Interactive Workshop 2 WHY WE ARE HERE Success for EVERY young person Cradle to Career OUR VISION A key component to a successful community includes academic achievement and the safety and wellbeing of its children and youth ID: 648635
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Slide1
LEANing Into
Results Oriented Work
Interactive WorkshopSlide2
2
WHY WE ARE HERE
Success for EVERY young person. Cradle to Career.
OUR VISION
A key component to a successful community includes academic achievement, and the safety and well-being of its children and youth.
When ALL children and youth succeed, our community succeeds.
Why? Because children and youth become our workforce, leaders and community members, and it’s no secret that communities who have a talented workforce attract and retain employers. With jobs, income, benefits, etc., families are able to live and contribute to a better quality of life.
This IS our true north. Success for EVERY child – Cradle to Career.Slide3
3
WHAT ACYI IS ALL ABOUT
Together we can do more/better on behalf of children and youth.
Outcomes based work (using Continuous Improvement) is how we are going to make it happen.Slide4
4
NATIONAL AFFILIATIONSlide5
So Glad You Are Here!
5
WELCOME & INTRODUCTIONS
Youth Initiative Institute Team
FACILITATORS
Latife Bulur Kowalski,
North America Master Black Belt, Cummins Inc.
Lisandra Gonzales
, Partnership Director
Ashley Edinger
, Partnership Associate
Check-In
Name
Organization
What are you trying to improve in your space with CI?
What is your background with CI?Slide6
6
HOUSEKEEPING ITEMS
Today’s workshop is scheduled for the full day
Interactive work session
Breakfast, Lunch, and afternoon coffee/snacks will be provided
Be on time from lunch and breaks!
Ask questions at anytime
Handouts
in your notebook and
will be available
on our website
Opportunity to provide us feedback via a survey at the end of the session
Bathroom Located:
Wifi Password:Slide7
Walk out of here today with a plan to improve the area you identified in your own work space
Have a few ‘Continuous Improvement’ Tools to support your work
Inspire you to use ‘Continuous Improvement’ in other areas of your work
Help align you to more support from ACYI
7
SESSION GOALSSlide8
8
Overview of NotebooksSlide9
9
CREDENTIALS
Bachelor’s degree in Psychology & Sociology from the University of Colorado, Boulder
Master’s degree in Statistics from the University of Denver.
Since 2010, Latife has been working for Cummins Inc., currently as the Master Black Belt serving the North America Distribution Business.
This role involves the management of the 6 Sigma and Continuous Improvement program for North America.
This includes providing coaching for existing Green and Black Belts as well as training new Belts and Project Managers.
Latife Bulur Kowalski
North America
Master Black Belt
Cummins Inc.
Youth Initiative Team Credentials:
Certified in LEAN by Denver Health
Trained in Results Based Facilitation by StriveTogether and the Annie E. Casey FoundationSlide10
10
CHARTERING
1
NOTEBOOK
SECTIONSlide11
What Is A Project?
First, what ISN’T a Project?
A project is NOT a PROCESS, which is repeating the same task over and over again… A PROJECT is a unique, one-time event.A
Project has:GOALS: Has clearly defined, unique goals and deliverablesAN ENDING: Has a definite beginning and end. Is temporary and does not repeat.COMPLEXITY: Is complex enough that it needs to be managed (see the next page for more…)Slide12
The Project Cycle
12
PlanPlan your projectAnalyze your failures & predict results
Act
Act on all improvementsTake action to standardize & controlDo
Do the plan
Taking calculated risks
Study
Study the results
Taking calculated risksSlide13
Named after the size of paper
Designed to help us begin eating the elephant
13
A3:
YOUR BLUE PRINT
Meant to be a pencil to paper tool – not to be overthought or to spend too much time getting it perfect
Summarizes the story of the work that you are doing to solve your problem
If the problem you are trying to solve is too large for the paper, it might be too large of a problem to focus on
Meant to help you get started and is a living document that is continually updated to show progressSlide14
A3 TEMPLATE
Where are you now?
What are the current conditions?
What are the symptoms?
What impact is it having?
Who is involved in the work?
What is the problem?
Why is this a problem?
What measurement are you using to know the problem?
Does the data show this is actually a problem?
Where do you want to be?
What is the target you want to achieve?
What is your goal for improvement?
Consider both long-term and short-term targets.
What is preventing you from getting there?
What are the root causes?
Where will you focus your work?
What is within your sphere of influence and control to accomplish?
What will you work on?
How will you know it is working?
Be specific about the steps you will take, and identify what specific data you will collect to measure the impact of your intervention.
What happened?
What were your results?
Collect data quickly to test your theory about the problem.
Use your data to Adapt, Adopt, or Abandon.
Did everything go according to plan?
What did you learn?
Based on what you learned, what will you do next?Slide15
Definition/Purpose of Chartering the Project
Chartering the Project is formally starting and recognizing the existence of the project.A Project Charter should answer 3 key questions:
Why are we doing this project? … in the form of a basic business case or financial analysisWhat are the objectives of this project? … in the form of a preliminary scope
documentWho is involved in the project? … in the form of identifying the key stakeholders in the project.
Make the Invisible
VisibleSlide16
16
PROCESS MAP
2
NOTEBOOK
SECTIONSlide17
A3 TEMPLATE
Where are you now?
What are the current conditions?
What are the symptoms?
What impact is it having?
Who is involved in the work?
What is the problem?
Why is this a problem?
What measurement are you using to know the problem?
Does the data show this is actually a problem?
Where do you want to be?
What is the target you want to achieve?
What is your goal for improvement?
Consider both long-term and short-term targets.
What is preventing you from getting there?
What are the root causes?
Where will you focus your work?
What is within your sphere of influence and control to accomplish?
What will you work on?
How will you know it is working?
Be specific about the steps you will take, and identify what specific data you will collect to measure the impact of your intervention.
What happened?
What were your results?
Collect data quickly to test your theory about the problem.
Use your data to Adapt, Adopt, or Abandon.
Did everything go according to plan?
What did you learn?
Based on what you learned, what will you do next?Slide18
Process Flow Map Introduction
We will discuss common process flow maps
Basic flow maps
Cross-functional flow mapsSlide19
Basic Process Flow Maps
Slide20
Basic Flow Map Introduction
Basic process flow maps are very simple mapsThey graphically depict a process’s order-of-events
Process flow maps reveal gaps, delays, strengths / weaknesses, hidden factories, etc.A project team might need multiple process flow mapsSlide21
Scoping With Process Flow Maps
Process flow maps help visualize a process and may help scope the projectEnsure the project’s scope matches the start-to-end points of the process flow map
This project’s Y statement: Improve the average order fulfillment time from 72 hours to 7±0.5 hours.Slide22
Process Flow Mapping Process Overview
Review the map and gain consensus that it adequately defines your overall
process
Update the maps regularlyVisit the actual process to confirm the map is adequateSlide23
Cross Functional Maps
Slide24
Cross Functional Map (Swim Lane)
Cross functional maps (CFMs) build on the basic process flow map
Time
Place process steps in the appropriate “
swim
” lanes
Processes move left to right with time
Align concurrent processes vertically
List
functions
in the left columnSlide25
Mapping Media
Many media options are available for process mappingComputer programs: Visio, Power Point, Word, Excel, etc.
Paper: Post Its on a wall, flip-chart / easel pads, etc.Choose a media option you and your team are comfortable usingRecord your map electronically (picture, file, etc.) for future reference
Visio and Power Point versions of the same processSlide26
Cross Functional Process Mapping Exercise Slide27
27
DATA HANDLING/CHARTS
3
NOTEBOOK
SECTIONSlide28
A3 TEMPLATE
Where are you now?
What are the current conditions?
What are the symptoms?
What impact is it having?
Who is involved in the work?
What is the problem?
Why is this a problem?
What measurement are you using to know the problem?
Does the data show this is actually a problem?
Where do you want to be?
What is the target you want to achieve?
What is your goal for improvement?
Consider both long-term and short-term targets.
What is preventing you from getting there?
What are the root causes?
Where will you focus your work?
What is within your sphere of influence and control to accomplish?
What will you work on?
How will you know it is working?
Be specific about the steps you will take, and identify what specific data you will collect to measure the impact of your intervention.
What happened?
What were your results?
Collect data quickly to test your theory about the problem.
Use your data to Adapt, Adopt, or Abandon.
Did everything go according to plan?
What did you learn?
Based on what you learned, what will you do next?Slide29
Objectives
Types of dataTypes of graphsMeasures of the center, spread, and shape of the dataSlide30
Types of Data
Two types of data are available:
Attribute (discrete) data
Values are one or more of the following:
‘Counted’
Categorical (shoe size #5,6,7,8… )
Boolean (good/bad, true/false, yes/no)
Example:
number of typos per sales contract
Variable (continuous) data
Numeric values
Example:
GPA of high school studentsSlide31
Exercise: what type of
data do you have?
Slide32
Graph the
D
istribution of Data
: Dotplot Car washing process Y: wash time in minutes Measured (variables) wash time for 150 washes
Each dot is one “event” (i.e. Wash) at a given valueAs the dots accumulate, the actual process performance can be seen (“distribution”)Slide33
Graph the Distribution
of Data: Histogram
The car wash process data has been grouped into “intervals
”, with the number of times that a data point falls within a given interval determining the height of the interval bar.Slide34
Graph the Distribution of
Data: Pareto Chart
Pareto charts are used to show how frequently a defect or event falls into a particular category
Pareto charts are especially useful in the early stages of a project including initial capabilitySlide35
Graph Variables
Over Time
: Time Series
Plot
Graphically displays data collected over timeSlide36
Measures of Data Center and
VariationSome of the graphs in the remainder of this module refer to three important measures of data
CenterVariation
Shape The next slides will define these measuresSlide37
Measures of Data
Center
Mean: Arithmetic
average of a set of values, denoted by Reflects the influence of all valuesStrongly influenced by extreme values
22.02
Median: Reflects the 50% rankThe center number of a sorted list (21.94 in this case)
Is
not influenced by extreme scores
Slide38
Graph the
Distribution of Data
: Boxplots
Whisker (Upper): Highest Point w/in 1.5·Box Heights From Top Of Box75% 3
rd Quartile
50% (Median)
25%
1
st
Quartile
Outlier
Boxplots show the spread and center of the data
Whisker
(Lower
):
Lowest
Point w/in 1.5·Box Heights From
Bottom
Of
BoxSlide39
Measures of
Data Variation
Range:
the distance between the extreme values of a data set (highest – lowest or maximum to minimum)Standard deviation (σ): the square root of the varianceSlide40
The Normal Distribution
Most
natural phenomena and man-made processes are distributed normally, or can be represented as normally distributed (through transformations)A normal distribution can be described completely by knowing only the:
mean andstandard deviation
Distribution One
Distribution Two
Distribution Three
What is the difference among these three normal distributions?Slide41
Data Planning Exercise Slide42
42
ROOT CAUSE ANALYSIS
4
NOTEBOOK
SECTIONSlide43
A3 TEMPLATE
Where are you now?
What are the current conditions?
What are the symptoms?
What impact is it having?
Who is involved in the work?
What is the problem?
Why is this a problem?
What measurement are you using to know the problem?
Does the data show this is actually a problem?
Where do you want to be?
What is the target you want to achieve?
What is your goal for improvement?
Consider both long-term and short-term targets.
What is preventing you from getting there?
What are the root causes?
Where will you focus your work?
What is within your sphere of influence and control to accomplish?
What will you work on?
How will you know it is working?
Be specific about the steps you will take, and identify what specific data you will collect to measure the impact of your intervention.
What happened?
What were your results?
Collect data quickly to test your theory about the problem.
Use your data to Adapt, Adopt, or Abandon.
Did everything go according to plan?
What did you learn?
Based on what you learned, what will you do next?Slide44
Objectives
Review different failure analysis tools:
5 WhysFault Tree Analysis (FTA)
Failure Mode Effects Analysis (FMEA)Apply appropriate failure analysis tool in exerciseSlide45
Video Example
Show YouTube clips of Direct TV commercials to illustrate 5 Whys
45Slide46
Benefits Of The 5 Whys
Help identify the root cause of a problem. Determine the relationship between different root causes of a problem.
One of the simplest tools; easy to complete without statistical analysis.
46Slide47
Determine Root Cause (5 Whys)
The 5 Whys is a great CI/Quality tool that doesn’t involve a statistical hypothesis and in many cases can be completed without a data collection plan.
Asking “Why?” may be a favorite technique of a three year old child, but it could teach you a valuable quality lesson.
By repeatedly asking the question “Why” (five is a good rule of thumb), you can peel away the layers of symptoms which can lead to the root cause of a problem. 47Slide48
How To Complete The 5 Whys
Write down the specific problem. Writing the issue helps you formalize the problem and describe it completely. It also helps a team focus on the same problem.
Ask Why the problem happens and write the answer down below the problem.If the answer you just provided doesn’t identify the root cause of the problem that you wrote down in step 1, ask Why again and write that answer down.
Loop back to step 3 until the team is in agreement that the problem’s root cause is identified. Again, this may take fewer or more times than five Whys.
48Slide49
5 Whys & FTAs
The 5 Whys can be used individually or as a part of an FTA. The FTA helps you explore all potential or real causes that result in a single defect or failure.
Once all inputs are established on the FTA, you can use the 5 Whys technique to drill down to the root causes
.49Slide50
F
T
A = FMEA
FMEA is for “what can happen”
(assessing risks in Project Management)
FTA is for “what ha
s
or is
ha
p
pen
ing”
(
assessing
issues in
Project Management
)Slide51
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FTA
Creati
o
n
Build the
F
T
A
left
-t
o
-
right
Use
the
“5
Wh
y’s”
method
Physics
and logic
Must be data based
Must be specif
i
c
and measureable
Why
could that happen?
Why
could that happen?
Why
could that happen?
Why
could that happen?
Why
could that happen?Slide52
FTA
Creati
on
Each section, or “branch” of the FTA
must have the two following
characteristics– A phys
i
cal
or logical
feature
Load,
stress, strength, voltage,
resistance,
temperature, etc
–
A
measureable
adject
i
ve
T
oo
high,
too lo
w
, etc
Branchesassi
gnable ca
use
physics & logicphy
sics
& logi
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FTA
Creati
on
Followed
2
.
Process
Step
7
Root
Cause for Assi
g
na
b
le Caus
e
:
“The
B
i
g
3”
1
.
Process
Not
Doesn’t
Exist
3
.
Process
Is
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It
may
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s
,
or maybe only
3
,
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FTA
Sanity
Check
Does
this…
cause
this?
which
causes
this?
which
causes
this?
which
causes
this?
The
bes
t
F
T
A
check
Proof
/
edit
the
F
T
A
by
reading
right-to-
left
–
Scrutin
i
ze
the logic
Fai
l
ure MechanismSlide55
FTA
Project Lead Tips
Stay focused o
n the failure mechanism – not the solution.
Use open-end questions to engage
entire team:How
is this happening?
What
can cause
t
his?
Keep
team emotions
in
c
heck
–
just
the
fac
t
s!
Face to face FTAs to encourage discussionSlide56
FTA
Team Member Tips
Incomplete
teams will result in incomplete FTAs!No “Lone Ranger”
processesRequires
good cross-functional participation
Tap into knowledge
Share what you KNOW has been going wrong
Be open to learn about other failures you may not know aboutSlide57
Failure Modes and
Effects Analysis Overview
FMEASlide58
FMEA Definition
Failure Modes and
Effects Analysis (FMEA) is a structured approach to:Identify the ways a product or process
can fail Estimate and prioritize the risk associated with specific failure causes Identify actions needed to reduce or eliminate excessive risk FMEA is meant to be a “before – the – event” action, not an “after – the – fact” exercise, however they may be used as a factor filter when the problem does not have adequate evidence for the FTA approach
1: AIAG “FMEA”, 4
th EditionSlide59
Risk
FMEAs help organize risk assessment and track mitigating actions and resultsFMEA risk levels are numerical assessments of:
The severity of the effects of a failure mode on the customer andThe likelihood the failure may occur during the life of the product or process
andThe effectiveness of existing ways to prevent or detect the failure mode before the customer is affectedThere are many sources of risk; some are shown belowSlide60
Project Teams
FMEAs depend on a cross-functional group of experts including someone experienced in leading themFMEA teams include the project core team and project-related experts such as:
Affected operators, administrators, and supervisorsTechnical
expertsFinance / human resources / information technology (IT) expertsSlide61
FMEA Step 1
List process input, items, or functions and their requirements in the FMEA
Entries come from upstream tools such as process maps
Teams detail requirements; these should be measurableSlide62
FMEA Step 2
Determine failure mode(s)
Failure modes are ways the function or item could fail to meet the requirement as perceived by the customer
One failure mode per line; add lines to capture all relevant failure modesSlide63
FMEA Step 3
Determine the effect on the customer for each failure mode
Effects must be stated from the customer’s perspective (warning light illuminated, reduced power, delay in payment received, amputation possible, etc.)
Multiple effects may be listed in each row
Add sufficient detail to comments so future readers understand themSlide64
FMEA Step 4
Identify potential assignable causes of each failure mode
These are the assignable causes for the project; describe them as things that can be corrected or controlled
Possible assignable causes verified to significantly contribute to the problem become the focus of the project; these are what you’ll fix!In many cases, there will be more than one cause for a failure mode
Add sufficient detail to comments to be clear to future readersSlide65
18 of 34
FMEA
Step 5
List current prevention and detection controls for each cause and failure modePrevention (leading control): these eliminate the cause of the failure or failure mode and are the preferred ‘control’. (e.g. failsafing, automated control, setup verifications)Detection (lagging control): these recognize and flag the failure before the customer is exposed (e.g.
audits, checklists, inspection, testing, training, PMs)If an obvious control is available, the team should consider immediate action on it.
List only real, current, and in-use controls. Include documented procedures and instructions where they exist.Slide66
FMEA Step 6
Assign 1-10 integer SEV, OCC, and DET ratings to each row
SEV (1=not severe, 10=severe)OCC
(1=no occurrences likely, 10=occurrence very likely)DET (1=failure is not possible, 10=failure will not be detected) These values will be used to calculate the risk priority number (RPN)
Each failure mode will have only one SEV value
Find the highest SEV for each failure mode and use that SEV for all entries of that failure modeSlide67
FMEA
Step
7
Calculate RPNs and sort the FMEA by RPNUse the “calculate RPNs” macro command
RPN is not absolute; teams scale or bias SEV, OCC, and DET scores, even if unintentionally
RPN = Severity x Occurrence x Detection
Effects
Likelihood
ControlsSlide68
FMEA Step 8
Determine recommended actions to reduce the high RPN risks
Actions are recommended for only the high RPNsActions are derived by the team through brainstorming and other creative innovation approaches
An action can be to conduct follow up analysis!Slide69
FMEA – Re-Ranking
Save your FMEA for after all your improvements are in place!
After improvements, did the severity, occurrence or detection improve?Re-rank the same failures now that your improvements are in place:Slide70
Root Cause Analysis Exercise Slide71
71
LUNCH BREAKSlide72
72
SOLUTION SELECTION
5
NOTEBOOK
SECTIONSlide73
A3 TEMPLATE
Where are you now?
What are the current conditions?
What are the symptoms?
What impact is it having?
Who is involved in the work?
What is the problem?
Why is this a problem?
What measurement are you using to know the problem?
Does the data show this is actually a problem?
Where do you want to be?
What is the target you want to achieve?
What is your goal for improvement?
Consider both long-term and short-term targets.
What is preventing you from getting there?
What are the root causes?
Where will you focus your work?
What is within your sphere of influence and control to accomplish?
What will you work on?
How will you know it is working?
Be specific about the steps you will take, and identify what specific data you will collect to measure the impact of your intervention.
What happened?
What were your results?
Collect data quickly to test your theory about the problem.
Use your data to Adapt, Adopt, or Abandon.
Did everything go according to plan?
What did you learn?
Based on what you learned, what will you do next?Slide74
Objectives
Review tools used to identify potential solutionsEvaluate/ select potential solutionsSlide75
Brainstorming: What is it?
Brainstorming and / or Mind Mapping
Group creativity technique Efforts are made to find a conclusion for a specific
problemGathering a list of ideas spontaneously contributed by its membersSlide76
Brainstorming
Tips
Identify the problem to be solved (Problem Statement)Capture individual ideas first (Post-it Notes)
Consolidate ideas into a central placeAvoid criticism while brainstormingEvaluate and build on each other’s ideasEncourage diversity in thinkingInclude stakeholders, subject matter experts and the project teamSlide77
“Itself” Method
The Ideal Final Result can be expressed in terms of “The Problem Taking Care of Itself
”Examples of Ideal Final Result “Itself” Method
Lawn uses seed that only grows to a specific set lengthPet dishes dispense food / water on a scheduleCars drive themselvesSlide78
Possible Resources
to Consider:
Material resourcesModified materials, waste, raw materials, system elements
Time resourcesParallel operations, pre/post workInformation resourcesPeople resourcesField resourcesEnergy in system or environmentSpace resourcesEmpty space, partially allocated space (ex: one shift uses)
Function resourcesPrimary & secondary effects of features or attributesSlide79
Titanic Exercise
What is the Ideal Final result?
2,224
people were on boardHad enough lifeboats for 1,178 peopleRescue ship is 4 hours awayIt will take 2 hours for the Titanic to sink (and they knew it!)The engine kept working for 20 minutes4 minutes in the water is fatalThere was a large iceberg that the boat hitWhat resources:
Did they have that they didn’t use or could have used differently
?Just brainstorm and write down ideas for nowSlide80
Selecting the Best Solution
We did a good job of brainstorming ideas, what do we do with them?The Pugh Matrix is the tool commonly used for solution evaluations.Slide81
Step 1:
Form Screening Matrix
Team discusses criteria (requirements or metrics)Attach individual solution ideas across the top
.Requirement Statements on left vertical axis – Black levels from KJ
Ideas across the top horizontalSlide82
Step 2: Select
a Reference Datum
Determine datum against which to compare ideasCurrent process is typically set as reference datum
Otherwise pick “best” solution (team judgment)Slide83
Step 3: Run
the Matrix
Complete one requirement or metric at a time
Compare each solution to the current state for that requirementWhen you rate the solution against the requirement or metric, use:+ Better than referenceS Same as reference-
Worse than referenceSlide84
Step 4: Evaluate
the Matrix
The Pugh matrix document calculates the +, -, and S independently for each individual solution.Value each individual solution, no matter how many +’s or -’s that you may get from it.
Although you may get 3 +’s and 10 -’s, the solution still has 3 good characteristics and may prove valuable.Build Hybrid solutions from combining +’s. Add the Hybrids to the matrixSlide85
Step 5: Attack Negatives
Look at each negative (-) and, where possible, generate new solutions to turn it into a positive
(+)Create more hybrid solutionsSlide86
Step 6: Rerun
the Matrix (repeat step 3)
Helps verify the best solutions. Once again…
Complete one row or column at a timeCompare each solution to datum for that requirement or metricSlide87
Step 7: Establish a New Reference Datum
Based on analysis, select
new datum. The hybrid solution now becomes the datum
Gives different perspectiveSlide88
Step 8: Select Dominant Solution
Review solutions
with stakeholdersIn some cases, customers may need to be involved in the final solution selection
processSlide89
Solution Selection ExampleSlide90
Exercise
Work with your team to understand the requirements and how your current process measures up. (Pugh matrix steps 1 & 2)If your team has solutions in mind already, continue to the next steps.
Be prepared to review your results with the class.Slide91
91
MANAGING SCHEDULES & RESOURCES
6
NOTEBOOK
SECTIONSlide92
A3 TEMPLATE
Where are you now?
What are the current conditions?
What are the symptoms?
What impact is it having?
Who is involved in the work?
What is the problem?
Why is this a problem?
What measurement are you using to know the problem?
Does the data show this is actually a problem?
Where do you want to be?
What is the target you want to achieve?
What is your goal for improvement?
Consider both long-term and short-term targets.
What is preventing you from getting there?
What are the root causes?
Where will you focus your work?
What is within your sphere of influence and control to accomplish?
What will you work on?
How will you know it is working?
Be specific about the steps you will take, and identify what specific data you will collect to measure the impact of your intervention.
What happened?
What were your results?
Collect data quickly to test your theory about the problem.
Use your data to Adapt, Adopt, or Abandon.
Did everything go according to plan?
What did you learn?
Based on what you learned, what will you do next?Slide93
Definition/Purpose of Schedule Management
Schedule management is identifying and tracking work tasks, dependencies, and timing for a project.A schedule helps you:
Track the day-to-day progress of workAnticipate events that can impact the project (vacations, holidays..)
Focus on and understand the CRITICAL PATH. The Critical Path is that sequence of dependant tasks which will impact the timing of the entire project if delayed or accelerated.Manage change… to demonstrate in a data-based way the impact of changes and the need for resources.
What is the power of a deadline?Slide94
Let’s Outline This Module …
We will build a schedule in 4 steps:Figure out which tasks must go in what order
Estimate/establish the task durationsCalculate the critical pathMap that information onto a schedule diagramSlide95
Module Outline
We will build a schedule in 4 steps:Figure out which tasks must go in what order
Estimate/establish the task durationsCalculate the critical pathMap that information onto a schedule diagramSlide96
Let’s Map A Project’s Task “Dependencies”
Logic Connection
Activity
A
B
D
C
H
J
F
I
G
E
This is called a
“Network Diagram”Slide97
Data Set For Project X
Can you create a Network
Diagram for Project X?
1. A is first activity2. B, C, and D are dependent on A3. E and F are dependent on B4. G is dependent on C
5. H is dependent on C and D6. I
is dependent on F and G7. J is dependent on E, I, and H8. J is the last activity
Logic Connection
ActivitySlide98
Network Diagram
(Project X)
Logic Connection
Activity
A
C
B
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
Why is this exercise a lot harder to do in reality?
Rev 7Slide99
Module Outline
We will build a schedule in 4 steps:Figure out which tasks must go in what order (Precedence)
Estimate/establish the task durationsCalculate the critical pathMap that information onto a schedule diagramSlide100
Activity Time Estimates
Deterministic time estimates are used for activities:That are well defined
That are similar to activities that have been done beforeTo which there is high confidence in the ability to estimate the duration
Deterministic estimates are usually determined by:Previous experienceLessons LearnedProject documentationSlide101
How much buffer?
Option 1: Westheimer’s Rule: “To estimate the time it takes to do a task, estimate the time you think it should take, multiply by two, then change the unit of measure to the next highest unit. Thus we allocate two days for a one-hour task.”
Option 2 (recommended!): Be realistic: Where there is risk/variability, plan for it!
Be up-front: Don’t hide your buffer, make it visible!Hidden buffer may just add unnecessary time to your project: Parkinson’s Law: “Work will expand to fill the time allocated for it!”Slide102
Module Outline
We will build a schedule in 4 steps:Figure out which tasks must go in what order (Precedence)
Estimate/establish the task durationsCalculate the critical pathMap that information onto a schedule diagramSlide103
Introduction to Critical Path
Notice: In this project, tasks B, C, and D can’t start until task A is complete, and task E cannot start until tasks B, C and D are complete.Slide104
Introduction to Critical Path
Now let’s map that project over time…
Note that this view of a schedule is called a “Gantt Chart”Slide105
Introduction to Critical Path
Float (
or
Slack Time)
is the amount of time that an activity can be delayed without delaying the project.Slide106
Introduction to Critical Path
Critical Path
is the path through the project tasks in which
none of the activities have slack time.Slide107
Why Critical Path Analysis?
It’s where you have the most riskIt’s where you can improveIt helps you track impact on your project when things changeSlide108
How Do I Calculate Critical Path?
You need two pieces of information: Dependencies for every task…
All tasks have a predecessor (except for the very first project task)All tasks have a successor (except for the very last project task)
Duration for every taskThen you can calculate critical path, By hand! For simple projects, you can get an idea by finding the sequence/path of tasks that takes the longest from project start to finish!Slide109
Module Outline
We will build a schedule in 4 steps:Figure out which tasks must go in what order (Precedence)
Estimate/establish the task durationsCalculate the critical pathMap that information onto a schedule diagramSlide110
Schedule Formats
There are two basic schedule formats…
“Network Diagram*
Gantt Chart* Note that Network Diagrams are sometimes called “Precedence Diagrams”Focused on task sequence and dependencies
Focused on durations and start/finish dates
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Task A
Task B
Task C
Task D
Task E
Task F
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
ISlide111
Schedule Formats
…with multiple versions and combinations of those two basic formats to combine information or to provide a simpler presentation:
Combines Network and Gantt Chart together
Simplifies a Gantt Chart to just the key Milestones
Linked Gantt Chart
Milestone Chart
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Task A
Task B
Task C
Task D
Task E
Task FSlide112
Schedule Formats
…or to compare or present different information:
Depicts % completion of task
Shows Latest Plan versus Baseline Plan
Tracking Gantt Chart
Baseline Gantt ChartSlide113
What’s The Best
Schedule Format?The best
format is the one that people will use. If your team doesn't understand and own the schedule themselves, it is less useful.You may have different versions of schedules for different audiences: yourself, the project team, upper management, or customers.
What level of detail is needed?Is time or task dependencies more important to show? There are lots of suitable formats, and none are necessarily the best: MS ProjectExcelA paper Wall Chart
A high-level PowerPoint timeline with symbolsA poster listing Key Dates for the entire project… and many more.Slide114
How do we get to actual dates?
Even at this point in the process of developing our schedule, we haven’t actually established any dates – we just have tasks with durations and dependences.
Now that we have a Gantt Chart, we can see what calendar dates are established as a result of the durations and dependencies.BUT… What if our schedule doesn’t match the expected project timing?
Customer/ Management expected completion date
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Task A
Task B
Task C
Task D
Task E
Task F
“Calculated” completion dateSlide115
Should I just create my schedule going backwards from the customer expected end date?
Why waste time doing the “forward calculation” we just taught you?The schedule you just made is the team telling you what they REALLY think it will take. This is valuable information!
You also identify the Critical Path!If you see you have a gap against the customer expectations, you need to systematically evaluate options to accelerate the schedule.Slide116
I have a gap - What a
re my options?
If you have a schedule gap, you can:Change the way we do a task (Affect Schedule)
Deliver less and drop the task (Affect Plan)Get more resources (Affect Resources)EXAMPLES:Use an analytical model instead of a hardware test
Remove half of the customer featuresHire a contractorSlide117
Definition/Purpose Of Managing Resources
Resource management is identifying and tracking the resources necessary to deliver a project. Resources include:
People (including cross functional resources, by skill type)Money (budget, including development expense and capital)
Things (including equipment, facilities, fuel, etc.)No project can progress without resources. Resources are the fuel of the project. Without adequate resources a project will “run out of gas”.Resource planning is the only way to make sure that you will really get the
resources you need. Your project will still get some
resources, but probably not enough, not the right ones, and not at the right time.Slide118
RACI
R = ResponsibleExecutes the task. Does the work.
A = AccountableAccountable for the task. On the hook for it to get done.
C = ConsultedHas input to the task. Could be an expert resource. (2-way flow of information)
I = InformedInformed of task progress. (1-way flow of information)Slide119
RACI Example
The Gantt chart we just made
can serve as the basis for the RACI
Use specific names, not just departmentsSlide120
Managing Resources: More Tools!
What is everybody’s role?
RACI DiagramWhen do we need what?
Resource PlanAre there resource limits? Resource LevelingHow much is it all going to cost?
BudgetingHow do I obtain the resources?
ContractingHow are we doing against plan? Metrics
To be considered for future “advanced” project management courses.Slide121
RACI Exercise Slide122
122
MANAGING RISK
7
NOTEBOOK
SECTIONSlide123
A3 TEMPLATE
Where are you now?
What are the current conditions?
What are the symptoms?
What impact is it having?
Who is involved in the work?
What is the problem?
Why is this a problem?
What measurement are you using to know the problem?
Does the data show this is actually a problem?
Where do you want to be?
What is the target you want to achieve?
What is your goal for improvement?
Consider both long-term and short-term targets.
What is preventing you from getting there?
What are the root causes?
Where will you focus your work?
What is within your sphere of influence and control to accomplish?
What will you work on?
How will you know it is working?
Be specific about the steps you will take, and identify what specific data you will collect to measure the impact of your intervention.
What happened?
What were your results?
Collect data quickly to test your theory about the problem.
Use your data to Adapt, Adopt, or Abandon.
Did everything go according to plan?
What did you learn?
Based on what you learned, what will you do next?Slide124
Risk management is
identifying and prioritizing program risks and mitigating those risks by establishing and tracking countermeasures.
It is far too easy for a project team to reach the end of the planning stage and “forget” or “ignore” or just hurry past their instincts that tell them where something could go wrong.
The Nine-Box and the Project FMEA (Failure Mode Effects Analysis) are both excellent tools for risk management. Today we will focus on the Nine-Box.
Make the
InvisibleVisible!
Definition/Purpose Of Managing RiskSlide125
Elements Of Managing Risk
Define risks (Brainstorm)
Prioritize
Define countermeasuresDocument/integrate countermeasuresSlide126
Elements Of Managing Risk
Brainstorm
Prioritize
Define countermeasuresDocument/integrate countermeasures
9-BoxSlide127
9-Box
Note that “Likelihood” is a combination of capability to detect/respond to the issue, and the likelihood of occurrenceSlide128
9-Box Tips
Don’t try to do this by yourself! As with the other tools, it is critical to get team participation and input.Don’t make the list too long!
Let the brainstorming flow as long as needed, but recognize that once you are done with the 9-box you’ll need to focus on probably no more than about 10 risks.Don’t get “stuck” arguing – keep it moving! If the team can’t agree on the priority, always take the highest priority or worst capability, and highlight it and go back to it before you are done.
Know your team’s risk sensitivity. Some teams think they are OK, and they need these tools to simply IDENTIFY the risks. BUT, some teams are so overwhelmed with worries, that they need these tools to PRIORITIZE which ones to address.Ask “Why” if the risk is too generic. Get more specifics if the risk is something like “Not enough resources”. Which resources? When?Slide129
9-Box Exercise Slide130
Elements Of Managing Risk
Brainstorm
PrioritizeDefine countermeasures
Document/integrate countermeasuresUpdated
A3!Slide131
Countermeasures
If you can’t:avoid a risk (remove irrelevant work) and/or
transfer the risk to someone else (currency hedging, insurance) … then you must mitigate it with countermeasures.
To establish countermeasures:Get ideas from your team (yes, brainstorming again!)Evaluate each idea for its impact on the projectSelect the best option(s)Define the owner and timing for each countermeasure
Document your key risks/countermeasures in your ContractSlide132
Prerequisites For Risk Assessment
You can’t do a risk assessment unless you have a pretty robust A3.
Without clear plan, schedule and resources, during the risk assessment different team members will make different assumptions and a real area of risk might be missed.
NO TBD’s should be left on your plan!!! Write down SOME assumption before doing the Risk AssessmentSlide133
Tips On Countermeasures
The point of risk assessment is PROACTIVE countermeasures. Check yourself: You’re wasting your time if the risk assessment hasn’t changed your plan (unless you have a perfect project!).
Do not maintain a separate “Countermeasures Plan”, the countermeasures must become a part of your project plan.
This is an ongoing exercise. Managing risk is a step in creating your plan, but it isn’t the only time you should be doing it. This is NOT a product/design FMEA. A PRODUCT (or design) FMEA focuses on how the end product might fail once in use by the end-user, and it results in a change to the design or test plans. A PROJECT FMEA focuses on how the project contract might fail during the life of the project, and it results in a change to the contract triangle.Slide134
134
MANAGING CHANGE/SUSTAINABILITY
8
NOTEBOOK
SECTIONSlide135
A3 TEMPLATE
Where are you now?
What are the current conditions?
What are the symptoms?
What impact is it having?
Who is involved in the work?
What is the problem?
Why is this a problem?
What measurement are you using to know the problem?
Does the data show this is actually a problem?
Where do you want to be?
What is the target you want to achieve?
What is your goal for improvement?
Consider both long-term and short-term targets.
What is preventing you from getting there?
What are the root causes?
Where will you focus your work?
What is within your sphere of influence and control to accomplish?
What will you work on?
How will you know it is working?
Be specific about the steps you will take, and identify what specific data you will collect to measure the impact of your intervention.
What happened?
What were your results?
Collect data quickly to test your theory about the problem.
Use your data to Adapt, Adopt, or Abandon.
Did everything go according to plan?
What did you learn?
Based on what you learned, what will you do next?Slide136
Introduce tools for sustainability of improvements:
Identify causes of failureFailsafe techniques to prevent recurrence
Control plans to sustain improvementStandardization across the business
ObjectivesSlide137
Connecting to FMEA and Control P
lan
After we identify and verify failure cause(s)Update FMEA (review changes and rescore RPN)
Review and revise Control Plan
FMEA
Control PlanSlide138
What is failsafe?
A failsafe is a means of incorporating some feature for automatically counteracting the effect of a potential failureSlide139
A,B, & C fix explanation scenario
The Problem: Automobiles are crossing the train tracks and getting hit by a train.
The “C” fix: Detection increased but not adequate.A quick, easy fix that raises attention but does little to deter operator from crossing tracks.
Risk in FMEA is better but RPN is still too high as Detection increases but Prevention is not addressed adequately.Place flashing cross signs at the crossing to alert vehicles. Dilemma: Vehicles are alerted of oncoming trains but can still cross. Problem not solved.Slide140
8 of 40
ABC fix explanation scenario
“B” fix
: Better prevention than “C” fix. Use crossing gates to further deter crossing of vehicles. Dilemma: Vehicles are alerted and have limited crossing ability; however does not prevent those who arbitrarily want to cross. Problem deterred but
not solved. Detection better than “C” but does not prevent operator bypassing the system. FMEA risk is lower than with “C” but still not acceptable (RPN is still too high)
“A” fix: Improved prevention. Solution is failsafe.Train overpass allows trains and autos to pass without incident. Dilemma
: None.
Problem is solved
.
Prevention risk is greatly improved: operator prevented from coming into contact with train.
Risk is lowered to acceptable RPN value. Go to next highest risk in FMEA and address the next issueSlide141
Objectives
Introduce basic concepts of tools:
Identify causes of failureFailsafe techniques
Control plansStandardizationSlide142
What is a control plan?
Documented plan for maintaining improvements
Documents critical elements to sustain improvementsControls for key process inputs and outputs (from your maps!)
Prevents recurrence of failures, if well written & followed.Tool to provide guidance to…Address issues identified during improvement effortDefine actions required to maintain improvement
Mitigate identified risksIt is not just a form or “check the box” exercise!Slide143
Importance to Customer
Control plan ensures our process output consistently meets the customers’ requirements EVERY
TIME!Customers expect us to control our processes to ensure quality
CustomerRequirements
Drive
Process
Characteristics
Drive
Process
Capability
Drive
Control
PlanSlide144
Factors Impacting a
Good Control P
lanSeveral factors need considered in a Control Plan
Initial & Risk AnalysesFMEAProcess MapsRequirements
9-BoxDocumented Procedures
SOPTraining MaterialsReview and Update as requiredSlide145
Questions for Control Plan E
valuation
Key Process Input & Output VariablesHow are they monitored/verified?
How much variation is there around the target value?What causes the variation?Uncontrollable inputsWhat are they?
Do we know how to compensate for changes in them?How robust is the system to uncontrollable inputs?
FMEA or 9-Box On your FMEA, have we recalculate RPN based on improvements?Have we established recommended actions, based on the risks found?Slide146
Questions for Control P
lan Evaluation (cont.)
Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs)
Do they exist?Are they understood and being followed?Measurement proceduresWhat needs to be measured?What equipment/process is needed for measurement
? What is the measurement capability?
Are measurement intervals documented?Slide147
Control Plan E
xample
A control plan is necessary to sustain improvementsInputs for control plan typically come from the FMEAWorks with all types of projectsSlide148
Control Plan Exercise Slide149
Objectives
Introduce basic concepts of tools:Identify causes
of failureFailsafe techniques
Control plansStandardizationSlide150
Standardizing =
Keep
P
rocess
in
Control
Too
little standardization
Too much standardization
The right amount of standardization
Everyone does their own thing
Frustration
, fighting the system
Everybody
does things the same way across the businessSlide151
Approaches to Standardization
The main method of Standardization is documentation
:Written procedures (Engineering Standard Work, Standard Operating Procedures, etc.)
Videos Visual standards (e.g. Illustrated Worksheets, Pictures, Master Sample Parts, etc.)Other Methods of Standardization include:TrainingMistake-Proofing
Review current standards for writing proceduresFollow Cummins standards
Write Smart! (Seek offline training and/or help from others)Slide152
Attributes of Quality D
ocumentation
Accurate & consistent information correctly reflects the process
Documentation needs to be accessible and easy to followRevision control and management is criticalCompliance with Standards and RegulationsAdheres to current standard practices (e.g. GAAP, NIST, ASTM, etc.)
Complies to applicable regulations (e.g. EPA, OSHA, etc.)Visible and straightforward accountability
Objectives stated clearly Easy to determine if objectives are being achievedSlide153
Sustainability Exercise – Fun with Planes!
Each
team send one member out of the room (this team member represents your new employee
).Design a paper airplane which can fly from starting line to hangar.Document the process of building an airplane for the new employee.
Have new employee come back into the room, and silently produce an airplane using only the provided documentation (no verbal communication).
Each new employee will attempt to launch the newly designed plane.Team will present their documentation results.Slide154
Sustain Improvements
Recent studies suggest nearly
60% of all initiatives and projects fail to yield the desired results*Failure is not an option: Our project efforts have been structured so we will not fail
As Project Managers, it is up to us to establish process control and ensure the success of our projects!
Most process improvement
initiatives fall short of goals.
* Where Process-Improvement Projects Go Wrong. by Satya S.
Chakravorty
. WSJ. January 25, 2010Slide155
Next Steps/Opportunities for Support
Workshop Evaluation/Feedback
155
CLOSE OUTSlide156
Together We
C
AN
.Cummins.comACYI.org
156
Thank You!