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Climate Change: An Inter-disciplinary Approach to Problem Solving Climate Change: An Inter-disciplinary Approach to Problem Solving

Climate Change: An Inter-disciplinary Approach to Problem Solving - PowerPoint Presentation

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Climate Change: An Inter-disciplinary Approach to Problem Solving - PPT Presentation

AOSS 480 NRE 480 Richard B Rood Cell 3015268572 2525 Space Research Building North Campus rbroodumichedu http aossenginumichedu peoplerbrood Winter 2017 April 6 2017 ID: 804995

emissions energy agriculture climate energy emissions climate agriculture fossil carbon fuel fuels consumption coal gdp world economic electricity 2006

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Slide1

Climate Change: An Inter-disciplinary Approach to Problem Solving(AOSS 480 // NRE 480)

Richard B. Rood

Cell: 301-526-8572

2525 Space Research Building (North Campus)

rbrood@umich.edu

http://

aoss.engin.umich.edu

/people/rbrood

Winter

2017

April 6,

2017

Slide2

Class Information and News

Canvas site:

CLIMATE_480_001_W17

Record of course

Rood’s

Class MediaWiki Site

http://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.php/Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Action

Rood’s Class Tumblr Site:

http://openclimate.tumblr.com

Slide3

Events and NewsElizabeth

Kolbert

, April 11, 2017, Ross

https

://erb.umich.edu/2017/01/24/elizabeth-kolbert-purpose-to-impact-speaker

/

Climate Blue

Applications for COP23: Bonn

There is a deadline ~ April 19.

Slide4

Homework Questions?

Slide5

Resources and Recommended Reading

International Energy Agency (IEA)

http://www.iea.org/

works to ensure reliable, affordable and clean energy for its 28 member countries and beyond.

Energy Information Administration (EIA)

http://www.eia.doe.gov/

keeps track of (inter)national energy use and future trends

.

Frequently Asked Questions

The

wedge

paper:

A plan to keep carbon in check

by

Socolow

and

Pacala

, Scientific American, 2006. (

link

)

This is an influential policy-oriented paper on how to reform energy sector while still achieving economic

growth

Throughout the presentation

Slide6

Resources and Recommended ReadingRood Blogs

We Like to Burn Things

All the Oil We Want

No Energy Policy and Even Less Climate Policy

Earthquakes and Climate Change

Slide7

Outline: Class 16, Winter

2017

Analysis: Kaya Identity

Energy Supply

International Policy: Paris

Energy Consumption

Economic sectors

Agriculture

End use

Logic of Obama’s Plan

Wedges: It is possible

Slide8

Energy by Source

Slide9

Historical and Projected World Energy Use by Fuel

Source: Exxon Mobil Energy Outlook, 2013

daily

consumption (2010

)

US

China

OIL

20

million barrels

8

million barrels

NATURAL GAS

60 billion cubic feet 4 billion cubic feet COAL 3 million tons 10 million tons(US + China = 37% of World consumption in 2010) One cubic mile of oil per year

Thanks to Mark

Barteau

Slide10

International Policy: ParisPlaced a short and sweet slide deck by

Avik

Basu

on Canvas Site

as resource

Slide11

A trillion tons of carbon

We get to emit a trillion tons of carbon to avoid “dangerous” climate

change

Are we already experiencing “dangerous” climate change?

If we actually did this would it limit warming to ~ 2 degrees C?

Have we already committed to irreversible changes in ice and

permafrost

?

Slide12

2015: Paris AgreementLink to Paris Agreement

White House Fact Sheet on Paris Agreement

Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC)

Slide13

Set of ReferencesCredibility of Paris Agreement

Outcomes of Paris (C2ES)

Emissions and Paris Goals

Emissions and Goals: Grantham (London School)

IEA: Emissions for COP 21

UNEP: Emissions Gap

Slide14

Slide15

A global perspective on energy and climate

To achieve stabilization at a 2°C warming, we would need to install ~900 ± 500 MW [mega-watts] of carbon emissions-free power generating capacity each day over the next 50 years. This is roughly the equivalent of a large carbon emissions-free power plant becoming functional somewhere in the world every day. In many scenarios, this pace accelerates after mid-century. . . even stabilization at a 4°C warming would require installation of 410 MW of carbon emissions-free energy capacity each day.

Caldeira et al. 2003

Slide16

Emissions Trajectories

https

://www.climateinteractive.org/tools/scoreboard/scoreboard-science-and-data/

Slide17

Mainstream approach – targets and timetables

From

R. Pielke Jr. The Climate Fix

Paris

Slide18

Outline: Class 16, Winter

2017

Analysis: Kaya Identity

Energy Supply

International Policy: Paris

Energy Consumption

Economic sectors

Agriculture

End use

Logic of Obama’s Plan

Wedges: It is possible

Slide19

Analysis: Kaya Identity

Slide20

Kaya IdentityClimate, Energy, Population, Economy

Roger

Pielke

, Junior

The Climate Fix Book

The Climate Fix Lecture

The Climate Fix Lecture Slides

Fallacy of Magical Solutions

Slide21

Less people

Smaller economy

Increase efficiency

Switch energy sources

Population management

Limit generation of wealth

Do same or more with less energy

Generate energy with less emissions

Carbon emissions = C = P * GDP * TE * C

------ ---- ----

P GDP TE

Factor

Lever

Population

GDP per

person

Energy intensity

Carbon intensity

Approach to Policy

GDP

Technology

P

GDP/P

TE/GDP

C/TE

What tools do we have to reduce emissions?

From

R. Pielke Jr. The Climate Fix

Slide22

Pielke Jr. arguesThe need for technology to make solutions possible.

Inequity of wealth, access to basic resources, desire for economic growth makes energy use an imperative

Must go

From, we use too much energy, fossil fuels are cheap

To, we need more energy, fossil fuels are expensive

Slide23

Managing Climate Complexity

TEMPORAL

NEAR-TERM

LONG-TERM

SPATIAL

LOCAL

GLOBAL

WEALTH

Being Global, Long Term, Wealth connected, degree of difficulty is high

Slide24

Managing Energy Complexity

MOBILITY

Stationary

Moves Around

# of Sources

FEW

many

COST

Cost of Fuel

Cost of Waste

Social Cost of Carbon

Standing Infrastructure

New

Infrastructure

R&D, Job Training

, Education

Slide25

Energy Landscape (seemingly) Changes

Hydrogen Fuel Cells

Renewables and Renewable Portfolios

U.S. Trade and Solar Panels

Wind Tax Credit

Biofuels

Ethanol, Switch grass, Sugar,

Algae

Fracking

Natural Gas Displacing Coal

Methane Leakage from Fracking

Slide26

Emissions from economic sectors

Some of these numbers are out of date, but balance and message is consistent over time

Details at end of presentation

Slide27

Emissions from economic sectors

Industrial: creating products from raw materials (mining, cement, agriculture)

Commercial: stores, municipalities, etc.

Transportation: cars, planes, ships

US energy use by sector

EIA Annual Energy Review, 2006

Slide28

US Energy Consumption (2014)

Electricity Generation (39% of total)

42% Coal, 22% Natural Gas, 22% Nuclear, 8% Hydroelectric, 5% Other Renewables,

<

1% Petroleum

Transportation Fuels (27 % of total)

92% Petroleum,

3

% Natural Gas, 5% Renewables

Very little overlap between energy sources for these two dominant sectors!

Thanks to Mark

Barteau

Slide29

Agriculture: A different sliceThis is a very complex way to look at the problem

(Some) Details at end of presentation

Slide30

Agriculture: A different slice

UN Food and Agriculture Organization

Livestock’s Long Shadow

Agriculture’s Role in Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Livestock and Climate Change

Rood Blogs

Greenhouse Emissions of Agriculture

We Are What We Eat

How Much Does It Cost?

Slide31

Agriculture

Use of direct fossil fuel energy relatively low: ~3–4.5 % in industrialized countries.

Half of used energy and direct CO

2

emissions are from fertilizer production (Haber-Bosch process)

BUT… big contributor to deforestation and land use change.

Livestock rearing is most significant contributor

Slide32

Agriculture: Livestock

Responsible for ~18 % of CO

2

equivalent GHG emissions (so including N

2

O and CH

4

)

 Same share as entire US!

9 % of world CO

2

emissions

Fossil fuels burned to produce fertilizer

Deforestation and land use changes for feed production and grazing (bulk!)

37 % of world CH

4

emissions

Fermentation in cattle stomachs (biggest anthropogenic source)

Animal manure65 % of N2OMostly from animal manure deposited on soils, with subsequent N

2O emission

Slide33

Energy consumption by end use

The three main end uses of fossil fuel are:

Electric power plants (~40 % of CO

2

emissions)

Transportation (~23 % of CO

2

emissions)

Direct use of fuel (industrial processes and heating for buildings) (~37 % of CO

2

emissions)

So ~40 % CO

2

emissions from electricity, 60 % from fuels

Socolow and Pacala , 2006

World CO

2

emissions by fuel and end use

Slide34

Obama Climate Action PlanClean Power Plan (Coal Power Plants)

CAFE Standards (Cars)

Energy Efficiency

Energy Star

Building Renovation

Slide35

Mitigation Wedges“

Practical

” or “Possible”

Response Space

Slide36

From Lecture on International Policy

“Avoid dangerous climate change”

Avoid 2

°

C

(1.5

°

C) global average warming

Keep carbon dioxide ( + other greenhouse gases) to less than 450 ppm equivalent

Or equivalent of One Trillion Tons of Carbon

Slide37

Increase of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2)

Data and more information

Slide38

Past Emissions

Princeton Carbon Mitigation Initiative

Slide39

The Stabilization Triangle

Princeton Carbon Mitigation Initiative

Slide40

The Wedge Concept

Princeton Carbon Mitigation Initiative

Slide41

Slide42

Stabilization (2006)

Princeton Carbon Mitigation Initiative

Slide43

CO2 stabilization trajectory (2006)

Stabilize at < 550 ppm. Pre-industrial: 275 ppm, current: ~400 ppm.

Need 7

wedges

of prevented CO

2

emissions.

Slide44

Princeton Carbon Mitigation Initiative

(2011)

Slide45

Where Do We Sit?Concept that we can take these actions to limit emissions.

Growing population.

Economic and development imperatives.

Need for more energy.

Technological development.

Societal inertia.

Slide46

Slide47

Energy Futures

Slide48

Energy Decarbonization Tools:1. Efficiency Gains

The low-hanging

fruit

Essentially three kinds:

End-use electricity efficiency (fluorescent bulbs instead of incandescent

bulbs, buildings / insulation)

Energy generation efficiency (coal plant operating at 60 % efficiency instead of current 40 %)

Transportation efficiency (60 mpg instead of 30 mpg)

Efficiency gains are generally cheap mitigation options

But will only get so far before cutting into primary energy used for economic activity

Slide49

McKinsey 2007: Large

Slide50

Material for Next Lecture

Slide51

IEA Plots of Energy Balance and UseIEA Statistics

IEA Energy Balances

IEA Graphics: Sankey Diagram

IEA Glossary: for Balances

Slide52

Trend of fossil fuel use

IEA on Renewables

In

business-as-usual

fossil fuels will continue to dominate world energy

Currently rapid increase of coal use, globally.

International Energy Outlook, EIA, 2007

Slide53

Energy Landscape (seemingly) Changes

Hydrogen Fuel Cells

Renewables and Renewable Portfolios

U.S. Trade and Solar Panels

Wind Tax Credit

Biofuels

Ethanol, Switch grass, Sugar,

Algae

Fracking

Natural Gas Displacing Coal

Methane Leakage from Fracking

Slide54

Emissions from economic sectors

Some of these numbers are out of date, but balance and message is consistent over time

Details at end of presentation

Slide55

Emissions from economic sectors

Industrial: creating products from raw materials (mining, cement, agriculture)

Commercial: stores, municipalities, etc.

Transportation: cars, planes, ships

US energy use by sector

EIA Annual Energy Review, 2006

Slide56

US Energy Consumption (2014)

Electricity Generation (39% of total)

42% Coal, 22% Natural Gas, 22% Nuclear, 8% Hydroelectric, 5% Other Renewables,

<

1% Petroleum

Transportation Fuels (27 % of total)

92% Petroleum,

3

% Natural Gas, 5% Renewables

Very little overlap between energy sources for these two dominant sectors!

Thanks to Mark

Barteau

Slide57

Agriculture: A different sliceThis is a very complex way to look at the problem

(Some) Details at end of presentation

Slide58

Agriculture: A different slice

UN Food and Agriculture Organization

Livestock’s Long Shadow

Agriculture’s Role in Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Livestock and Climate Change

Rood Blogs

Greenhouse Emissions of Agriculture

We Are What We Eat

How Much Does It Cost?

Slide59

Agriculture

Use of direct fossil fuel energy relatively low: ~3–4.5 % in industrialized countries.

Half of used energy and direct CO

2

emissions are from fertilizer production (Haber-Bosch process)

BUT… big contributor to deforestation and land use change.

Livestock rearing is most significant contributor

Slide60

Agriculture: Livestock

Responsible for ~18 % of CO

2

equivalent GHG emissions (so including N

2

O and CH

4

)

 Same share as entire US!

9 % of world CO

2

emissions

Fossil fuels burned to produce fertilizer

Deforestation and land use changes for feed production and grazing (bulk!)

37 % of world CH

4

emissions

Fermentation in cattle stomachs (biggest anthropogenic source)

Animal manure65 % of N2OMostly from animal manure deposited on soils, with subsequent N

2O emission

Slide61

End useDetails at end of presentation

Slide62

Energy consumption by end use

The three main end uses of fossil fuel are:

Electric power plants (~40 % of CO

2

emissions)

Transportation (~23 % of CO

2

emissions)

Direct use of fuel (industrial processes and heating for buildings) (~37 % of CO

2

emissions)

So ~40 % CO

2

emissions from electricity, 60 % from fuels

Socolow and Pacala , 2006

World CO

2

emissions by fuel and end use

Slide63

Analysis: Kaya Identity

Slide64

Kaya IdentityClimate, Energy, Population, Economy

Roger

Pielke

, Junior

The Climate Fix Book

The Climate Fix Lecture

The Climate Fix Lecture Slides

Fallacy of Magical Solutions

Slide65

Less people

Smaller economy

Increase efficiency

Switch energy sources

Population management

Limit generation of wealth

Do same or more with less energy

Generate energy with less emissions

Carbon emissions = C = P * GDP * TE * C

------ ---- ----

P GDP TE

Factor

Lever

Population

GDP per

person

Energy intensity

Carbon intensity

Approach to Policy

GDP

Technology

P

GDP/P

TE/GDP

C/TE

What tools do we have to reduce emissions?

From

R. Pielke Jr. The Climate Fix

Slide66

So why has energy consumption increased so much?

GDP

/person

is considered the

societal success

Energy use increases have been driven by growth in population and GDP

/person.

Energy use =

(population)

*

(GDP

/person)

*(

energy/unit GDP

)

Slide67

Pielke Jr. arguesThe need for technology to make solutions possible.

Inequity of wealth, access to basic resources, desire for economic growth makes energy use an imperative

Must go

From, we use too much energy, fossil fuels are cheap

To, we need more energy, fossil fuels are expensive

Slide68

Mainstream approach – targets and timetables

From

R. Pielke Jr. The Climate Fix

Paris

Slide69

Emissions Trajectories

https

://www.climateinteractive.org/tools/scoreboard/scoreboard-science-and-data/

Slide70

Summary: Class 16, Winter 2017

Analysis: Kaya Identity

Energy

Supply

Energy Consumption

Economic sectors

Agriculture

End

use

Slide71

Summary: Class 16, Winter 2017

Energy Supply

Energy Consumption

Economic sectors

Agriculture

End use

Analysis: Kaya Identity

Slide72

Outline: Class 16, Winter

2017

Energy Supply

Energy Consumption

Economic sectors

Agriculture

End use

Analysis: Kaya Identity

Slide73

Appendix: Supplementary SlidesDetails on coal, oil and natural gas

Details on sectors

Details on agriculture

Details on end use

Interesting and complex summary graphic from Department of Energy

Air quality and aerosols

Responses to manage emissions

Slide74

CO2 source: Deforestation

Deforestation is thus an important part of climate change:

It accounts for ~20 % of current CO

2

emissions

It accounted for ~35 % of total CO

2

emissions since preindustrial times.

Fossil fuels

320

Deforestation

200

Total

520

Compare with 590 GtC in the preindustrial atmosphere

GtC

Slide75

In what forms do we consume energy?

Fossil fuels:

Coal

Oil

Natural gas

Other:

Nuclear

Hydro

Renewables (mostly biomass)

Hydrogen

Pacala and Socolow, Science, 2004

Slide76

Energy sources: Coal

Emits most CO

2

per unit energy of all fossil fuels

Accounts for

~45%

of world CO

2

emissions (2013, IEA)

Used mostly for electricity and for home heating (especially in developing nations)

Coal burning emits significant amounts of sulfur, nitrogen and particulate matter

Proven reserves are

very high

Slide77

Energy sources: Oil

Emits ~75 % of coal CO

2

emissions per unit energy.

Accounts for ~

35

% of world CO

2

emissions (2013, IEA)

Dominates transportation (cars), but also used for home/building heating

Proven reserves

of conventional oil are small number of decades

After

that, unconventional

oil (fracking, tar

sands etc.

) many decades

U.S. dependency on imported oil has been a major national security concern

Fracking has changed the whole notion of supply and “peak oil”

Slide78

Energy sources: Natural gas

Least polluting of the fossil fuels: emits

only

~60 % of coal CO

2

per unit energy

Accounted for

~20%

of world CO

2

emissions (2013, IEA)

Used for electricity generation and home heating (same as coal)

Proven reserves

with fracking are large

Methane Leakage and Fracking

Slide79

Details on Sectors

Slide80

Transportation sector

Sector with fastest growing CO

2

emissions in US

Dominated by oil and road transport

Accounts for ~23 % of worldwide and ~32 % of US CO

2

emissions

EIA Annual Energy Review, 2006

U.S. energy consumption by sector

Slide81

Residential and Commercial: Buildings

Both residential and commercial (stores, municipalities, etc.)

Mostly electricity, except for fuel use for space heating

Accounts for ~39 % of US energy use.

EIA Annual Energy Review, 2006

U.S. energy consumption by sector

Slide82

Industrial sector

Includes mining, refining, factories, etc.

The fraction of energy used by this sector generally decreases as countries become more developed.

Also includes agriculture…

EIA Annual Energy Review, 2006

U.S. industrial energy consumption by fuel

U.S. energy consumption by sector

Slide83

Details on agriculture

Slide84

Agriculture: Livestock

2006 report of Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the UN:

The livestock sector emerges as one of the top two or three most significant contributors to the most serious environmental problems, at every scale from local to global.

Important economic sector:

Employs

>

billion people (mostly poor)

Occupies 30

%

of Earth

s land surface through grazing (26 %) and feed production

33 % of arable land for feed production

Slide85

Agriculture: Livestock

Increasing demand for livestock products (meat, dairy) is one of main drivers of

deforestation

70 % of deforested land in Amazon is occupied by pastures.

Feedcrops

cover most of remaining 30 %.

Livestock-induced deforestation emits ~0.65

GtC

per year (compared to ~7

GtC

from total fossil fuel use and ~2

GtC

total deforestation)

Livestock demand increasing rapidly with increasing world wealth (India, China). Should more than double by 2050.

Slide86

Details of End Use

Slide87

Energy consumption by end use: Electricity

Two thirds of world electricity production comes from fossil fuels

One third from hydro and nuclear power

Slide88

Cost of Electricity

Coal is cheapest and most used source of electricity in US!

Solar Photovoltaic (PV) rather expensive

Electricity generation by source, U.S., 2006

Cost of electricity in US in 2002

Source: Nathan Lewis, 2009

What is changing in this balance ?

Slide89

Energy consumption by end use: Direct fuel use

Direct fuel use

:

Transportation (oil)

Heating in buildings

Industrial processes

Dominated by oil

No real alternatives for transportation fuels

Biofuels do not mitigate CO

2

emission

Future switch to renewable-powered hydrogen and/or electric cars?

Direct Fuel Use

Pacala and Socolow, 2006

Slide90

Summary graphic from Department of Energy

Slide91

Summary Points: U.S. Energy

Slide92

Air quality and aerosols

Slide93

Aerosols, Fossil Fuels and Radiative Balance

Burning of fossil fuels is important source of particulate matter (aerosols), which helps cool climate by:

Scattering radiation

Seeding clouds

Cleaning up

dirty coal

might thus not be good for climate…

Slide94

Responses to manage emissions

What are the responses that make sense?

Regulation

Life time responsibility for product – the coke can

Improve use of current resources – efficiency

Integrate development and climate change - adaptation

What might motivate those responses?

Potential costs

Make the cost right … do not deny

use

Cost of inefficiency

Social justice issues

What might hinder those responses?

Cost – benefit

Lack of flexibility

Social justice issues

Economy versus environment

Slide95

Paris Agreement

Slide96

Summary of Paris AgreementFrom E3G

“E3G are the independent experts on climate diplomacy and energy policy. Our senior leadership has a combined 75 years experience advising Government, business and NGOs and a wealth of insight into what climate change means for

societies.

E3G

works to accelerate the transition to a low carbon economy. We build the broad based coalitions necessary to deliver a safe climate, we bring independence to an extremely

polarised

discussion, and we hold policy makers to account on their promises. 

E3G works closely with like-minded partners in government, politics, civil society, science, the media, public interest foundations and elsewhere.

Slide97

E3G: Table 1

Slide98

E3G: Table 2

Slide99

E3G: Table 3

Slide100

E3G: Table 4