Making SOME Sense of the 2016 Presidential Election - PowerPoint Presentation

Making  SOME  Sense of the 2016 Presidential Election
Making  SOME  Sense of the 2016 Presidential Election

Making SOME Sense of the 2016 Presidential Election - Description


John G Geer Vice Provost of Academic and Strategic Affairs Gertrude Conaway Vanderbilt Professor of Political Science CoDirector of the Vanderbilt Poll 2016 Presidential Elections Structural Forces ID: 695496 Download Presentation

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Presentation on theme: "Making SOME Sense of the 2016 Presidential Election"— Presentation transcript


Slide1

Making SOME Sense of the 2016 Presidential Election

John G. Geer

Vice Provost of Academic and Strategic Affairs

Gertrude Conaway Vanderbilt Professor of Political Science

Co-Director of the Vanderbilt PollSlide2

2016 Presidential Elections:Structural Forces

*Economy

*2 Terms Obama

* Incumbent rating*Anger*Paid v. Free Media*demographicsSlide3

Economy, Incumbent, and Time for Change Model, 1948-2012Slide4

Middle Class AngerSlide5

Paid v. Free Media * one sided message by Clinton

* presidential ads drove narrative 1988-2012 * Trump drives it in 2016

* Trump recasts traditional information flow?Slide6

Since June 2016: Over 211,000 campaign

ads

23% FL

18% OH

14% NC

10% PA

5% VA

4% CO

4% National CableSlide7

Since June 2016: Over 211,000 campaign

ads

82% Democrat

18% Republican

.8% OtherSlide8

Trump and Free Media

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/16/upshot/measuring-donald-trumps-mammoth-advantage-in-free-media.htmlSlide9

Obama won Women by

10 Percentage Points

More importantly, there were 7.7 million more female voters than male voters.

They provided 53% of the US electorate in the last election cycle.

Younger Voters Age 18-29 by 23 Points

Hispanic Voters by 47 Points

African

Americans

by 87 points

Asian

Americans by 47

Points

48%

51%

332

206

Electoral Vote

Popular Vote

The role of changing demographicsSlide10

Source:

Roper Center Public Opinion Archives

• www.ropercenter.uconn.edu

White Vote is Getting SmallerSlide11

Source: Roper Center Public Opinion Archives • www.ropercenter.uconn.edu

Female Vote is IncreasingSlide12

Growing Hispanic Vote Slide13

Hispanic Vote in Presidential Elections

Democrat

RepublicanSlide14

The Democrat Edge

Voted Republican every election since 1992

Voted Democratic every election since 1992

Democrats won

18 states plus the District of Columbia

six times in a row,

which in 2016 would earn 242 electoral votes, about

90 percent of the 270 electoral

votes needed to win

.

In contrast,

Republicans

consistently

carried 13 states

over the last six elections,

which in 2016 would earn the party 102 electoral votes,

38 percent of the 270 needed

to win

.

The average state that voted Democratic in the past six elections delivers 13 electoral votes, while the average state that voted Republican in the past six elections delivers eight electoral votes.

States That Voted Consistently In The Past Six Presidential ElectionsSlide15

Obama in late July: 51% approve, 44% disapproveGDP growth 2.1%Third Term not a charm….But this model assumes equally qualified candidates and equal amount of resources….

And Who Wins?????

Shom More....