Alexander Wuttke kunkakom June 11 2016 Chair for Political Psychology University of Mannheim Better the devil you dont know than the devil you do The gap in the literature ID: 799440
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Slide1
New political parties through the voter´s eyes
Alexander Wuttke@kunkakom
June 11, 2016
Chair for Political Psychology, University of Mannheim
Better the devil you don´t know
than the devil you do
Slide2The gap in the literature
Observational Units: Parties or
Party systems Insights
: Institutional, cultural influences; trends
over
time
(Implicit) assumptions on individual voter calculusConnecting hypotheses on party emergence with theories on voter behavior
12. Juli 2016
Slide3Macro-Level explanations: Issue-Driven
Party systems as dynamic equilibriaElectoral market: policy demands and policy offerings
New parties counterbalance disturbancesNew parties maintain party
systems´s responsiveness
12. Juli 2016
Slide4Macro-Level explanations: Protest-Driven
New party entry despite occupied policy spacesEntering as purifiers or based on a “project of newness”Reflecting and channeling anti-
partyist resentment
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Slide5Rivalling explanations
Issue-Emergence
Protest-Emergence
Requirements on Macro-Level
Empty-Policy Space
Widespread Dissatisfaction
Voter Calculus
Issue-Driven
Protest-driven
Advantage of
Newnewss
No
Yes
New
parties
´
functionRestoring ResponsivenessReflecting Distrust
12. Juli 2016
Slide6The (new-party-) voters´calculus:
Insights from the literature on vote switching
Mirroring
discussion on vote switchingOptimistic camp: Voter
switchers
as ideal type citizens Skeptical Camp: Frustrated floating voter
My thought: Frustrated
floating
voters
as
a
nutrient
for
new
-party
emergence12. Juli 2016
Slide7Hypotheses
H1: More than for other parties, the vote choice for a new party is determined by a generalized political dissatisfaction.H2: Less than for other parties, the vote choice for new parties is less strongly influenced by the evaluation towards that party.
H3: Less than for other parties, the vote choice for new parties is less strongly influenced by the ideological closeness to that party.
H4: Over the course of multiple elections, a substantial segment of the frustrated floating voters is swayed from one new party to the other.
12. Juli 2016
Slide8Hypotheses
H5: Compared to the previous election, the ideological benefit of party switching is smaller among new party voters than it is among other switchers. H6: Compared to the previous election, voting for a new political party does not reduce political alienation.
12. Juli 2016
Slide9DataGerman
Elections 2005-20132013 Cross-Sectional Voter Survey2005-2013 & 2009-2013 Long-term Panel Datasets
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Slide10Results
12. Juli 2016
Slide11Long-term panel datasets
: Distribution of voter groups
Long-term Panel 2005-2013
Long-term Panel 2009-2013
New-Party-Voters 2005
15.2%
-
New-Party-Voters 2013
6.2%
8.1%
New-Party-Voter
2005 & 2013
0.5%
-
Switchers 2009-2013
42%
48.2%
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Slide12Ideological Distances
across Voter groups
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Slide13Dynamics of Alienation among New-Party-Voters
12. Juli 2016
Slide14Conclusion
Understanding motivation of new-party-voting is a crucial first step for understanding the emergence of new political parties on the macro levelNo evidence for issue-driven new-party votingNo evidence for conciliatory effects
Evidence for protest-driven votingAnti-Partyist
resentment makes requirement of empty policy-space superflousInsights supports viability of “project of newness”
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Slide15Thanks for your
attention!
12. Juli 2016