Summer
2012
Slide372. Power planning tools need to assess all available energy and water resources at the appropriate scale
Energy assets such as HEP, oil, coal,
wind, solar, and bioenergy
are spatially distributed in all regions globallyWater (surface & ground) crosses boundariesPolitical & physical boundaries at local, national, & international levelsUpstream & downstream issues
The generation of RE electricity through e.g. hydropower and bioenergy provides a direct feedback loop to water managementHEP and other indigenous power sources provide future price security and reduces foreign exchange requirements for fuel purchases
Using tools such as SEA allows for a systematic, and comprehensive process of evaluating power program
developmentThe environmental effects and its alternatives Using the findings in publicly accountable decision-making
Climate change mitigation & adaptation
Granit, J., King, R. M. & Noël, R. (2011)
Slide383. Regional power market development improves efficiency and reliabilityStates
cooperate when the net benefits of cooperation are perceived to be greater than the net benefits of
non-cooperation
Grey et. al. 2009Electric power trade can transfer the benefits from transboundary water management to load centers supporting integration in a region
Southern African Power Pool (SAPP)Co-management of electricity networks in a market will get each country access to a larger set of cost-effective energy sources
Many countries already share electricity grids Eg. Nordic Power Market (NORDPOL);
Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), Southern African Power Pool (SAPP) and the emerging East African Power Pool (EAPP); Mediterranean
power pool
Power and transbounday water cooperation offers a rationale for wider expansion supporting broader economic integration
Granit, J. &
Claassen
, M. (2013
)
Slide394. Large scale water storage has a key role to play in the nexus from a regional perspective
Large-scale
water storage supports economic development, builds water security and buffers against increasing rainfall
variabilityLarge potential still existsWell-designed water storage and hydropower systems can enhance both climate change adaptation and mitigationHEP is a renewable source of fuel for electric power generation that efficiently can enable other RE sources in a power system
Hydropower & pumped storage can support the deployment of other sources of Renewable Enegy (RE), peaking capacity
Environmental and social consequences at the local and regional levels need to be addressed up-front when developing water storageSee eg: World Bank Safeguard policies; WCD; Equator principles; UNEP Dams and Development; IHA Hydropower sustainability Assessment Protocol
Lindström, A., Granit, J. & Weinberg, J. (2012
)
Slide40Further work
Slide41Qualitative approach (light approach)Stakeholder driven dialogues threats and opportunties
E.g. Transboundary Waters Opportunity (TWO) analysis (SIWI 2008)
Scenario based approaches (Shell, 1972 -; SEI 2013, Sweden Green Growth)
Specialist reviewsQuantitative indicator based approachPublicly available data supported by country dataCountry surveys based on well-defined questionnaires
Describing the basin Identify key insecurities in the WEF nexus
Food & nutritionWater supply, flood and drought etc.Energy availability and accessEcosystem servicesS
takeholder dialogues to identify opportunities and barriers Cooperative analysis and next steps
Quantitative modelling approaches (comprehensive)
e.g
:
SEI integrated
Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP)
and
Long Range Energy Alternatives System Planning (LEAP) Model (SEI 2012)
Hydro-economic modelling (SIWI 2012
)
Climate, Land use, Energy, and
Water Model (CLEW)
(KTH 2011)
Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) approaches: EU/Espoo Convention, World Bank (2007)Granit, J., Fogde, M., Hoff, H., Joyce, J., Karlberg, L., Kuylenstierna, J. and Rosemarin, A. (2013)
Methodology approaches- assessing the nexus in a continuum
Slide42Thanks to Andreas Lindström, Marius
Claassen
, Kevin
Rosner,
Charles Heap, David Purkey and many more