Impacts Of - PowerPoint Presentation

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Impacts Of Future Lifestyles On Residential Recycling Programs

Canadian Waste Sector SymposiumMontreal, QuebecNovember 9, 2011Geoff Love, Love EnvironmentMaria Kelleher, Kelleher Environmental

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Presentation OutlineLooking at the futureStart with the past and presentBrief look at how residential recycling has evolvedRecent changes to residential recycling materialsResearch on future lifestylesWhat this means for residential recycling system planning

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Residential Recycling in 1980’s and 1990’sLife used to be simple (in the old days!)Many original residential recycling programs developed in Canada and the US late 1980’s and 1990’s

For 20 years, our efforts have focussed on:Collecting paper, glass, metals, plasticsExpanding materials we collectStabilizing markets for processed materialsIncreasing participation and capture of materialsDriving recovery up and driving costs downMaking the system more efficient3Love EnvironmentSlide4

Recycling Systems More Complex From 2005 On….More materials added to residential recycling programsGreen Bin programs added to complexity of collectionMore single stream recycling systemsMRFs became larger and more complexMore user pay systems and container limitsLess garbage some communities moved to bi-weekly garbage collectionincreased capture in recycling programs

Composition and amounts of recyclables stayed generally the same4Love EnvironmentSlide5

Things began to Change in the late 2000’sComposition of recycling stream began to changeResidue rates increasedMarkets began to complain about quality of materials from MRFsOperators began to notice a drop in ONP (significant in some cases) and increase in OCCWith drop in paper and increase in convenience packaging, composition of recycling stream very different to a few years earlier – more items/picks; less weight/tonnes

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Implications of Changing Residential Recycling Material Composition on Recycling SystemMore plastics, less glass, less newspapers, more corrugated containersImpacts on collection systemLess heavier material

More lightweight and low density materialTruck will cube out soonerIncreases collection costsMRF designs need to change to accommodate different material mixMaterial revenues will be affected (reduced)6Love EnvironmentSlide7

Toronto Recycling Material Revenues (to the mid 2000s)71% to 75% of revenues from paper10% of revenues from aluminum10% to 12% of revenues from HDPE and PETIf paper continues to decrease, impacts on revenues could be significant

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Background to Toronto Future Blue Bin Study (2010)Toronto Residential Garbage, Green Bin and Blue Bin tonnages all lower 2009 vs 2008Significant drop in paper

fibres collected 2009 vs 2008 (15%)Lower paper tonnages had a significant impact on program revenues10-year Business Plan was being developedStaff needed to understand materials and amounts in the future Blue Bin for business planningKelleher Environmental hired to carry out a “high level” study to provide directional information8

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Future Blue Bin Study Project ElementsResearch future lifestylesResearch future packaging trendsCarry out in-store “packaging audits”Develop projections of Blue Bin tonnages and composition by material for 5 years and 10 years out

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Predicting the Future Is ChallengingYou can try to put well researched facts into sophisticated models, however, these are not always right…Leisure society due to automation“Paperless” society Bigger picture – life is changing and will continue to changeThe future is not “more of the same” – not just faster computers, high tech cars, smarter homes, more TV channels, but something differentLarge body of work by “futurists” used for this study

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Literature on the Future “I’ve seen the future brother, and its murder” - Leonard CohenFuturists:Centre for Future Studies; The Futurist; Forum for the Future; World Future Society, etcMore traditional literature:Canadian Food Trends to 2020The Future Consumer (Capgemini, UK)

The Future of Consumer Products Industry (IBM Global)Twilight of the American NewspaperDemographic Trends, etc.11Love EnvironmentSlide12

Demographic TrendsAging Canadianswe are living longerEvolving HouseholdsSmaller householdsFewer ChildrenMore 1-person households

More urban dwellersMore multi-family units (>50% in Toronto)12Love EnvironmentSlide13

Lifestyle TrendsThe Internet …(has changed everything)Handheld and mobile devices changing the way we live and communicateChanging meal patterns – fewer family dinnersShifting expenditures – more take away foodNewer faces in Canada – larger variety of foods

More shopping via internet – more food packagingConvenience is king…Re-sealable packagesMore ready to eat meals - e.g. salads from grocery storesComplicated packaging (to accommodate arthritic hands)More plastic packagingSmaller portion packaging13

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The “Death” of Newspapers

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Ontario ONP Numbers Dropping Significantly 2007 to 200915

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Impacts Of Drop in ONP in MRFPrinted paper was 55% ONP; 45% other paperNow 45% or less ONP; 55% or more other paperHarder/impossible to create #8 News baleMRFs now produce #6 News baleMills are getting used to this change (as they need the fibre)Used to think this was single stream system issue – now understand its a more complex combination of factors at play

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Impacts of Internet on Residential RecyclingLess/smaller newspapersMore shopping by internetPurchases are delivered by corrugated or boxboard container More OCC and OBB showing up in residential recycling programs

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Growth in US Internet Sales (as % of total sales)

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Growth in Canadian Internet Sales ($ billion per year)

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12 Packaging Trends Which Will Impact Residential RecyclingLight-weightingIncrease in multi-layer packagingMaterial substitution (mostly plastic replacing glass, Al, steel)

More fruits/veg packaged in thermoform plasticMore ready cooked meals and take out packaging (in thermoform plastic)SUPs (stand up pouches)Re-sealable packagingMore smaller single serve packagesMore snack packagingBrand owner and retailer led initiative (Sustainable packaging)Smart packaging – can tell when food is beginning to decayIncrease in bio-based packaging

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Projected Residential Recycling Material Changes Relative amounts of fibre and containers will change over time More plastic, less paperNewsprint amounts will decrease over time

Toronto ONP down 15% 2008 to 2009OCC will increase over timeAmount of plastic packaging will increaseGlass will decreaseMetals will stay about the same21

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Background To Toronto 2010 Packaging AuditsIdentify extent to which consumer items purchased in Toronto stores were in packaging which is:Recyclable now or Could be recycled in the future orIs unlikely to be recycled in the future

Look at packaging audit methods used elsewhere and modify to suit Toronto 2010 circumstances22Love EnvironmentSlide23

Packaging Audit Approaches From Other Jurisdictions“War on Waste” - UK Local Government Associationpurchase basket of goods (30) in 8 different stores to compare packaging efficiencyRepeated 2007, 2008, 2009The ULS (Use Less Stuff) Packaging Efficiency Study as it Relates To Waste Prevention (US)

300 products in different packaging formatsRepeated 1995, 200723Love EnvironmentSlide24

2010 Packaging AuditsPurchased 150 items in large grocery store:Consumer Price Index list (60 items) – reflected typical “shopping basket” in the early Blue Box yearsUse Less Stuff (ULS) US report listNew products identified through store visit which would not have been popular when CPI startedNew packaging formats which are gaining in popularity

Weighed empty package (each component) and package when full of product24Love EnvironmentSlide25

2010 Packaging AuditsCategorize each component as: Recyclable now; Recyclable in all plastic film program; Recyclable in all plastics program; Not recyclable for foreseeable future“Normalize” the data to take account of typical annual purchases of each product.

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Packaging Audit Results By Weight

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Packaging Audit ConclusionsAudit provides “snapshot” of the range of packaging formatsMany packages are recycled in current Toronto program“All film” program would increase diversionIncrease in thermoform PET for wide range of products“All plastics” program would increase diversionMany multi-layer packages which are not recyclable

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Comparison of Canadian Imports and Exports of PCF from 2000-200931Slide32

We collect it…we just can use (all) of it32Slide33

Plastics Exports (in pounds)Plastic export graph from Jerry Powell presentation at Halifax33

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The China Factor: Growth in Paper Manufacturing Business (2000 to 2015)

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Implications Of Changing Composition on Business PlanningFuture tonnages and composition impact on:CollectionProcessingMarketsRevenues

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Future ScenariosBased on Forum for the Future DEFRA work in UKModified for Canada/TorontoThree Scenarios Developed

Status Quo – focus on regionalFast Changes – good economy, increased oil prices, focus on globalSmaller World – bad economy, very high energy prices, focus on localMost Likely Scenario - Hybrid36Love EnvironmentSlide37

Recycling Material Tonnages in Toronto 2020 vs 2010 Baseline15% reduction in weight per household of printed paper and packaging in Blue Bin over 10 yearsReduction of 18% paper kg/

hh/year17% increase in plastic kg/hh/yearAmount of metals stays the same – flat kg/hh/yearDecrease of 50% glass kg/hh/year37

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ConclusionsThe world is changing at a rapid rate:Lifestyles are changingPackaging formats are changingAll of these changes impact on recycling business plansToronto Future Blue Bin Study was first to look at this issue and translate estimates into Business PlanningNeed to “refresh” the lifestyle and packaging research annually or bi-annually to catch new trends and plan for their impacts

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Thank YouGeoff Loveloveenvironment@routcom.com647-248-2500Maria Kellehermaria@kellenv.com416-567-7439

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