John G Geer Vice Provost of Academic and Strategic Affairs Gertrude Conaway Vanderbilt Professor of Political Science CoDirector of the Vanderbilt Poll 2016 Presidential Elections Structural Forces ID: 695496
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Slide1
Making SOME Sense of the 2016 Presidential Election
John G. Geer
Vice Provost of Academic and Strategic Affairs
Gertrude Conaway Vanderbilt Professor of Political Science
Co-Director of the Vanderbilt PollSlide2
2016 Presidential Elections:Structural Forces
*Economy
*2 Terms Obama
* Incumbent rating*Anger*Paid v. Free Media*demographicsSlide3
Economy, Incumbent, and Time for Change Model, 1948-2012Slide4
Middle Class AngerSlide5
Paid v. Free Media * one sided message by Clinton
* presidential ads drove narrative 1988-2012 * Trump drives it in 2016
* Trump recasts traditional information flow?Slide6
Since June 2016: Over 211,000 campaign
ads
23% FL
18% OH
14% NC
10% PA
5% VA
4% CO
4% National CableSlide7
Since June 2016: Over 211,000 campaign
ads
82% Democrat
18% Republican
.8% OtherSlide8
Trump and Free Media
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/16/upshot/measuring-donald-trumps-mammoth-advantage-in-free-media.htmlSlide9
Obama won Women by
10 Percentage Points
More importantly, there were 7.7 million more female voters than male voters.
They provided 53% of the US electorate in the last election cycle.
Younger Voters Age 18-29 by 23 Points
Hispanic Voters by 47 Points
African
Americans
by 87 points
Asian
Americans by 47
Points
48%
51%
332
206
Electoral Vote
Popular Vote
The role of changing demographicsSlide10
Source:
Roper Center Public Opinion Archives
• www.ropercenter.uconn.edu
White Vote is Getting SmallerSlide11
Source: Roper Center Public Opinion Archives • www.ropercenter.uconn.edu
Female Vote is IncreasingSlide12
Growing Hispanic Vote Slide13
Hispanic Vote in Presidential Elections
Democrat
RepublicanSlide14
The Democrat Edge
Voted Republican every election since 1992
Voted Democratic every election since 1992
Democrats won
18 states plus the District of Columbia
six times in a row,
which in 2016 would earn 242 electoral votes, about
90 percent of the 270 electoral
votes needed to win
.
In contrast,
Republicans
consistently
carried 13 states
over the last six elections,
which in 2016 would earn the party 102 electoral votes,
38 percent of the 270 needed
to win
.
The average state that voted Democratic in the past six elections delivers 13 electoral votes, while the average state that voted Republican in the past six elections delivers eight electoral votes.
States That Voted Consistently In The Past Six Presidential ElectionsSlide15
Obama in late July: 51% approve, 44% disapproveGDP growth 2.1%Third Term not a charm….But this model assumes equally qualified candidates and equal amount of resources….
And Who Wins?????