Presentations text content in Polishing the Plume
Slide1
Polishing the Plume
A New Visualization of Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts Developed to Advance Climate Prediction Research and Communication
Jennifer M. Adams
Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies
George Mason University
Slide2Google Image Search Results for “ENSO Plume”
Slide3The Whisk Brooms
Slide4Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop, 2013
“Developing a More Reliable and Usable ENSO Prediction Plume”
by
Tony
Barnston
, Mike
Tippett
,
Huug
van den
Dool
, and David Unger
Slide5An Early Failure
Slide6A Better Failure
Slide7The Wedding Cake
Slide8The Current Favorite
Slide9What Makes This Plume Shine?
Histograms!
Left-aligned for easy interpretation
Colorized for quick readability
Thin underline shows full range of values
Less ink, more information
Clear identification of individual models
Individual and multi-model ensemble means
The grey area between
obs
and forecasts
Slide10Histograms on TV
Slide11How To Draw Histograms With GrADS
Sorting data and drawing histograms have not been implemented (yet).
All the coding is done in the scripting language:
Define the index in a dimension environment with E and T varying
Parse results from ‘set
gxout
print’ output and populate a script variable
Loop over data values, fill histogram bins, collect statistics
Set up the X-Y space in the graphic with an invisible time series plot
Use ‘
q
gr2xy’ and ‘draw
recf
’ to draw the histogram bars
Scaling: Maximum mode value spans 90% of width between time steps,
so that no histogram overlaps the base of the subsequent histogram
Slide12The Plume for July 2015(Click HERE to see Most Recent)
Slide13Individual Model Plumes
Initialized July 2015
Slide14Another Look at Individual Model Plumes(Click HERE to see in a browser)
Slide15Plume Evolution
Click to See Animation
Slide16Other Applications for the Plume
Extended
Indian Monsoon Rainfall (EIMR)
Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)
Point forecasts of daily maximum
temperature
Atmospheric
teleconnection
indices
Slide17Extended Indian Monsoon Rainfall Index(Precipitation Averaged over 70°E–110°E, 10°N–30°N, in mm/day)
Slide18Indian Ocean Dipole Index (Difference between area-averaged SST anomalies in the western and eastern Indian Ocean)
Slide19Daily Min/Max Temperatures(Click HERE to See Latest)
Slide20Daily Max Temperature Forecast Plume(Click HERE to See Latest)
00z run
12z run
Slide21Next Target: The Cone of Uncertainty
Slide22Cones on TV
Slide23The HurriCone
Slide24Adopt the New Plume!
The embedded
histograms
Declutter
the plume
Add useful information
Improve readability
Elegant distillation of ensemble information
Useful for many weather and climate indicators
Polishing the Plume
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