PPT-The El Niño/ Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Cycle

Michelle LHeureux NOAA Climate Prediction Center CPC August 2013 Outline 1 Brief Overview of the Ocean and Atmosphere Normal vs ENSO conditions 2 The ENSO Cycle A Coupled Ocean Atmosphere System. 1 El Ni Allie Marquardt. Outline. Overview of El Niño. A Change in the Atmosphere. Resulting . Changes in the Ocean. Sea Surface Temperature. Thermocline. Rossby. Waves and Dissipation. What is El Niño?. El Niño is characterized by warm sea surface temperatures (SST) in the Pacific Ocean around the equator, but is associated with a large scale change in the ocean-atmosphere system. NORMAL. :. - Easterly trade winds between ± 30° latitude (Coriolis Force). - Sea Surface Height slant to west. - Warm basin in W. Pacific. - Cool surface in E. (upwelling H. Suzanne Fortin. Cold season severe weather climatology . Outline. Recent Annual Severe Weather Climatology. Distribution of of Severe Events During the Cold Season. Analysis of Severe Events and ENSO Cycle. Overview. The Slab Ocean El Nino. How good are the CMIP models?. Non-linearity. Seasonality (spring barrier). CP vs. EP. Teleconnections delayed feedback. Climate Change. Overview. The Slab Ocean El Nino. E. kman. S. piral. Cold Water Upwelling. “Normal” Conditions. G. lobal. O. cean. C. urrents. Walker Cells. Global Average Precipitation. AVERAGE JANUARY SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE. Southern Oscillation = Tahiti Pressure — Darwin Pressure. Simulation and Impact on ENSO Prediction. Kathy Pegion. University of Colorado/CIRES & NOAA/ESRL/PSD. Michael Alexander. NOAA/ESRL/PSD. NPO in NDJ (-1). . . . . Winds & Heat Flux. Anthony R. Lupo, Professor. Department of Soil, Environmental, and Atmospheric Science. 302 ABNR Building. University of Missouri . Columbia, MO 65211. Introduction. Climate Change has become an important issue for society to confront. We can’t avoid it…. Does having a La Nina. Impact . Severe Weather Frequencies?. What We Will Look At. Tornadoes frequency since 1950. Trends of Tornadoes since 1950. Mean Number of Tornadoes by Phases of ENSO. Tornado Frequency as a function of ENSO phase. Anthony R. Lupo, Professor. Department of Soil, Environmental, and Atmospheric Science. 302 ABNR Building. University of Missouri . Columbia, MO 65211. Introduction. Climate Change has become an important issue for society to confront. We can’t avoid it…. .”. Model composites (method . etc. ) 6 slides. Comparison real time forecast to those composites. ENSO Precipitation and Temperature Forecasts in the NMME: Composite Analysis and Verification. Li-Chuan Chen. Pages 484-487. EL NINO. . Go to this website and read this background information first:. http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/ninonina.html. You may need to come back to this website to fill in any notes that you missed. ):. What is it?. South America. Southeast Asia. Australia. North America. Normal . conditions . in equatorial . Pacific . Ocean. Warm . water. . in the w. estern Pacific. C. old . water . in the eastern . Southern Oscillation on Indian Summer Monsoon. . Indrani. Roy. &. Mat Collins. . 25. th. June, 2013. SAPRiSE. Project. Outline. . I: Observation. Role . of Sun and .