PPT-NEA Uncertainty Analysis in Modeling UAM program

program Kostadin Ivanov Kaiyue Zeng Jason Hou Maria Avramova Multiphysics Model Validation Workshop NCSU Raleigh June 27 29 2017 2 OECDNEA LWR Uncertainty Analysis in Modeling UAM Benchmark. Jake Blanchard. Spring 2010. Uncertainty Analysis for Engineers. 1. Introduction. We’ve discussed single-variable probability distributions. This lets us represent uncertain inputs. But what of variables that depend on these inputs? How do we represent their uncertainty?. Jake Blanchard. Spring 2010. Uncertainty Analysis for Engineers. 1. Introduction. Statistical inference=process of drawing conclusions from random data. Conclusions of this process are “propositions,” for example. Readings. Readings. Baye. 6. th. edition or 7. th. edition, Chapter 3. BA 445 Lesson A.4 Uncertainty. Overview. Overview. Overview. BA 445 Lesson A.4 Uncertainty. Expected Value . distinguishes good decisions from good luck. Gambling with positive expected value virtually guarantees . Jake Blanchard. Spring 2008. Uncertainty Analysis for Engineers. 1. Summarizing and Interpreting Data. It is useful to have some metrics for summarizing statistical data (both input and output). 3 key characteristics are . Jake Blanchard. Fall 2010. Uncertainty Analysis for Engineers. 1. Instructor. Jake Blanchard. Engineering Physics. 143 Engineering Research Building. blanchard@engr.wisc.edu. Uncertainty Analysis for Engineers. COST Functional Modeling . Workshop. 22-24 April, Helsinki. Types of data sets and modeling. Commercial array data. – more likely to have . tools that support the use of array IDs.. Custom/USDA array data . US Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. Building a Common Vocabulary. model. model. L. . modus. : mode, measure. model. conceptual. diagrammatic. mathematical. computational. Hall, C. A. S., and J. W. Day. 1977. Systems and models: terms and basic principles. . Africa Regional Workshop on the Building of Sustainable National. Greenhouse Gas Inventory Management Systems, and the use of the 2006. IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. Swakopmund. Zhijiong. Dennis . Huang. a. , . Junyu. Allen . Zheng. a. , . Yongtao. Hu. b. a. Institute. for Environmental and Climate Research, Jinan University. b. School. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology. Overview Introduction Net AEP of wind farm clusters (WP3.1) Uncertainty analysis (WP3.2) Work plan Objective: Provide an accurate value of the expected net energy yield from the cluster of wind farms as well as the uncertainty ranges INTRODUCTION TO NUMERICAL MODELING IN GEOTECHNICAL ENGINEERING WITH EMPHASIS ON FLAC MODELING www.zamiran.net By Siavash Zamiran, Ph.D., P.E. Geotechnical Engineer, Marino Engineering Associates, Inc. : . Case Study of. . Residential Wood Combustion . Rabab . Mashayekhi, . Shunliu. . Zhao, . Sahar . Saeednooran. , . Amir . Hakami. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Carleton University, . This project proposes to study sensitivity analysis for guiding the evaluation of uncertainty of data in the visual analytics process. We aim to achieve:. Semi-automatic Extraction of Sensitivity Information. . ignorance. in . technological. design. Introduction. . to. . Innovation. Sebastiaan van Delft. Why. is . this. important?. Faced. . with. risk-analysis . with. . every. (new) . technology.