Polishing the Plume

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A New Visualization of . Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts . Developed to Advance Climate Prediction Research and Communication. Jennifer M. Adams. Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies. George Mason University. ID: 368051 Download Presentation

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Polishing the Plume




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Slide1

Polishing the Plume

A New Visualization of Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts Developed to Advance Climate Prediction Research and Communication

Jennifer M. Adams

Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies

George Mason University

Slide2

Google Image Search Results for “ENSO Plume”

Slide3

The Whisk Brooms

Slide4

Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop, 2013

“Developing a More Reliable and Usable ENSO Prediction Plume”

by

Tony

Barnston

, Mike

Tippett

,

Huug

van den

Dool

, and David Unger

Slide5

An Early Failure

Slide6

A Better Failure

Slide7

The Wedding Cake

Slide8

The Current Favorite

Slide9

What Makes This Plume Shine?

Histograms!

Left-aligned for easy interpretation

Colorized for quick readability

Thin underline shows full range of values

Less ink, more information

Clear identification of individual models

Individual and multi-model ensemble means

The grey area between

obs

and forecasts

Slide10

Histograms on TV

Slide11

How To Draw Histograms With GrADS

Sorting data and drawing histograms have not been implemented (yet).

All the coding is done in the scripting language:

Define the index in a dimension environment with E and T varying

Parse results from ‘set

gxout

print’ output and populate a script variable

Loop over data values, fill histogram bins, collect statistics

Set up the X-Y space in the graphic with an invisible time series plot

Use ‘

q

gr2xy’ and ‘draw

recf

’ to draw the histogram bars

Scaling: Maximum mode value spans 90% of width between time steps,

so that no histogram overlaps the base of the subsequent histogram

Slide12

The Plume for July 2015(Click HERE to see Most Recent)

Slide13

Individual Model Plumes

Initialized July 2015

Slide14

Another Look at Individual Model Plumes(Click HERE to see in a browser)

Slide15

Plume Evolution

Click to See Animation

Slide16

Other Applications for the Plume

Extended

Indian Monsoon Rainfall (EIMR)

Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)

Point forecasts of daily maximum

temperature

Atmospheric

teleconnection

indices

Slide17

Extended Indian Monsoon Rainfall Index(Precipitation Averaged over 70°E–110°E, 10°N–30°N, in mm/day)

Slide18

Indian Ocean Dipole Index (Difference between area-averaged SST anomalies in the western and eastern Indian Ocean)

Slide19

Daily Min/Max Temperatures(Click HERE to See Latest)

Slide20

Daily Max Temperature Forecast Plume(Click HERE to See Latest)

00z run

12z run

Slide21

Next Target: The Cone of Uncertainty

Slide22

Cones on TV

Slide23

The HurriCone

Slide24

Adopt the New Plume!

The embedded

histograms

Declutter

the plume

Add useful information

Improve readability

Elegant distillation of ensemble information

Useful for many weather and climate indicators


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