PPT-Making Uncertainty Valuable

Making Uncertainty Valuable not Risky About KCA Management Consultancy focused on Energy Technology and Related Markets Work with clients to develop and implement gamechanging strategies improve operational efficiencies and reduce costs through longterm competitive advantage. Nick Bloom (Stanford & NBER). IMF Lectures, January 18. th. 2013. Talk summarizes a JEL draft with Fernandez-Villaverde and Schneider. Currently very scrappy and only the slides are on-line but hoping to post the paper on-line soon. IB DP Physics. Error Bars. U. sed . on graphs to display the uncertainty in measurements of the data . points.. T. here . may be uncertainty in just the y-values, just the x-values, or . both. .. Must be included in all DP Physics data analysis including your Internal Assessment. Readings. Readings. Baye. 6. th. edition or 7. th. edition, Chapter 3. BA 445 Lesson A.4 Uncertainty. Overview. Overview. Overview. BA 445 Lesson A.4 Uncertainty. Expected Value . distinguishes good decisions from good luck. Gambling with positive expected value virtually guarantees . Manipulating symbols. Last class. Typology of signs. Sign systems. Symbols. Tremendously important distinctions for informatics and computational sciences. Computation = symbol manipulation. Symbols can be manipulated without reference to content (syntactically. for S2D forecasting. EUPORIAS wp31. Nov 2012, Ronald Hutjes. Background. S2D impact prediction. Uncertainty explosion / Skill implosion ??. SST. Weather. (Downscaling). Soil moisture. Plant productivity. under . uncertainty I.. . On the one hand rational choice under uncertainty is . impossible, on . the other hand it is either impossible not to choose in the . face of . uncertainty, as the very non-choice then also becomes a way . Inclined Manometer. http://. www.dwyer-inst.com. U-tube Manometer. Sensitivity. Inclined Manometer. http://. www.dwyer-inst.com. U-tube Manometer. Pitot. Static Probe. Measures fluid velocity . v. Based on Bernoulli’s law. Saleem Bahaj & . Angus Foulis. 21st November 2016. The views expressed in this presentation are those of the presenter and not necessarily those of the . Bank of England or members of the MPC, FPC or PRA Board.. “The . scientist has a lot of experience with ignorance and doubt and uncertainty, and this experience is of very great importance, I think. . When . a scientist does not know the answer to a problem, he is ignorant. When he has a hunch as to what the result is, he is uncertain. And when he is pretty damn sure of what the result is going to be, he is still in some doubt. environmental research. Liew Xuan Qi (A0157765N). Cheong Hui Ping (A0127945W). Hong Chuan Yin (A0155305M). Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing, Communicating, and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Climate Decision Making. OUTLINE. Accelerator Pre-alignment background. Uncertainty and GUM supplement 1. PACMAN pre-alignment budgeting . CMM uncertainty modeling. Thermal uncertainty compensation and modeling. First stochastic modeling results. Accuracy vs. Precision. What is the difference?. Accuracy vs. Precision. Precision . accuracy. Exactness. Divisions on scale. Reproducibility. Uncertainty. Significant digits. Correctness. Calibration. Brian Clough. 1. , Matt Russell. 1. , Grant Domke. 2. , Chris Woodall. 2. . 2016 Western Mensurationist’s Meeting. 1. University of Minnesota. 2. US Forest Service Northern Research Station. 3 tiered approach for identifying and . Erzo F. P. Luttmer. Andrew A. Samwick. Dartmouth College and NBER. March 2017. Motivating Question. Future government policy is subject to uncertainty. How costly is this uncertainty?. When does policy uncertainty matter most?.