Using Research to Improve Identification of Terrorists - PowerPoint Presentation

Using Research to Improve Identification of Terrorists: Where We Are and Where We Need To Go Sarah L. Desmarais, Joseph Simons-Rudolph, Christine Shahan Brugh, & Samantha Allen Zottola

DisclosureThis material is based on work supported in whole or in part with funding from the Laboratory for Analytic Sciences (LAS). Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the LAS and/or any agency or entity of the U.S. Government.

Where we are nowCurrent Status of Research, Practice, and Policy

3 Research ProjectsSystematic review of the scientific literature on risk factors for terrorismCharacteristics of men and women involved in terrorismLocation and outcomes of terrorist plots

BackgroundOne strategy to prevent terrorism is to identify those at risk of becoming (more) radicalizedRequires knowledge of risk factors for:Membership in terrorist organizationsPerpetration of terrorist attacksState of the field Reliance on intelligence community, separate from research communityThousands upon thousands of academic papers

Research project #1Systematic Review of the Scientific Literature Desmarais, Brugh, Simons-Rudolph, et al. (2017)

Systematic Review of the LiteratureSystematic review of the (un)published literature on factors associated with outcomes:Membership in terrorist organizationsPerpetration of terrorist attacksGoals:Identify consensus, where it exists Drive future research directionsInform evidence-based counter terrorism strategies

Terrorism Definition“… the unlawful use of force or violence against persons or property to intimate or coerce a government, the civilian population, or any segment thereof, in furtherance of political or social objects.”Department of Justice (2017)

Systematic Review ProcessKeyword Searches terror* member*terror* affiliate* terror* radical* terror* predict*Databases Searched PsycINFO PsycArticles Web of Science National Criminal Justice Reference Service Abstracts (NCJRS) ProQuest Dissertation & Theses electronic databases Google Scholar Inclusion Criteria Related to the prediction of terrorism Addressed variables related to the process of radicalization or characteristics of terrorists Reported in peer-review journals, dissertations, theses, conference presentations, government reports, or book chapters Written in English or reliable translation available Produced between January 1, 1990, and December 31, 2015

Identification n = 1,346 Records identified through database searches Screening Included Eligibility n = 56 Additional records identified through other sources n = 1,067 Records excluded for not meeting inclusion criteria n = 130 Full-text records excluded for not meeting inclusion criteria n = 205 Records included in systematic review   n = 1,402 Records screened at abstract level n = 335 Full-text records assessed against inclusion criteria for eligibility n = 12,121 Records identified through database searches  n = 10,775 Records excluded for not meeting inclusion criteria

CodingArticle MethodologySubstantive focusData sourceTerrorist characteristicsStudy characteristicsContentIndividualEnvironmental Radicalization Outcome Membership Perpetration All articles coded by two research assistants Subset k = 36 (17.6%)

205 Articles Included in Review

Ideology

Type of Terrorist

Position in Organization

Type of Attack

Empirical Evidence - Individual FactorsExamined most frequently with (at least some) support DomainFactors Membership Attack Sociodemographic Age SES* X X X X Criminal History Prior arrest X Work and Education Educational attainment Employment status Problems at work/school X X X X X Relationships Single No children X X X X Attitudes Grievance X X

Empirical Evidence - Individual FactorsExamined frequently with mixed supportRace/ethnicity (membership)Examined infrequently but some supportPlace of birth (membership)Islamic faith (attacks) Military experienceForeign travel historyCurrent evidence does not supportMental health

Empirical Evidence - Environmental FactorsExamined (relatively) frequently with some supportGeographic region (membership)Place of residenceExamined infrequently but some supportGeographic region (attacks)Income inequalityExamined infrequently with mixed support% foreign born (membership)% Muslim (membership)Number of ethnic groups

Empirical Evidence – Radicalization MotivationExamined frequently with some supportIdeology Desire for revenge/vengeance Examined infrequently but some supportMedia/government influences Social drivers (attacks)Examined infrequently with mixed supportDesire to be with others of like mind (membership)Desire to be known (membership)Social drivers (membership)Examined frequently with no supportDesire to be with others of like mind (attacks) Desire to be known (attacks )

Empirical Evidence – Radicalization ProcessExamined infrequently in relation to membership:Some supportTriggering eventReligious conversionFamily member/friend in organization Mixed supportAge of recruitmentTriggering event (attacks)No supportCombat trainingAcceptance of Jihad

Summary of Empirical Evidence9 factors with at least some empirical evidence :Young age Low socioeconomic statusPrior arrestAt least high school educationUnemploymentSingleHaving a grievance (political or personal)Specific geographic region Geographic area (i.e., urban or rural ) Triggering event may act as impetus for radicalization.

What is a risk factor?Must meet 3 criteria:Be associated with the outcome of interest.Distinguish statistically between groups. Precede outcome of interest.

Conclusions Knowledge regarding factors associated with terrorism is limited.Could not assert that any characteristics were risk factors.Many widely accepted ‘risk’ factors not actually related to terrorism.Bias and discriminationReduced accuracy Others may be related, but not in anticipated direction.Example: country of birth

Research project #2Characteristics of Men and Women Involved in Terrorism Brugh, Desmarais, Zottola & Simons-Rudolph (2018)

IntroductionWomen are increasingly involved in the male-dominated arena of terrorism (Chermak & Gruenewald, 2015; Ness, 2005)Few investigations of female terrorists (Jacques & Taylor, 2009; Desmarais et al., 2017)Reasons to believe gender difference in radicalization (González et al., 2014)

Characteristics of Men and Women Involved in TerrorismSecondary analyses of data drawn from the Western Jihadism Project (WJP) (Klaussen, 2018) RQ2: Do terrorism-involved men and women differ on demographics, criminality, radicalization, and foreign fighting?RQ1: What are the characteristics of terrorism-involved women?

Methods Matched Comparison Group (n = 538; 272 women, 266 men) Case control matching Between-Group Comparisons Descriptive Statistics Women (n = 405) Full Sample (n = 5,718) RQ1 RQ2

ResultsCharacteristics of Women (n = 405) DemographicsEthnically diverse72% legal residentsUnder one-third converted to Islam80% completed high school or collegeRarely noted criminality prior to radicalization (2%) or after (7%) Radicalization 22.52 years at radicalization 23.11 at first foreign fighting attempt 27.55 at first law enforcement contact 63% linked to > 1 terrorist organization Half attempted foreign fighting; 76% successful on 1 st attempt.

ResultsGender Differences (n = 538) DemographicsNo differences:Conversion to IslamEducationDiffered in professionsMen had more crimes prior to radicalizationNo difference in post-radicalization criminality Radicalization No difference on number of affiliations with terrorist organizations Differed on specific organization Role within organization Men were involved in more plots More martyrdom/suicide operations

Conclusions

Research project #3Location and Outcome of Terrorist Plots Brugh, Desmarais, Schultz, Zottola, & Simons-Rudolph (in prep)

BackgroundEvidence for differences in number of terrorist events by country, however no examination in the types of events.Research comparing spatial patterns of criminals and terrorists shows similarities (Griffiths et al., 2016)Relationship between state failure and terrorism has been well studied (Coggins, 2014; Alaimo & Tong, 2017)

Location of PlotsWestern Jihadist Project (WJP) (Klaussen, 2018)807 unique terrorist plots in 24 countries AlgeriaDjibouti Libya Somalia Australia Finland Luxembourg Spain Austria France Mauritania Sweden Belgium Germany Netherlands Switzerland Canada Ireland Norway United Kingdom Denmark Italy Portugal United States

Plot Frequency by Country

Country Groupings for Analyses

χ 2(12,86) = 23.29, p = .025

χ2(8,806) = 109.70, p < .001

χ 2(4,806) = 132.51, p < .001

χ2(12,806) = 109.52, p < .001

χ 2(6,807) = 74.82, p < .001 ( n = 463)

χ2(4,86) = 9.49, p = .050 ( n = 86)

p = .768

ConclusionsMajority of plots were Jihadist affiliatedNorth America only country with Hezbollah affiliated plotsSignificantly more sting operations in North AmericaExcept AustraliaHigher prevalence of fundraising/support in North AmericaDifferences in suicide attacks by country overall Sample sizes too small to detect between-group differences.No differences in number of deaths by country

Where do we go from hereNext Steps for Research, Practice, and Policy

Research PrioritiesFurther investigation of potential risk factors within subgroupsIndividual characteristicsCountry of birth, being Muslim, military experience, foreign travel history, family or friend in a terrorist or extremist organizationEnvironmental characteristicsIncome inequality, and media and government influencesLongitudinal studies with non-radicalized comparison groupsExamination of interactions or clustering of factorsEffectiveness of counterterrorism practices and policies

Policy and Practice ConsiderationsInsufficient evidence to inform evidence-based strategies.

Policy and Practice ConsiderationsCounterterrorism strategies can increase risk of radicalization.Contribute to a sense of persecution or discrimination. May (further) radicalize individual or group  ‘justify’ terrorist activity Multilevel approach and specificity neededOne-size-fits-all strategies that focus on few risk factors of limited value.Example: Young age, male gender, and single. Ongoing TRI-alogue and information sharingAcademicHomeland securityIntelligence

Questions/Discussion

Thank you!Contact information: Dr. Sarah L. Desmarais Associate Professor Department of Psychology North Carolina State University Phone: (919) 515-1723 sdesmarais@ncsu.edu www.ncsuforensicpsychology.com Twitter: @DrSLDesmarais Dr. Joseph Simons-Rudolph Teaching Assistant Professor Department of Psychology North Carolina State University Phone: (919) 513-7392 jmrudolp@ncsu.edu