University of North Carolina UNCIE ENVIRON International Corporation ENVIRON April 29 2015 Western States Air Quality Study Intermountain West Data Warehouse Summary Winter O 3 Modeling ID: 406078
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Sensitivity Modeling UpdateUniversity of North Carolina (UNC-IE)ENVIRON International Corporation (ENVIRON)April 29, 2015
Western States Air Quality Study
Intermountain West Data WarehouseSlide2
SummaryWinter O3 ModelingBoundary Conditions StudyMOVES2014 SensitivitySlide3
Winter O3 ModelingObjectivesTo develop and test an operational WRF-SMOKE-CAMx
winter O3
modelProduce a winter O3 modeling configuration to use in simulation Base11b and 2014 modelingDesignWRF and
CAMx configuration; no emissions adjustmentsWRF configuration with SNODAS snow fields and landcover albedo adjustmentsCAMx prototype that adjusts albedo based on snow cover and snow ageJanuary – March 2011 simulationSlide4
Winter O3 ModelingUGWOS Hourly O3
February Results
Winter configuration leads to systematically lower O3
WRF and CAMx configuration alone doesn’t reproduce winter O3 peaksPerformance actually declines for winter O
3 in UGWOSSlide5
Winter O3 ModelingAQS Hourly O3February Results
Myton, UT corroborates the WY O&G basin results
Welby, CO is a non O&G site; shows that the winter configuration helps some of the over prediction biasesSlide6
Winter O3 ModelingPreliminary ResultsMeteorology and CAMx configurations alone won’t reproduce the winter O3 peaks
Need to explore the incremental addition of emissions changes; TOG increases and
NOx decreasesSlide7
Boundary Condition Sensitivity TestsObjectivesInvestigate regional model performance issues related to boundary conditions (BCs) downscaled from global chemistry models (GCMs)Identify systematic problems in the available GCM BCs
Produce recommendations for how to use GCM BCs for regional modeling in the West
Find a best-performing BC dataset for simulation 2011bDesignDownscale MOZART, GEOS-Chem, and AM3 to CONUS36-km BCs with CB6r2 chemistry
Winter/summer simulations with CAMx to evaluate the influence of the different BCs on model performanceSlide8
Initial BC Sensitivity TestsCAMx V6.12011 36/12/4 km two-way grid nestingGCM to define lateral BCs around 36 km CONUS domain
2011a MOZART BCs (MZBC)2011b GEOS-Chem BCs (GCBC)Dust performance issues, especially for MZBC, documented in wiki:
http://vibe.cira.colostate.edu/wiki/wiki/1043/bc-sensitivity-modeling-results
PM2.5 Monthly Bias (%) MPESlide9
Additional BC Sensitivity TestsCAMx V6.2 (can use TOPCON BC)Initial BC Sens runs use zero-gradient TOPCON BC as used in CAMx V6.1 and CMAQJan/Jul 2011 36/12 km initial BC testsMOZART BCs (MZBC)
Fine crustal (FCRS) greatly overestimated in JulGEOS-Chem BCs (GCBC)Some periods with very high FCRS and CCRS in Jul
AM3 BCs (AMBC)Some high CCRS in JulSlide10
Jan Jul
Jan JulSlide11
Additional BC Sensitivity TestsStill setting up AMET for 2011 will use to evaluate MZBC, GCBC and AMBCNeed AMBC MPE results for next steps; select best performing BCs for additional analysisMay need to cap BC dust concentrations at 10 µg/m3
(FCRS and CCRS)Perform Jan/Jul 2011 36/12 km BC sensitivity tests
If MPE seems reasonable, run with TOPCON for Jan/Jul 2011 36/12 kmPerform annual 2011 36/12 km BC sensitivity testAnnual MPE to make sure no new issues related to BCAdopt BCs for 2011b platform by end of May/early JunSlide12
MOVES2014 SensitivityObjectiveQuantify the emissions and simulated air quality changes resulting from estimating on-road mobile emissions with MOVES2014 (relative to MOVES2010b)Perform due diligence on a significant update to the model of a major source of emissions
DesignMOVES2014 Sensitivity off of CAMx
Base11a (MZ BCs)Use EPA NEI2011v2 modeling platform MOVES2014 CB6 emission rate look up tables and inputsPrepare these data for 15-day spin-up+January
/July 2011 CAMx MPE for January JulyCAMx simulations will finish in early May, results available mid-MaySlide13
MOVES2014 SensitivitySensitivity Wiki
NOx Emissions ResultsSlightly higher
NOx in the summer than winter monthsUtah county total MOVES NOx
emissionsSlide14
MOVES2014 Sensitivity
NOx Emissions Results
Monthly total NOx emissions differences (MOVES2014-MOVES2010b)NOx emissions ratios (MOVES2014/MOVES2010b)
General decrease in onroad NOx in MOVES2014 relative MOVES2010bDifferences also reflect change in spatial surrogates (extended idle and starts/stops)Slide15
MOVES2014 SensitivityTOG Emissions Results>25% higher TOG in the summer than winter monthsWyoming county total TOG emissionsSlide16
MOVES2014 SensitivityTOG Emissions ResultsMonthly total TOG emissions differences (MOVES2014-MOVES2010b)TOG emissions ratios (MOVES2014/MOVES2010b)Increases in
onroad TOG in MOVES2014 relative MOVES2010b