have we learned from high resolution global simulations Context French funding we would like to renew fo 20182021 The focus for 20142017 was ID: 644624
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Slide1
Drakkar, 2014-2017 : what have we learned from high resolution global simulations?
Context
:
French
funding
we
would
like
to
renew
fo
2018-2021
The focus for 2014-2017
was
ORCA12
Need
to
assess
where
we
are,
regarding
ORCA12
For
high
resolution
global simulations:
where
will
we
be
in 2021? Slide2
ORCA12 publicationsUpdate from the overview in Climate Exchanges 2014: 11
papers
in 2014, 12 in 2015, 8 in 2016 (31 total)
Use of ORCA12 for
boundary
conditions
(3
papers
)
Studies
of
mechanisms
of
ocean
variability
:
many
studies
are
regional
(S.O.,
Arctic
,
North
Atlantic, Somali
current
…). Focus on Atlantic MOC (Deshayes, Blaker, Gregorio, Rühs)
Few studies at the global scale: Salt transport (Treguier), seasonal EKE (Rieck), eddy anisotropy (Stewart), uncertainties/instrinsic variability (Serazin, 2015 &2016), data-model combinations for OO (Rio).
In 2016, the first 2 papers on the
coupled ORCA12
runs at the MetOffice: Hewitt, Roberts. Slide3
Question 1 : what are the main scientific questions that can be adressed
with
global models at « high » resolution?
What
are the main questions
we
have
solved
(or made
progress
toward
solving
)
using
ORCA12?
What
are the science questions
we
can
address
with
i
n
the
coming
years
with
global
high
resolution
models
(
need
to
define
what
is
«
high
resolution
»: questions vs
desired
resolution
)Slide4
Question 2: is ORCA12 special?Eddying global models
in the
same
resolution range:In the U.S.HycomGFDL 1/10°NCAR POP 1/10°
Emerging
: MPAS
In Europe: STORM (MPI Hambourg)Others:Japan, OFES?
ORCA12
is
used
both
for
operational
application and
climate
simulations (
coupling
to the
atmosphere
)Slide5
Question 3: how to realize the potential of bringing together operational and climate oceanographic
communities
?
What benefit have we
seen
?
What benefit can we realize in the coming years?
Slide6
The future of high resolution global models : oceanography in 2025
U.S. National
academy
of science
outlook (2008):Interdisciplinarity : ecology, physics-biology
coupling
,
etcSocietal applications: need to make models useable as black boxes « you
will
no longer
need
to
be
an
ocean
modeler to use
ocean
models
. »
Better
, more
robust
climate
coupled
models
Identified
challenges for
nonhydrostatic
models
,
coupling
with
waves
…
Need to make ocean models mature (JMcW): “
How
many
published
model
results
are
reproducible
by a
reader
,
hence
verifiable
? »Slide7
Important topics for global model development we see for Drakkar
The
added
value of coordination
at a European levelThe uncertainties
and
their
propagation (ensemble strategies, stochastic parameterizations)Grid refinement strategies for fine
scale
ocean
processes
,
downscaling
and
upscaling
surface air-
sea
-
ice-ocean
interactionsSlide8
Question 4: trends in the development of high resolution global models (5 to 10 years outlook
?)
Increased
resolution globally? Horizontal/vertical?
Zoom
strategy
vs unstructured, flexible grids? Will the different approaches to vertical coordinates remain
?
Simulations
forced
by a
fixed
atmospheric
state:
will
they
still
be
useful
?