AOSS 480 NRE 480 Richard B Rood Cell 3015268572 2525 Space Research Building North Campus rbroodumichedu http aossenginumichedu peoplerbrood Winter 2017 April 6 2017 ID: 804995
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Slide1
Climate Change: An Inter-disciplinary Approach to Problem Solving(AOSS 480 // NRE 480)
Richard B. Rood
Cell: 301-526-8572
2525 Space Research Building (North Campus)
rbrood@umich.edu
http://
aoss.engin.umich.edu
/people/rbrood
Winter
2017
April 6,
2017
Slide2Class Information and News
Canvas site:
CLIMATE_480_001_W17
Record of course
Rood’s
Class MediaWiki Site
http://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.php/Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Action
Rood’s Class Tumblr Site:
http://openclimate.tumblr.com
Events and NewsElizabeth
Kolbert
, April 11, 2017, Ross
https
://erb.umich.edu/2017/01/24/elizabeth-kolbert-purpose-to-impact-speaker
/
Climate Blue
Applications for COP23: Bonn
There is a deadline ~ April 19.
Slide4Homework Questions?
Slide5Resources and Recommended Reading
International Energy Agency (IEA)
http://www.iea.org/
works to ensure reliable, affordable and clean energy for its 28 member countries and beyond.
Energy Information Administration (EIA)
http://www.eia.doe.gov/
keeps track of (inter)national energy use and future trends
.
Frequently Asked Questions
The
‘
wedge
’
paper:
“
A plan to keep carbon in check
”
by
Socolow
and
Pacala
, Scientific American, 2006. (
link
)
This is an influential policy-oriented paper on how to reform energy sector while still achieving economic
growth
Throughout the presentation
Slide6Resources and Recommended ReadingRood Blogs
We Like to Burn Things
All the Oil We Want
No Energy Policy and Even Less Climate Policy
Earthquakes and Climate Change
Slide7Outline: Class 16, Winter
2017
Analysis: Kaya Identity
Energy Supply
International Policy: Paris
Energy Consumption
Economic sectors
Agriculture
End use
Logic of Obama’s Plan
Wedges: It is possible
Slide8Energy by Source
Slide9Historical and Projected World Energy Use by Fuel
Source: Exxon Mobil Energy Outlook, 2013
daily
consumption (2010
)
US
China
OIL
20
million barrels
8
million barrels
NATURAL GAS
60 billion cubic feet 4 billion cubic feet COAL 3 million tons 10 million tons(US + China = 37% of World consumption in 2010) One cubic mile of oil per year
Thanks to Mark
Barteau
Slide10International Policy: ParisPlaced a short and sweet slide deck by
Avik
Basu
on Canvas Site
as resource
Slide11A trillion tons of carbon
We get to emit a trillion tons of carbon to avoid “dangerous” climate
change
Are we already experiencing “dangerous” climate change?
If we actually did this would it limit warming to ~ 2 degrees C?
Have we already committed to irreversible changes in ice and
permafrost
?
Slide122015: Paris AgreementLink to Paris Agreement
White House Fact Sheet on Paris Agreement
Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC)
Slide13Set of ReferencesCredibility of Paris Agreement
Outcomes of Paris (C2ES)
Emissions and Paris Goals
Emissions and Goals: Grantham (London School)
IEA: Emissions for COP 21
UNEP: Emissions Gap
Slide14Slide15A global perspective on energy and climate
To achieve stabilization at a 2°C warming, we would need to install ~900 ± 500 MW [mega-watts] of carbon emissions-free power generating capacity each day over the next 50 years. This is roughly the equivalent of a large carbon emissions-free power plant becoming functional somewhere in the world every day. In many scenarios, this pace accelerates after mid-century. . . even stabilization at a 4°C warming would require installation of 410 MW of carbon emissions-free energy capacity each day.
Caldeira et al. 2003
Slide16Emissions Trajectories
https
://www.climateinteractive.org/tools/scoreboard/scoreboard-science-and-data/
Slide17Mainstream approach – targets and timetables
From
R. Pielke Jr. The Climate Fix
Paris
Slide18Outline: Class 16, Winter
2017
Analysis: Kaya Identity
Energy Supply
International Policy: Paris
Energy Consumption
Economic sectors
Agriculture
End use
Logic of Obama’s Plan
Wedges: It is possible
Slide19Analysis: Kaya Identity
Slide20Kaya IdentityClimate, Energy, Population, Economy
Roger
Pielke
, Junior
The Climate Fix Book
The Climate Fix Lecture
The Climate Fix Lecture Slides
Fallacy of Magical Solutions
Slide21Less people
Smaller economy
Increase efficiency
Switch energy sources
Population management
Limit generation of wealth
Do same or more with less energy
Generate energy with less emissions
Carbon emissions = C = P * GDP * TE * C
------ ---- ----
P GDP TE
Factor
Lever
Population
GDP per
person
Energy intensity
Carbon intensity
Approach to Policy
GDP
Technology
P
GDP/P
TE/GDP
C/TE
What tools do we have to reduce emissions?
From
R. Pielke Jr. The Climate Fix
Slide22Pielke Jr. arguesThe need for technology to make solutions possible.
Inequity of wealth, access to basic resources, desire for economic growth makes energy use an imperative
Must go
From, we use too much energy, fossil fuels are cheap
To, we need more energy, fossil fuels are expensive
Slide23Managing Climate Complexity
TEMPORAL
NEAR-TERM
LONG-TERM
SPATIAL
LOCAL
GLOBAL
WEALTH
Being Global, Long Term, Wealth connected, degree of difficulty is high
Slide24Managing Energy Complexity
MOBILITY
Stationary
Moves Around
# of Sources
FEW
many
COST
Cost of Fuel
Cost of Waste
Social Cost of Carbon
Standing Infrastructure
New
Infrastructure
R&D, Job Training
, Education
Slide25Energy Landscape (seemingly) Changes
Hydrogen Fuel Cells
Renewables and Renewable Portfolios
U.S. Trade and Solar Panels
Wind Tax Credit
Biofuels
Ethanol, Switch grass, Sugar,
Algae
Fracking
Natural Gas Displacing Coal
Methane Leakage from Fracking
Slide26Emissions from economic sectors
Some of these numbers are out of date, but balance and message is consistent over time
Details at end of presentation
Slide27Emissions from economic sectors
Industrial: creating products from raw materials (mining, cement, agriculture)
Commercial: stores, municipalities, etc.
Transportation: cars, planes, ships
US energy use by sector
EIA Annual Energy Review, 2006
Slide28US Energy Consumption (2014)
Electricity Generation (39% of total)
42% Coal, 22% Natural Gas, 22% Nuclear, 8% Hydroelectric, 5% Other Renewables,
<
1% Petroleum
Transportation Fuels (27 % of total)
92% Petroleum,
3
% Natural Gas, 5% Renewables
Very little overlap between energy sources for these two dominant sectors!
Thanks to Mark
Barteau
Slide29Agriculture: A different sliceThis is a very complex way to look at the problem
(Some) Details at end of presentation
Slide30Agriculture: A different slice
UN Food and Agriculture Organization
Livestock’s Long Shadow
Agriculture’s Role in Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Livestock and Climate Change
Rood Blogs
Greenhouse Emissions of Agriculture
We Are What We Eat
How Much Does It Cost?
Slide31Agriculture
Use of direct fossil fuel energy relatively low: ~3–4.5 % in industrialized countries.
Half of used energy and direct CO
2
emissions are from fertilizer production (Haber-Bosch process)
BUT… big contributor to deforestation and land use change.
Livestock rearing is most significant contributor
Slide32Agriculture: Livestock
Responsible for ~18 % of CO
2
equivalent GHG emissions (so including N
2
O and CH
4
)
Same share as entire US!
9 % of world CO
2
emissions
Fossil fuels burned to produce fertilizer
Deforestation and land use changes for feed production and grazing (bulk!)
37 % of world CH
4
emissions
Fermentation in cattle stomachs (biggest anthropogenic source)
Animal manure65 % of N2OMostly from animal manure deposited on soils, with subsequent N
2O emission
Slide33Energy consumption by end use
The three main end uses of fossil fuel are:
Electric power plants (~40 % of CO
2
emissions)
Transportation (~23 % of CO
2
emissions)
Direct use of fuel (industrial processes and heating for buildings) (~37 % of CO
2
emissions)
So ~40 % CO
2
emissions from electricity, 60 % from fuels
Socolow and Pacala , 2006
World CO
2
emissions by fuel and end use
Slide34Obama Climate Action PlanClean Power Plan (Coal Power Plants)
CAFE Standards (Cars)
Energy Efficiency
Energy Star
Building Renovation
Slide35Mitigation Wedges“
Practical
” or “Possible”
Response Space
Slide36From Lecture on International Policy
“Avoid dangerous climate change”
Avoid 2
°
C
(1.5
°
C) global average warming
Keep carbon dioxide ( + other greenhouse gases) to less than 450 ppm equivalent
Or equivalent of One Trillion Tons of Carbon
Slide37Increase of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
Data and more information
Slide38Past Emissions
Princeton Carbon Mitigation Initiative
Slide39The Stabilization Triangle
Princeton Carbon Mitigation Initiative
Slide40The Wedge Concept
Princeton Carbon Mitigation Initiative
Slide41Slide42Stabilization (2006)
Princeton Carbon Mitigation Initiative
Slide43CO2 stabilization trajectory (2006)
Stabilize at < 550 ppm. Pre-industrial: 275 ppm, current: ~400 ppm.
Need 7
‘
wedges
’
of prevented CO
2
emissions.
Slide44Princeton Carbon Mitigation Initiative
(2011)
Slide45Where Do We Sit?Concept that we can take these actions to limit emissions.
Growing population.
Economic and development imperatives.
Need for more energy.
Technological development.
Societal inertia.
Slide46Slide47Energy Futures
Slide48Energy Decarbonization Tools:1. Efficiency Gains
The low-hanging
fruit
Essentially three kinds:
End-use electricity efficiency (fluorescent bulbs instead of incandescent
bulbs, buildings / insulation)
Energy generation efficiency (coal plant operating at 60 % efficiency instead of current 40 %)
Transportation efficiency (60 mpg instead of 30 mpg)
Efficiency gains are generally cheap mitigation options
But will only get so far before cutting into primary energy used for economic activity
Slide49McKinsey 2007: Large
Slide50Material for Next Lecture
Slide51IEA Plots of Energy Balance and UseIEA Statistics
IEA Energy Balances
IEA Graphics: Sankey Diagram
IEA Glossary: for Balances
Slide52Trend of fossil fuel use
IEA on Renewables
In
‘
business-as-usual
’
fossil fuels will continue to dominate world energy
Currently rapid increase of coal use, globally.
International Energy Outlook, EIA, 2007
Slide53Energy Landscape (seemingly) Changes
Hydrogen Fuel Cells
Renewables and Renewable Portfolios
U.S. Trade and Solar Panels
Wind Tax Credit
Biofuels
Ethanol, Switch grass, Sugar,
Algae
Fracking
Natural Gas Displacing Coal
Methane Leakage from Fracking
Slide54Emissions from economic sectors
Some of these numbers are out of date, but balance and message is consistent over time
Details at end of presentation
Slide55Emissions from economic sectors
Industrial: creating products from raw materials (mining, cement, agriculture)
Commercial: stores, municipalities, etc.
Transportation: cars, planes, ships
US energy use by sector
EIA Annual Energy Review, 2006
Slide56US Energy Consumption (2014)
Electricity Generation (39% of total)
42% Coal, 22% Natural Gas, 22% Nuclear, 8% Hydroelectric, 5% Other Renewables,
<
1% Petroleum
Transportation Fuels (27 % of total)
92% Petroleum,
3
% Natural Gas, 5% Renewables
Very little overlap between energy sources for these two dominant sectors!
Thanks to Mark
Barteau
Slide57Agriculture: A different sliceThis is a very complex way to look at the problem
(Some) Details at end of presentation
Slide58Agriculture: A different slice
UN Food and Agriculture Organization
Livestock’s Long Shadow
Agriculture’s Role in Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Livestock and Climate Change
Rood Blogs
Greenhouse Emissions of Agriculture
We Are What We Eat
How Much Does It Cost?
Slide59Agriculture
Use of direct fossil fuel energy relatively low: ~3–4.5 % in industrialized countries.
Half of used energy and direct CO
2
emissions are from fertilizer production (Haber-Bosch process)
BUT… big contributor to deforestation and land use change.
Livestock rearing is most significant contributor
Slide60Agriculture: Livestock
Responsible for ~18 % of CO
2
equivalent GHG emissions (so including N
2
O and CH
4
)
Same share as entire US!
9 % of world CO
2
emissions
Fossil fuels burned to produce fertilizer
Deforestation and land use changes for feed production and grazing (bulk!)
37 % of world CH
4
emissions
Fermentation in cattle stomachs (biggest anthropogenic source)
Animal manure65 % of N2OMostly from animal manure deposited on soils, with subsequent N
2O emission
Slide61End useDetails at end of presentation
Slide62Energy consumption by end use
The three main end uses of fossil fuel are:
Electric power plants (~40 % of CO
2
emissions)
Transportation (~23 % of CO
2
emissions)
Direct use of fuel (industrial processes and heating for buildings) (~37 % of CO
2
emissions)
So ~40 % CO
2
emissions from electricity, 60 % from fuels
Socolow and Pacala , 2006
World CO
2
emissions by fuel and end use
Slide63Analysis: Kaya Identity
Slide64Kaya IdentityClimate, Energy, Population, Economy
Roger
Pielke
, Junior
The Climate Fix Book
The Climate Fix Lecture
The Climate Fix Lecture Slides
Fallacy of Magical Solutions
Slide65Less people
Smaller economy
Increase efficiency
Switch energy sources
Population management
Limit generation of wealth
Do same or more with less energy
Generate energy with less emissions
Carbon emissions = C = P * GDP * TE * C
------ ---- ----
P GDP TE
Factor
Lever
Population
GDP per
person
Energy intensity
Carbon intensity
Approach to Policy
GDP
Technology
P
GDP/P
TE/GDP
C/TE
What tools do we have to reduce emissions?
From
R. Pielke Jr. The Climate Fix
Slide66So why has energy consumption increased so much?
GDP
/person
is considered the
“
societal success
”
Energy use increases have been driven by growth in population and GDP
/person.
Energy use =
(population)
*
(GDP
/person)
*(
energy/unit GDP
)
Slide67Pielke Jr. arguesThe need for technology to make solutions possible.
Inequity of wealth, access to basic resources, desire for economic growth makes energy use an imperative
Must go
From, we use too much energy, fossil fuels are cheap
To, we need more energy, fossil fuels are expensive
Slide68Mainstream approach – targets and timetables
From
R. Pielke Jr. The Climate Fix
Paris
Slide69Emissions Trajectories
https
://www.climateinteractive.org/tools/scoreboard/scoreboard-science-and-data/
Slide70Summary: Class 16, Winter 2017
Analysis: Kaya Identity
Energy
Supply
Energy Consumption
Economic sectors
Agriculture
End
use
Slide71Summary: Class 16, Winter 2017
Energy Supply
Energy Consumption
Economic sectors
Agriculture
End use
Analysis: Kaya Identity
Outline: Class 16, Winter
2017
Energy Supply
Energy Consumption
Economic sectors
Agriculture
End use
Analysis: Kaya Identity
Appendix: Supplementary SlidesDetails on coal, oil and natural gas
Details on sectors
Details on agriculture
Details on end use
Interesting and complex summary graphic from Department of Energy
Air quality and aerosols
Responses to manage emissions
Slide74CO2 source: Deforestation
Deforestation is thus an important part of climate change:
It accounts for ~20 % of current CO
2
emissions
It accounted for ~35 % of total CO
2
emissions since preindustrial times.
Fossil fuels
320
Deforestation
200
Total
520
Compare with 590 GtC in the preindustrial atmosphere
GtC
Slide75In what forms do we consume energy?
Fossil fuels:
Coal
Oil
Natural gas
Other:
Nuclear
Hydro
Renewables (mostly biomass)
‘
Hydrogen
’
Pacala and Socolow, Science, 2004
Slide76Energy sources: Coal
Emits most CO
2
per unit energy of all fossil fuels
Accounts for
~45%
of world CO
2
emissions (2013, IEA)
Used mostly for electricity and for home heating (especially in developing nations)
Coal burning emits significant amounts of sulfur, nitrogen and particulate matter
Proven reserves are
very high
Slide77Energy sources: Oil
Emits ~75 % of coal CO
2
emissions per unit energy.
Accounts for ~
35
% of world CO
2
emissions (2013, IEA)
Dominates transportation (cars), but also used for home/building heating
Proven reserves
of conventional oil are small number of decades
After
that, unconventional
oil (fracking, tar
sands etc.
) many decades
U.S. dependency on imported oil has been a major national security concern
Fracking has changed the whole notion of supply and “peak oil”
Slide78Energy sources: Natural gas
Least polluting of the fossil fuels: emits
‘
only
’
~60 % of coal CO
2
per unit energy
Accounted for
~20%
of world CO
2
emissions (2013, IEA)
Used for electricity generation and home heating (same as coal)
Proven reserves
with fracking are large
Methane Leakage and Fracking
Slide79Details on Sectors
Slide80Transportation sector
Sector with fastest growing CO
2
emissions in US
Dominated by oil and road transport
Accounts for ~23 % of worldwide and ~32 % of US CO
2
emissions
EIA Annual Energy Review, 2006
U.S. energy consumption by sector
Slide81Residential and Commercial: Buildings
Both residential and commercial (stores, municipalities, etc.)
Mostly electricity, except for fuel use for space heating
Accounts for ~39 % of US energy use.
EIA Annual Energy Review, 2006
U.S. energy consumption by sector
Slide82Industrial sector
Includes mining, refining, factories, etc.
The fraction of energy used by this sector generally decreases as countries become more developed.
Also includes agriculture…
EIA Annual Energy Review, 2006
U.S. industrial energy consumption by fuel
U.S. energy consumption by sector
Slide83Details on agriculture
Slide84Agriculture: Livestock
2006 report of Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the UN:
“
The livestock sector emerges as one of the top two or three most significant contributors to the most serious environmental problems, at every scale from local to global.
”
Important economic sector:
Employs
>
billion people (mostly poor)
Occupies 30
%
of Earth
’
s land surface through grazing (26 %) and feed production
33 % of arable land for feed production
Slide85Agriculture: Livestock
Increasing demand for livestock products (meat, dairy) is one of main drivers of
deforestation
70 % of deforested land in Amazon is occupied by pastures.
Feedcrops
cover most of remaining 30 %.
Livestock-induced deforestation emits ~0.65
GtC
per year (compared to ~7
GtC
from total fossil fuel use and ~2
GtC
total deforestation)
Livestock demand increasing rapidly with increasing world wealth (India, China). Should more than double by 2050.
Slide86Details of End Use
Slide87Energy consumption by end use: Electricity
Two thirds of world electricity production comes from fossil fuels
One third from hydro and nuclear power
Slide88Cost of Electricity
Coal is cheapest and most used source of electricity in US!
Solar Photovoltaic (PV) rather expensive
Electricity generation by source, U.S., 2006
Cost of electricity in US in 2002
Source: Nathan Lewis, 2009
What is changing in this balance ?
Slide89Energy consumption by end use: Direct fuel use
‘
Direct fuel use
’
:
Transportation (oil)
Heating in buildings
Industrial processes
Dominated by oil
No real alternatives for transportation fuels
Biofuels do not mitigate CO
2
emission
Future switch to renewable-powered hydrogen and/or electric cars?
Direct Fuel Use
Pacala and Socolow, 2006
Slide90Summary graphic from Department of Energy
Slide91Summary Points: U.S. Energy
Slide92Air quality and aerosols
Slide93Aerosols, Fossil Fuels and Radiative Balance
Burning of fossil fuels is important source of particulate matter (aerosols), which helps cool climate by:
Scattering radiation
Seeding clouds
Cleaning up
‘
dirty coal
’
might thus not be good for climate…
Responses to manage emissions
What are the responses that make sense?
Regulation
Life time responsibility for product – the coke can
Improve use of current resources – efficiency
Integrate development and climate change - adaptation
What might motivate those responses?
Potential costs
Make the cost right … do not deny
“
use
”
Cost of inefficiency
Social justice issues
What might hinder those responses?
Cost – benefit
Lack of flexibility
Social justice issues
Economy versus environment
Slide95Paris Agreement
Slide96Summary of Paris AgreementFrom E3G
“E3G are the independent experts on climate diplomacy and energy policy. Our senior leadership has a combined 75 years experience advising Government, business and NGOs and a wealth of insight into what climate change means for
societies.
E3G
works to accelerate the transition to a low carbon economy. We build the broad based coalitions necessary to deliver a safe climate, we bring independence to an extremely
polarised
discussion, and we hold policy makers to account on their promises.
E3G works closely with like-minded partners in government, politics, civil society, science, the media, public interest foundations and elsewhere.
Slide97E3G: Table 1
Slide98E3G: Table 2
Slide99E3G: Table 3
Slide100E3G: Table 4