PPT-Modeling Hurricane Risk in a Changing Climate

Kerry Emanuel Lorenz Center Massachusetts Institute of Technology A Few Essential Points Most hurricane losses arise from water not wind Sea level is rising and will continue to do so Coastal storm intensity and freshwater flooding are expected to increase as the climate warms. AND. (RE)INSURANCE. Richard J. Murnane. RPI/. BIOS, . 16 . Jjune. 2011. Researcher Colloquium . on. Extreme . Weather Phenomena under Climate Change. (Hurricane Fabian over Bermuda. Sept. 5, . 2003). for flood risk. Dennis P. Lettenmaier. Department of Geography. University of California, Los Angeles. Climate Roundtable, “Precipitation in the U.S.”. FM Global, Boston. Jan 12, 2015. Motivating question: As the climate (and presumably precipitation and precipitation extremes) change, what will happen . Part Two . SUMMER . . . Average summer temperatures are expected to rise from 4 to 8 C . More extreme weather is predicted – summer heat, windstorms, drought and severe rainstorms . . . Butterflies: Southerners on the march northward . and Climate Change. AOSS 480 - 4/20/2015. Bukowski, Frey, Loeffler, Slevin. http://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/79000/79553/sandy_goe_2012302_1745_lrg.jpg. Presentation Outline. Analysis of Hurricane Sandy. and Climate Change. AOSS 480 - 4/20/2015. Bukowski, Frey, Loeffler, Slevin. http://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/79000/79553/sandy_goe_2012302_1745_lrg.jpg. Presentation Outline. Analysis of Hurricane Sandy. Patricia Carpenter. Masters of Environmental Education. Thesis Research. July 18, 2016. Overview. Personal Background. Methods. Research Questions. Results. Limitations. Summary. Significance. Personal Background: Education. B. lue . H. eat. Team Members:. Team leader:. Student1_Name. Student2_Name Student3_Name . Student4_Name Student5_Name. Hurricane . K. atrina. Katrina became one of the most devastating . natural disasters . Module 1: Introduction to Climate Change. Module 1: Introduction to Climate Change. SECTION III: . REPONSES TO CLIMATE CHANGE - . . MITIGATION . AND ADAPTATION. 3.2. Climate Change and Water Resources: Responses and Adaptation. Key Message #1. 2. Ch. 2 | Our Changing Climate. Global climate is changing rapidly compared to the pace of natural variations in climate that have occurred throughout Earth’s history. Global average temperature has increased by about 1.8°F from 1901 to 2017, and observational evidence does not support any credible natural explanations for this amount of warming; instead, the evidence consistently points to human activities, especially emissions of greenhouse or heat-trapping gases, as the dominant cause.. Tom Knutson. NOAA/GFDL. Climate Impacts and Extremes Group. GFDL/NOAA, Princeton, New Jersey. May 2017. Super Typhoon . Haiyan. , 2013. Collaborators :. . Bob . Tuleya. Joe . Sirutis. Morris Bender. and . Changing Climate . on . Future . US . Hurricane Wind . and . Storm Surge Damages. Kerry Emanuel. Lorenz Center. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Program. Assessing Hurricane Event Risk. Wind. Kerry Emanuel. Lorenz Center. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, MIT. Program. Overview of hurricanes. Basic theory of hurricanes. What have hurricanes been like in the past, and how will they be affected by global warming?. Kerry Emanuel. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Risk Assessment Methods. Methods based on hurricane history. Numerical Simulations. Downscaling Approaches. 3 Cat 3 Storms in New England. 3 Cat 5 Storms in U.S. History. Kerry Emanuel. Lorenz Center, MIT. Program. Brief Overview of New England Floods. Assessment of MIT’s Tropical . Cyclone. . Flood Risk. How will Global Warming Affect MIT Flood Risk?. New England Flooding.