Ethnic diversity, density and their consequences on politic - PowerPoint Presentation

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Ethnic diversity, density and their consequences on political participation:An agent-based simulation

Laurence Lessard-Phillips, Institute for Social Change, University of ManchesterNick Crossley, Department of Sociology, University of ManchesterBruce Edmonds, Centre for Policy Modelling, Manchester Metropolitan UniversityEd Fieldhouse, Institute for Social Change, University of ManchesterYaojun Li, Institute for Social Change, University of ManchesterRuth Meyer, Centre for Policy Modelling, Manchester Metropolitan UniversityNick Shryane, Institute for Social Change, University of ManchesterSlide2

Background

Ethnic minorities are (slowly) becoming a bigger part of the UK’s national population~5.6% (1991) – ~7.9% (2001) – ~ 14-18% (2051)Engagement of ethnic minorities in ‘conventional politics’, and its main determinants, is an interesting topic of enquiryEthnic minorities becoming increasingly important segment of the electorateEspecially given their location, density and diversity in the UKLink to socio-political integration/incorporation and other related issues (representation, etc.)UK case peculiar given voting right of Commonwealth citizens

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Theorising the role of ethnic diversity and density on turnout

Ethnic diversity (based on Fieldhouse and Cutts, 2008)Group conflict theory: diversity leading to higher levels of conflict and hence mobilisation of the population, leading to higher levels of turnoutCan also have depressing effect on turnoutEconomic resources theory: highly diverse communities have weaker mobilising effects and higher barriers to participation due to lack of resourcesRacial diversity thesis: high levels of diversity display more inequalities and hence lower participationSocial capital theory (?): link between diversity and levels of interpersonal/generalised trust

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Theorising the role of ethnic diversity and density on turnout

Ethnic density (based on Fieldhouse and Cutts, 2008)Social capital theory: group concentration leading to higher levels of bonding capital, connectedness and networks, which generate higher levels of political mobilisation and hence turnout Ethnic community model: higher levels of group consciousness/awareness leading to higher levels of turnoutMay also cause alienationRelative deprivation theory: higher levels of deprivation may lead to increased levels of alienation and, in turn, to decreased turnout

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Political participation of ethnic minorities in the UK: Existing evidence

Research-based evidence has found divergence in the turnout rates of various ethnic minority groups, with (some) stabilisation of turnout rates over timeAsian turnout > than turnout for non-AsiansDifferentiation within Asian groupsBlack Caribbean and African groups: lower levels amongst ethnic minority groupsYet more recent evidence seems to contradict these claimsSomehow difficult to disentangle ethnic group effects from other effects such as age, socio-economic status, etc.No clear agreement as to the impact of density on ethnic minority turnoutData/methods issues

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But…

We are still a long way from understanding this issue without integrating the varied accounts that exist into a unified model that captures the complexity of processes that might be at playLinking the micro to the macroOne way in which you can try to do this is via agent-based simulationUnderutilised method informed by data/evidence/theory in the social sciences that can link multiple and multi-faceted influential processes7Slide8

Agent-based simulation

What is it?Computational description of a given processNot usually analytically tractable More context-dependent…… but assumptions are much less drasticDetail of unfolding processes accessible

more criticisable (including by non-experts)Used to explore inherent possibilities

Validatable by data, opinion, narrative ...Often very complex

What happens?

Entities in simulation are decided up

Behavioural rules for each agent specified

e.g. sets of rules like: if this has happened then do this

Repeatedly evaluated in parallel to see what happens

Outcomes are inspected, graphed, pictured, measured and interpreted in different ways

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Dilemmas using this approach

KISS (Keep it Simple, Stupid)Models should be simple enough to understand and check (rigour) May omit critical aspects of the system of interest (lack of relevance)Strong inferences possible about within-model processesWeak mapping to the thing being modelled

KIDS (Keep it Descriptive, Stupid)

Models should capture the critical aspects of social interaction (relevance)

They may be too complex to understand and thoroughly check (lack of rigour)Weak inferences about within-model processesClear mapping to the thing being modelled

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Agent-based simulation model of voting behaviour: ‘the’ model

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Encapsulating narrative stories of voting in the simulation

Based on collected evidence, we set out stories according to which our agents actE.g.I voted for party X because it will put limits on immigration.I voted for minor party Y because I wanted to send a message to those lying, cheating, fiddlers in Westminster.I always vote – it’s part of who I am.I didn’t vote – what’s the point?Was there an election on?

These narratives also take into account the characteristics of the agents, their dynamics, and other influences

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Using the Simulation: the context

Run simulations that correspond to different settings or behavioural hypothesesSee how it affects outcomes, e.g.:Ethnic minority turnoutEthnic majority turnoutResults do not predict, but reveal possible emergent outcomesMore importantlyRaises new questions and gaps in knowledgeAn “in vitro” exploration of some of the complex relationships between factors that can occurSuggests new hypotheses (or refinements on old hypotheses) in an explicit and demonstrated form

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Results from preliminary “Proof of concept” version

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Early, “Proof of Concept” Version of the Model

Simulation model still being developed Validation stage yet to begin in earnestDemonstrated with 4 different scenariosOnly difference in minorities are (a) those inherent in the data we used to initialise the model and (b) the homophily effect of agents tending to make social links with similar age/ethnicity/politicsModel was run 25 timesAverage turnout in minority and majority is then measured

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Turnout by majority, minority (1%IR)Slide16

Turnout by majority, minority (5%IR)Slide17

Conclusion

ABS links micro- and macro-level processes in an explicit manner, enabling the exploration of the effects of how individuals behave and relate to each other at the aggregate levelStill in the process of developing the modelGathering evidenceMaking linkagesUpdating narrativesSpecial focus on extensive exploration of dynamic social networks (e.g., household-level influences)Future development of narrative  model “translations”

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Thank you!

http://www.scid-project.org18Slide19

What it looks like…

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What it looks like…

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What it looks like…

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What it looks like…

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