PPT-What would it take to Change your Inference? Quantifying the Discourse about Causal Inferences

Sciences QUICK EXAMPLES konfoundit Kenneth A Frank Ran Xu Zixi Chen IChien Chen Guan Saw 2018 AERA online video cost is 105 Motivation Statistical inferences are often challenged because of uncontrolled bias There may be bias due to uncontrolled confounding . 1093panmpr013 Causal Inference without Balance Checking Coarsened Exact Matching Stefano M Iacus Department of Economics Business and Statistics University of Milan Via Conservatorio 7 I20124 Mila Through . Pictures. What can we infer about this person just from their grocery list?. Possible Inferences. They have a dog (rawhide bones). They are hygienic/cleanly (Toothpaste, . Qtips. , wipes, Dish detergent). Intriguing Literature Forces the Reader to Ask Questions. Discuss. Why would an author choose to leave information out of his story? . 2. How do we, as readers, reliably fill in this information? . To Make an Inference . Objective: Using your senses to create observations, use your observations now to create an inference.. After we observe and collect data, we try to . explain . what may have happened.. This is called an inference. . Grades 3 – 5. © 2013 Texas Education Agency / The University of Texas System. “ Inferring is the bedrock of comprehension, not only in reading. We infer in many realms. Our life clicks along more smoothly if we can read the world as well as text. Inferring is about reading faces, reading body language, reading expressions, and reading tone as well as reading text.”. Susan Athey, Stanford GSB. Based on joint work with Guido Imbens, Stefan Wager. References outside CS literature. Imbens and Rubin Causal Inference book (2015): synthesis of literature prior to big data/ML. An.  inference is an idea or conclusion that's drawn from evidence and reasoning. . An . inference.  is an educated . guess.. When reading a passage: 1) Note the facts presented to the reader and 2) use these facts to draw conclusions about . To have seen or not to have seen. That is the question!. Sh. hh. hh. …I’m observing!. Observations. An observation is the gathering of information by using our . five senses. :. sight. smell. Kenneth A. Frank . Guan Saw, UT San Antonio. AERA workshop April 4, 2014 (. AERA on-line video – cost is $95. ). Motivation . Statistical inferences are often challenged because of uncontrolled bias. There may be bias due to uncontrolled confounding . Austin Nichols (Abt) & Linden McBride (Cornell). July 27, 2017. Stata Conference. Baltimore, MD. Overview. Machine learning methods dominant for classification/prediction problems.. Prediction is useful for causal inference if one is trying to predict propensity scores (probability of treatment conditional on observables);. Sciences: QUICK EXAMPLES. #. konfoundit. Kenneth A. . Frank. Ran . Xu; Zixi . Chen. ; I-Chien Chen, Guan Saw. 2018. (. AERA on-line video – cost is . $105. ). Motivation . Statistical inferences are often challenged because of uncontrolled bias. There may be bias due to uncontrolled confounding . © 2017 . ElementaryScienceTeachers.com. Pick A Card, Any Card…. © 2017 ElementaryScienceTeachers.com. What if I told you I would now take your card away?. © 2017 ElementaryScienceTeachers.com. Where is your card now?. Amy babysits almost every day after school. She often has to say no to families who want her to babysit because she is already busy.. What can you interpret about their activity?. Josh woke up early on Saturday morning and looked outside the window. The sun was out, and the heat was excruciating. His dad called to Josh and said, “It is a perfect day, don’t forget to bring a towel!” Josh grabbed a towel, and they quickly left the house.. Ernest Davis. Cognitum. 2016. July 11, 2016. TACIT . Toward Annotating Commonsense Inferences in Text. First text: Theft of the Mona Lisa. On a mundane morning in late summer in Paris, the impossible happened. The Mona Lisa vanished. On Sunday evening, August 20, 1911, Leonardo da Vinci's best-known painting was hanging in her usual place on the wall of the Salon .