PPT-Chapter 15: Decisions Under Risk and Uncertainty

McGrawHillIrwin Copyright 2011 by the McGrawHill Companies Inc All rights reserved In business we are forced to make decisions involving riskthat is where the consequences of any action we take is uncertain due to unforeseeable events Where do we begin. sources:. sensory/processing noise. ignorance. change. consequences:. inference. learning. coding:. distributional/probabilistic population codes. neuromodulators. Multisensory Integration. +.  . apply the previous analysis:. Panel Discussion. Lynn H. Pottenger, PhD, DABT. The Dow Chemical Company. Uncertainty Workshop Focus:. Focus on identification of sources & communication of uncertainty in a risk assessment. Not how to measure. Making Uncertainty Valuable not Risky. About KCA. Management Consultancy focused on Energy, Technology, and Related Markets.. Work with clients to develop and implement game-changing strategies, improve operational efficiencies, and reduce costs through long-term competitive advantage.. in Measurement. (IB text - Ch 11; AP text - section 1.4 pgs. 10-13 and A10-A13). All measurements have some degree of . uncertainty. . Therefore, we need to give some indication of the reliability of measurements and the uncertainties in the results calculated from these measurements. . Marcia McNutt. Editor-in-Chief. Science . family of Journals. Challenges with scientific uncertainty ...... Public perception that if scientists express uncertainty, they “don’t know they are talking about.”. The Challenge and Solutions. Ya-Wei (Jake) Li. Endangered Species Policy Advisor. Defenders of Wildlife. yli@defenders.org. How can we address uncertainty in pesticide consultations in a . timely. manner that provides species with the . Damian . Staszek. Supervisors: Professor Dragan . Savic. & Professor . Guangtao. Fu. University of Exeter. ds463@exeter.ac.uk. . Every five years Water Only Companies (WOC) and Water and Sewage Companies (WaSC) publish their Water Resources Management Plans (WRMP) and Business Plans.. A Systematic Review of the Literature. Cindy Jardine. University of Alberta. S. Michelle Driedger. University of Manitoba. Study Objectives. To evaluate empirical studies of communicating uncertainty . Erzo F. P. Luttmer. Andrew A. Samwick. Dartmouth College and NBER. March 2017. Motivating Question. Future government policy is subject to uncertainty. How costly is this uncertainty?. When does policy uncertainty matter most?. analytical perspective. . Roy Macarthur. roy.macarthur@fera.gsi.gov.uk. Analytical perspective. Uncertainty about quantitative measurements. Chemical, microbiological, biotechnological . analytes. .. Zhijiong. Dennis . Huang. a. , . Junyu. Allen . Zheng. a. , . Yongtao. Hu. b. a. Institute. for Environmental and Climate Research, Jinan University. b. School. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology. Two Good Choices. Sometimes, you get to choose between 2 (or more!) awesome, pleasant things.. Hanging out with this friend or that one. Accepting this new job offer or that one. Getting this cute puppy or this cute kitten. Uncertainty. Irreducible uncertainty . is inherent to a system. Epistemic uncertainty . is caused by the subjective lack of knowledge by the algorithm designer. In optimization problems, uncertainty can be represented by a vector of random variables . RETURNS?. A . COPULA BASED APPROACH.. Dr. . Ur Koumba. Dpt. Of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics. University of Free State . Provincial Research . Colloquium. Dpt. of Treasury, . Free State . Province.