PPT-1 DECISION THEORY I BIASES

and RATIONALITY Some general comments 2 3 Decision Theory Formidable foundations Probability and reasoning about the future Rational decision making Deeply rooted in the Enlightenment Major leaps in the mid20. of medical . decision-. making. . 1. :. . The . CREDO stack. John Fox . Department of Engineering Science . University of . Oxford . and OpenClinical. Thanks to …. Psychologists, Informatics/CS/AI. Chapter . 11. Negotiator Cognition. Copyright 2013 John Wiley & Sons. Common Mistakes of Negotiators. The fixed pie myth. Framing of negotiator judgment. Escalation of conflict. Overestimating your value. MBA-542. Instructor: Erlan Bakiev, Ph.D.. 1-. 1. Chapter 5 . Perception and Individual Decision Making. 5-. 2. Essentials of . Organizational Behavior. , . 11/e. Stephen P. Robbins & Timothy A. Judge. --) (2F) BIASES AND CORRECTIVE PROCEDURES DECISION RESEARCH.A BRANCH OF PERCEPTRONICS Damoel Kahnernan q 1 Amos T vr sky DDC IIf ;! KC 19 1917 ADVANCED DECISION TECHNOLOGY ~ I CYBERNETICS TECHNOLOGY . decisions. in . conditions. . of. . information. . uncertainty. Tomas . Macak. MANAGEMENT THEORY. Faculty of Economics and Management. Department of Management. Organization of teaching. Consultation time: Monday from 10.00 to 11.30 in the morning. Office No. E 468 (4th floor of the building of the Faculty of Business and Economics). Phone: 224 382 029, email: macak@pef.czu.cz. CH1: Selective Perception. What is selective perception. People selectively perceived what they expect and hope to see.. Cognitive factors: . prior belief . expectations. Motivational factors: . Abby . Yinger. Mathematics. Statistics. Decision Theory. Decision theory. The Decision . theory . is the theory . about decisions. The subject is not a very unified one. T. here . are many different ways to theorize about decisions, . Janet G. Lenz, Ph.D.. Gary W. Peterson, Ph.D.. Robert C. Reardon, Ph.D.. James . P. Sampson, Jr., Ph.D.. Denise E. Saunders, Ph.D.. Evolution of CIP. Innovation in . brief. and . self-help services . How to see past our biases and get at the truth?. Data-driven, quantitative risk modeling and . decision-making. Ten barriers to making good unaided decisions. Plunging in. Frame blindness. Lack of frame control. . Decision. . Theory. Wolfgang Spohn. Multi-. disciplinary. . approaches. . to. . reasoning. . with. . imperfect. . information. . and. . knowledge. . – . a . synthesis. . and. a . roadmap. Purpose: . Discuss techniques for managing biases in order to improve decision making. REF: . Outsmart your Own Biases, HBR 2015. Idea in Brief. The Problem. . Cognitive biases muddy our decision making. We rely too heavily on intuitive, automatic judgements, and even when we try to use reason, our logic is often lazy or flawed.. It has 4 phases.. 1.Action or acts.. 2.State of nature or events or outcome.. 3.Pay off and pay off table or pay off matrix.. Decision. A decision problem may be represented by tree diagram. Decision making problems deals with the selection of single act from a set of acts.. Dr. . Pravin. Kumar . Agrawal. Assistant Professor. Department of Business Management. PhD (Finance). Arbitrage. The act of exploiting the price differences in a financial asset in different markets to make profits by simultaneously purchasing at a low price in one market and selling the same asset at a higher price in a different market. . . Three years of losses often turn investors with thirty-year horizons into investors with three-year horizons; they want out.. Kenneth Fisher and Meir . Statman. . 2. Self-Control. People struggle between two personas—a doer and a planner.