Pandemic Influenza Risk - PowerPoint Presentation

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Pandemic Influenza Risk

Presentation by:Dean T. JamisonUniversity of California, San FranciscoUniversity of California, San FranciscoMay 11, 2016

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This talk is based on

“The Inclusive Cost of Pandemic Influenza Risk”ByVictoria Fan, University of Hawai’iDean Jamison, UCSFLawrence Summers, Harvard Kennedy School

NBER Working Paper No. w22137March 2017

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All You Need to Know

r(s) = [ 1 + m( 1 – f )s ] - [ 1 + 1 / ( 1 – f ) ]

expectation of s = m-1 = 0.56

f

atness parameter = f = -2.0

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Overview

BackgroundEstimating the Distribution of SeverityCalculation of Global Costs

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Table 1. Worldwide mortality from selected influenza pandemics, 1700-2000

a

Year

Estimated worldwide pandemic-related deaths (millions)

Estimated world population (millions)

Severity, s

(fraction of world population killed, measured in SMUs)

b

1729

c

0.4

720

6

1781-82

c

0.7

920

81830-33c0.8115071898-1900c1.2163071918-20c,d20-501830110-2701957-58c1 286031968-69c,e1-2 35403-6

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Definitions

Severity, s, is measured in SMUs (standardized mortality units) i.e. units of 10-4.Exceedance probability, r(s), is the probability that a pandemic will have severity ≥ s.Return time, t(s) = r(s

)-1.VSL (a) = value of a statistical life year = 160 x per capita income in high-income countries for person of age a = 35 years.

VSMU(a) = VSL(a) x 10

-4

.

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Severity

expected value of s =

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s

< 4 – estimated from history for U.S.(equivalent to s < 10 worldwide)prob = 0.02assumed value of s = 2.5

Expected value of s = .02 x 2.5 = 0.05 5/11/16

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s

*(4) =

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For severity ≥ 4 : Hyperbolic

r(s) = [ 1 + m( 1 – f )s ] - [ 1 + 1 / ( 1 – f ) ] expectation of s = m-1

= 0.56fatness parameter = f = -2.0

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s

*(4) = 0.56 -

= 0.18

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Fig

1: Exceedance probability5/11/1612

exponential

For s*(4) = 0.18Slide13

Fig

2: Return time5/11/1613

fat-tailed hyperbolic

exponential

For s*(4) = 0.18Slide14

Table 2: Worldwide pandemic risk – two representative scenarios, 2015

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Moderately severe pandemic

(< 10 SMU)

b

Severe pandemic

(≥ 10 SMU)

a

Any pandemic

1. Annual probability,

r

b

2%

1.6%

3.6%

2. Return time, 1/r50 years63 years28 years3. Average severity (SMU)c2.558273. Expected severity, sd0.05 SMU0.93 SMU0.98 SMUSlide15

Table 3: Expected deaths from pandemic risk, by country income group, 2015

a

Income level

b

Low

Lower-middle

Upper-middle

High

World

1. Population (millions)

640

2900

2400

1400

7350

2. Moderately severe pandemics

    2.1 Relative pandemic severityc4321-2.2 Expected annual pandemic-related mortality rate, in SMU0.080.060.040.020.052.3 Expected excess deaths per year[ = (1) x (2.2) ] 510018,000

9600

2800

37,000

3. Severe pandemics (all severities combined)

3.1 Relative pandemic

severity

c

10

7

4

1

-

3.2 Expected annual pandemic-related mortality rate, in SMU

1.8

1.26

0.72

0.18

0.93

3.3 Expected excess deaths per year

[ = (1) x (3.2) ]

120,000

370,000

170,000

25,000

680,000

4. Expected totals

4.1 Expected mortality rate in

SMU

b

1.88

1.32

0.76

0.2

0.98

4.2 Expected excess deaths per year

[ = (2.3) + (3.3) ]

120,000

390,000

180,000

28,000

720,000

(430,000-1,000,000)

a

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Table 4: Mortality costs of pandemic risk, by country income group, 2015

(age-dependent VSMU)

Income

level

a

Low

Lower-middle

Upper-middle

High

World

1. Economic parameters

1.1 Income, Y (trillions of 2013 $)

0.762054801.2 Per person income, y (2013 $)7802300820041,00011,0001.3 vb0.7%1.0%1.3%1.6%-2. Pandemic costsc  

2.1 Expected annual mortality cost, C (billions of 2013 $)

d

-7

-100

-200

-180

-490

(-290 to -690)

2.2 Annual mortality cost, c

[as a % of income = (2.1) ÷ (1.1)]

-1.1%

-1.6%

-1%

-0.34%

-0.62%

(-0.37 to -0.87%)

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Thank you

Visit our website:www.dcp-3.orginfo@dcp-3.org

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