PPT-Decision Analysis

Alternatives and States of Nature Good Decisions vs Good Outcomes Payoff Matrix Decision Trees Utility Functions Decisions under Uncertainty Decisions under Risk Decision Analysis Payoff Tables. T state 8712X action or input 8712U uncertainty or disturbance 8712W dynamics functions XUW8594X w w are independent RVs variation state dependent input space 8712U 8838U is set of allowed actions in state at time brPage 5br Policy action is function SYSTEMS. Decision Support Software. Reasons for the growth of decision-making information systems. People need to. People must make . People must . techniques, such as modeling and forecasting, to make good decisions. R. Keeney November . 28, 2012. Game Theory. A decision maker wants to behave optimally but is faced with an opponent. Nature – offers uncertain outcomes. Competition – another optimizing decision maker. A . decision tree. is a graphical representation of every possible sequence of decision and random outcomes (states of nature) that can occur within a given decision making problem.. A decision tree is composed of a collection of nodes (represented by circles and squares) interconnected by branches (represented by lines).. Alternatives and States of Nature. Good Decisions vs. Good Outcomes. Payoff Matrix. Decision Trees. Utility Functions. Decisions under Uncertainty. Decisions under Risk. Decision Analysis - Payoff Tables. Prof. Dr. . Y. İlker TOPCU. www.ilkertopcu.. net. . www.. ilkertopcu. .org. . www.. ilkertopcu. .. info. facebook.com/. yitopcu. . twitter.com/. yitopcu. instagram.com/. yitopcu. web.itu.edu.tr/. Introduction to Decision Analysis. Models help managers gain insight and understanding, but they can’t make decisions.. Decision making often remains a difficult task due to:. Uncertainty regarding the future. Quantitative . Analysis and Decision Making. Quantitative Analysis. Model Development. Software Packages . Operations Research. The body of knowledge involving quantitative approaches to decision making is referred to as . Introduction to Decision Analysis. Models help managers gain insight and understanding, but they can’t make decisions.. Decision making often remains a difficult task due to:. Uncertainty regarding the future. Facilitated by:. CMA Enterprise Incorporated. Davie, Florida. Any other reproduction, resale or redistribution is strictly prohibited without the written consent of a CMA Enterprise Incorporated or Breakthru Institute representative. . Decision Analysis 2 Decision Analysis Effective decision-making requires that we understand: The nature of the decision that must be made The values, goals, and objectives that are relevant to the decision problem the Leaky Competing Accumulator Model. Psychology 209. March 4, 2013. Is the rectangle longer toward the northwest or longer toward the northeast?. Longer toward the Northeast!. 2.00”. 1.99”. A Classical Model of Decision Making:. Baba Maiyaki Musa . MBBS MPH FWACP. At the end of this module the student will be able to : . describe a nonclinical work-related decision.. Describe who makes the decision, what actions are possible, what the resulting. Good Decisions vs. Good Outcomes. Payoff Matrix. Decision Trees. Utility Functions. Decisions under Uncertainty. Decisions under Risk. Decision Analysis - Payoff Tables. Case Problem - (A) p. 38. Decision Analysis - Payoff Tables.