P Vijaya Kumar Pvkumaricargovin Risks associated with agriculture Extreme Weather Events are on the rise DROUGHT FLOOD HEAT WAVE HEAVY RAINS CYCLONE 0 gt gt Frequency Days It is very likely that the length frequency andor intensity of warm spells or heat waves and frequency ID: 1026791
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1. Agromet Advisory Services and Agricultural Contingency PlansP. Vijaya KumarPv.kumar@icar.gov.in
2. Risks associated with agriculture
3. Extreme Weather Events are on the riseDROUGHTFLOODHEAT WAVEHEAVY RAINSCYCLONE0>>Frequency (Days)It is very likely that the length, frequency and/or intensity of warm spells or heat waves and frequency of heavy precipitation will increase in many areas by the end of 21st century (IPCC SREX, 2012).
4. Extreme Events in the recent past IndiaAICRPAM - CRIDA
5. Agricultural droughtIt occurs when available soil moisture is inadequate for healthy crop growth and cause extreme stress and wilting. Agricultural Drought Categories Early season droughtMid season droughtLate season droughtPermanent droughtApparent drought
6. Types of Forecast issued by IMDShort range forecast – valid for 24-48 hours Application of irrigation water, fertilizers, harvesting etc.,Medium range forecast – valid for 3-10 days Sowing, transplanting, irrigation, fertilizers, plant protection measures, harvesting and threshing etc., Extended range forecast - more than 10 days, month, season etc., Long range forecast - more than month, season etc., Crop planning, Selection of cultivar etc., Nowcasting and Extended Range ForecastIntegration of medium and long range forecasts Starting of sowing rains Intermittent dry spells Excessive rainfall weeks Outbreak of pests and diseases
7. Forecasts and Contingency plans and AAS
8. Decision tree for suggesting contingency measures for drought
9. CRIDA/AICRPDA Research outputsAgri. UniversitiesUpdating of contingency plans with Universities/KVKsNMSAImplementation of DCPsDistrict (with state government authorities)Taluq/Mandal (AICRPDA/AICRPAM network)Villages (through KVKs under NICRA-TDC600 District Contingency PlansLegendSTATUSCOMPLETEDPENDINGURBAN AREASDistrict based Contingency PlansNational- CRIDATelangana-CRIDAGujarat-AnandMaharashtra-PuneMP- BhopalRajasthan-JaipurKarnataka- BengaluruUP-Lucknow623 plans completedOther states: AP, Haryana, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand
10. http://www.crida.in:82/contingencyplanning/
11. Agromet Advisory Services in India
12. IMD started weather services for farmers in the 1945.Broadcasted by All India Radio in the form of Farmer’s Weather Bulletin.1976 – AAS from State Meteorological Centres in collaboration with Agri. Department of respective States1988 – National centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting started with major objective to give medium range weather forecast – Agroclimatic zone wise2007 – IMD launched integrated Agromet Services at district levelBrief History of Agromet Advisories
13. Timely Agromet-advisories can have multiple benefits to farmersSaving on inputsReduce lossesAgro-advisories can help farmers to cope with climate variability and face weather related contingencies With the advancement in communication technology Agromet-advisories are reaching in the hands of farmerA well commissioned and continuous study of impact and feed back from the users can give good insights on the research needs.Importance of Agromet Advisories
14. AGROMET ADVISORIESAgromet advisories are farmers bulletins prepared with following informationprevailing weather, soil and crop condition weather prediction. Measures / practices / suggestions based on weather forecastAgro-advisory bulletin consist of three parts:Weather events occurred during past week and weather forecast for five days ahead. (RF, WS, WD, RH, max & min T)It contains actual information on state and stage of crop growth, ongoing agricultural operations, disease and insect pest occurrence.3. It provides value added information on various farm activities to be taken based on weather
15. Tools in preparation of Agromet Advisory BulletinsCrop growth is often described by an empirical model, consisting of a regression equation. Crop weather relationships (experimental results)Various agro-meteorologically based models are generally crop weather relationship models which may be defined as a simplified representation of complex relationship between weather or climate and crop performance Crop growth simulation models Empirical / statistical /Dynamical models
16. Pest and disease forewarning modelsThe development and growth of many pests and disease causing organisms are influenced largely by the micro and macro climate in which the organisms thrive.Disease / PestForewarning modelsCrop – Mustard; Centre - AnandStem rotY = -59.497 – 0.833 Tmin (FL & POD) + 16.491 EP (FL & POD) + 2.410 VP2 (Fl & POD)RustY = -13.373 + 5.939 Tmean (POD & PM) – 1.471 Tmax (POD & PM) Saw flyY = 0.239 – 3.4 RH2 (VEG) + 0.365 EP (VEG)VEG – Vegetative stage; FL – Flowering stage; POD – Pod formation stage; PM – Physiological maturity stageCrop – Cotton; Centre - ParbhaniBollwormY = 2.81 + 0.052RF1 + 0.092RF – 0.494Tmin + 0.512BSS1 + 0.135 RHmeanRF and RF1– Rainfall during the week of incidence and one week before; Tmin – Minimum temperature during the week of incidence; BSS1 – Bright sunshine hours during the week of incidence; RHmean – Mean relative humidity during the week of incidence These types of location specific pest / disease forewarning models would be very much useful in issuing the agromet advisories on pest / disease outbreak and advising spray schedules.
17. IMD130 AG.MET. FIELD UNITSDISTRICT LEVEL AGENCIES(DAO/KVK/ATMA/NGOs)PREPARATION OF DISTRICTWISE MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECAST BY STATE MET CENTRE PREPARATION OF DISTRICT SPECIFIC AGRO-ADVISORIESFOR CONCERNED AGRO-CLIMATIC DISSEMINATION OF DISTRICT LEVELAGRO-ADVISORIESFARMERS(THROUGH MEDIA AGENCIES,IT SERVICE, PERSONAL CONTACT)District-wise Agro-met dataAgro-climate level agro-met dataFeedback analysisDistrict Level Agro-Met Advisory Service System
18. AICRP on AgrometeorologyAICRPAM 1983 -10 Centers 1987 – 2 Centers 1995 -13 Centers 2015-10 Centers
19. AICRPAMDaily situation and colour coded chart for deficit/ excess rainfall with outlook ICARMoACWOLResearch BackstoppingIMD
20. Microlevel Agromet Advisories - development and disseminationAICRPAM-NICRA
21. Agromet Advisories issued in different languages
22. Agroclimatic AtlasSoftware Tools
23. Innovative and Contextual Agromet Advisory Services for Climate Smart AgricultureFunded by Monsoon Mission IIMulti Institution, Multi Disciplinary, 3 Districts , 3 crops Project for Improving the Agromet advisories on a pilot basis New Project
24. CHALLENGESWeather Forecast : Skill, Quantitative, Locale Specificity, SeamlessAgriculture & allied sectors: Assessment of conditions of Crop Horticulture Livestock Soil Pest & DiseasesWeather Sensitivity of Crops & Management PracticesDecision Support Tools for Translating Weather Forecast into AdvisoriesLocation specific Advisory Dissemination, Outreach & FeedbackSynergistic Collaboration among Participating agencies
25. Way forwardAAS packaged according the requirements of crop growers associations dealing with different field and horticultural crops on a real time basisDue focus is required for understanding weather sensitivity of animal shelter, health, feed and productivity and incorporating the same into advisory system A mechanism to issue advisories on potential fishing zones, fish breeding zones etc. also needs to be developedAwareness on “Weather based crop Insurance” may be created among the farmers
26. Thank You AllBe Weather wiseOther wise