PPT-Chapter 15: Decisions Under Risk and Uncertainty

McGrawHillIrwin Copyright 2011 by the McGrawHill Companies Inc All rights reserved In business we are forced to make decisions involving riskthat is where the consequences of any action we take is uncertain due to unforeseeable events Where do we begin. Readings. Readings. Baye. 6. th. edition or 7. th. edition, Chapter 3. BA 445 Lesson A.4 Uncertainty. Overview. Overview. Overview. BA 445 Lesson A.4 Uncertainty. Expected Value . distinguishes good decisions from good luck. Gambling with positive expected value virtually guarantees . Panel Discussion. Lynn H. Pottenger, PhD, DABT. The Dow Chemical Company. Uncertainty Workshop Focus:. Focus on identification of sources & communication of uncertainty in a risk assessment. Not how to measure. Making Uncertainty Valuable not Risky. About KCA. Management Consultancy focused on Energy, Technology, and Related Markets.. Work with clients to develop and implement game-changing strategies, improve operational efficiencies, and reduce costs through long-term competitive advantage.. Insurance. “The policy of being too cautious is the greatest risk of all” . Attributed to Jawaharlal Nehru (former Prime Minister of India). “Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing.” . Marcia McNutt. Editor-in-Chief. Science . family of Journals. Challenges with scientific uncertainty ...... Public perception that if scientists express uncertainty, they “don’t know they are talking about.”. environmental research. Liew Xuan Qi (A0157765N). Cheong Hui Ping (A0127945W). Hong Chuan Yin (A0155305M). Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing, Communicating, and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Climate Decision Making. The Challenge and Solutions. Ya-Wei (Jake) Li. Endangered Species Policy Advisor. Defenders of Wildlife. yli@defenders.org. How can we address uncertainty in pesticide consultations in a . timely. manner that provides species with the . A Systematic Review of the Literature. Cindy Jardine. University of Alberta. S. Michelle Driedger. University of Manitoba. Study Objectives. To evaluate empirical studies of communicating uncertainty . Insurance. “The policy of being too cautious is the greatest risk of all” . Attributed to Jawaharlal Nehru (former Prime Minister of India). “Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing.” . Using risk to guide decision-making under uncertainty. NWHA Annual Conference. February 2014. Darin E. Johnson. BIS Consulting. Problem summary. Upgrade of a hydro-generation facility. Two-unit plant with space for a third.. Mahler. Norwegian Research Center for Computers and Law. Institute. for Private Law. The . faculty. . of. Law. University. . of. Oslo. Agenda. Introduction. Risk management. Legal risk management. . Emotion and Feeling in Decision-Making. Psychologists believe that emotion and feelings influence decisions. Consider two models:. affect . and. heuristic. . Affect. refers to subtle feelings . Richard J. Nugent III, Ph.D. . Economist, HEC-FDA Lead. Hydrologic Engineering Center . Davis, CA. agenda. What is flood risk, and how do we describe it?. How do we assess flood risk?. What goes into the uncertainty about flood risk?. . ignorance. in . technological. design. Introduction. . to. . Innovation. Sebastiaan van Delft. Why. is . this. important?. Faced. . with. risk-analysis . with. . every. (new) . technology.