Thomas Piechota PhD PE Director of Sustainability and Multidisciplinary Research Associate Professor Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Kenneth Lamb PE Funded By NOAA Outline ID: 511259
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Water Supply Forecasting Research at UNLV
Thomas Piechota, PhD, P.E.Director of Sustainability and Multidisciplinary ResearchAssociate Professor, Department of Civil and Environmental EngineeringKenneth Lamb, P.E.Funded By: NOAASlide2
OutlineClimate Variability and the Colorado River Basin
Existing Research BasisCurrent Research GoalEstablishing Long Lead Climate/Streamflow teleconnections
Develop Weighted Forecasting Method2Slide3
Climate Variability
Linkages of Colorado River basin hydrology with: Interannual
climate variability (2-7 years)El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO)Northern Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)Pacific Ocean Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) Interdecadal climate variability (10-20 years)Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)Motivation: Improved long range(6-24 months in advance) streamflow forecasting
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Climate Indices - Streamflow
Timilsena, Piechota, Tootle, & Singh, 2009Slide5
Pacific Ocean SST - Streamflow
Tootle & Piechota, 2005Slide6
Pacific Ocean SST - Snowpack
Aziz, Tootle, Piechota, Gray, 2009
(+)
(-)
(-)
(-)
(+)Slide7
Research Project Goal
Improve the “Out-Year” inputs used by USBRIdentify long-lead climate-streamflow connections
Develop weighted forecast approach7ESPOUTLOOK
ESP
3-MONTH
APR-JUL COORDINATED
USBR INTERPOLATION
1976-2005 AVERAGESlide8
Research Project Goal
Improve the “Out-Year” inputs used by USBRIdentify long-lead climate-streamflow connections
Develop weighted forecast approach8Slide9
Analysis
Lagged Rank Sum Testing SOI, PDO, NAO, AMOIndividually and ENSO-Coupled
Lagged Singular Value Decompostion (SVD)Pacific Ocean SSTsGenerate weighted forecasts and compare with:30-Year AverageESP Outlook9Slide10
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Identify the Strongest Lag Slide11
Rank Sum Test Results
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Developing SST Teleconnection
Singular Value Decompostition (SVD) - Identifies covariance between two datasets
Pacific Ocean Sea Surface Temperature Data
(1951 – 2003)
CRB Naturalized/Unimpaired Streamflow Data
(1952 – 2004)Slide13
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3-Month SST Avg SVD ResultsSlide14
Why This Region?
Yang et al. 2002:Change in SST is evidence of a strong/weak wintertime jet stream
Why the 1-year lag? Anybody want a Masters degree?14Slide15
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Forecasting With SST Index
Forecast created using a weighted resampling of the observed data (1976-2005)Four Different Weighting Formulas3-Month Avg. SST intervals: DJF, JFM, FMAPredictands: April-July Volume, Yearly VolumeSlide16
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Assessing Forecast Skill
Linear Error in Probability Space (LEPS) scoreCompares forecast to the observed meanProbability of Observed values compared with probability of Forecasted values:
Q
f
Q
O
P
f
P
OSlide17
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Skill Results (DJF | Lag 1 year)
30-yr average skill scores at each location(PRELIMINARY)Slide18
Conclusions
Improvement to the 30-Year Avg using HondoRemaining Work:
Quantify Improvement to the ESP Outlook18