PPT-Modelling Behaviour in Simulation Models

Stewart Robinson Dean School of Business and Economics Professor of Management Science Four examples A Lorry Loading Bay Problem Knowledge Based Improvement KBI Ford Engine Plant. Pipeline . Qra. Seminar. Pipeline risk assessment . Software for consequence modelling. 2. What is consequence modelling?. Effects from accident (e.g. release or explosion). Strict physical effect (e.g. overpressure from explosion, flow from release and concentration at distance). -Preserving Model Transformation. Arend. . Rensink. , University of . Twente. IPA Spring Days, 18 April 2012. Models in Science. 2. 18 April 2012. Behaviour Preserving Model Transformation. Physical world. Dr Andy . Evans. I. ndividual level.. A. gents interact with environment and each other.. M. odel behaviour and decision making.. Agent-Based Models. Typical social science model:. Agents are burglars.. Your exam. Lesson objectives. To be able to define and understand:. Definition . of a simulation model.. Advantages and disadvantages of using simulation models. .. Benefits of Spreadsheet software. Uses of simulation modelling for weather forecasting, car crash analysis and financial forecasting.. Day 2. :. Session 7. Social Science, Different Purposes and Changing Networks. Discussion: the . Social Science view of ABM. 2-Day Introduction to Agent-Based Modelling, Manchester, Feb/Mar 2013, slide . Predictions in ecology rely on models. . What is a model?. Matrix algebra. Linear regression models. More on regression. Variance analysis. Model selection techniques. Classification techniques. Eigenvector techniques. Simon Van Mierlo. simon.vanmierlo@uantwerpen.be. Hans Vangheluwe. hans.vangheluwe@uantwerpen.be. Complex Systems. Complexity: . timed. , . autonomous. , . reactive. (to. events. ) . behaviour. .. In contrast to . Observational learning. Theorist . Albert Bandura. Social learning theory – learning which occurs within a social context.. Provides information about our environment, thoughts, feelings and . behaviours. Tonight's agenda . Our focus is always somewhere else. A Secure Development Lifecycle?. Threat Modelling. Taking it in your STRIDE. How . to get everyone involved. How to win at Poker. Q & A. Fin. Centre for Fire and Explosion Studies. School of Mechanical and Automotive Engineering, Kingston University London. Centre for Fire and Explosion Studies. A. . Heidari. and J.X. . Wen. Detonation. . Joanne Evans and . Mirna. . Willer. Agenda. Introductions. Mirna’s. . story. Entity-Relationship Modeling Method: “Bibliographic Universe”. Joanne’s story. Recordkeeping Metadata Models. Metadata Modeling Exercise.  . With Bayesian conditional density estimation. Problem. Analytic expressions for likelihood of parameters is not available with simulation based models. Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC). Provides likelihood free inference. Simulation Models 16 Introduction Simulation can be used to analyze a wide variety of problems. The applications can be grouped into four general areas: Operations models Financial models Marketing models Barotse. floodplain, Zambia. . Tom Willis. 1. , Mark Smith. 1. , Donall Cross. 2. , Andrew Hardy. 3. , Georgina Ettritch. 3. , Happiness Malawo. 4. , . Mweemba. Sinkombo. 4. , Cosmas Chalo. 4. , Elizabeth Mroz.