In preparing this research, we did not take into
Author : phoebe-click | Published Date : 2025-06-27
Description: In preparing this research we did not take into account the investment objectives financial situation and particular needs of the reader Before making an investment decision on the basis of this research the reader needs to consider
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Transcript:In preparing this research, we did not take into:
In preparing this research, we did not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of the reader. Before making an investment decision on the basis of this research, the reader needs to consider, with or without the assistance of an adviser, whether the advice is appropriate in light of their particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances. Please see disclaimer. Palm oil price outlook China International Oils and Oilseeds Conference 2014 Sunaina Dhanuka Macquarie Capital Securities (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd +603 20598993 sunaina.dhanuka@macquarie.com 6th November 2014 Summary of edible oils market last year Each of the Big-4 veg oils added inventory during 2013/14 Change in inventory mt 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 - -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 Source: Macquarie Research, October 2014 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 Soy oil Palm oil Rapeseed oil Sunseed oil Page 10 Summary of edible oils market last year Just to give you an idea of rising palm oil inventories in Indonesia… YoY increase in inventories of some of the Indonesian CPO producers Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, October 2014 18% -13% -13% -23% -41% 100% 67% 137% 33% -35% -57% -66% 11% 7% -29% -9% -8% -5% 32% -100% -50% 0% 50% 150% 1Q2013 2Q2013 Company A (integrated midstream) 3Q2013 4Q2013 Company B - pure CPO producer 1Q2014 2Q2014 Company C (integrated downstream) Page 10 Summary of edible oils market last year Not only did the veg oils inventory rise, oilseeds inventory recovered as well, suggesting edible oils crush could stay high in 2014/15 Stock-to-usage ratios Source: USDA, Macquarie Research, October 2014 12.8% 11.0% 9.1% 7.8% 11.3% 25.6% 27.9% 20.8% 21.9% 24.5% 5.0% 0.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 Rapeseed Soybeans Page 10 Summary of edible oils market last year Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, October 2014 4-way ‘fight for demand’ narrowed spreads significantly Veg oil prices (Rotterdam) US$/t 1,350 1,250 1,150 1,050 950 850 750 650 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Sun oil Rape oil Soy oil Palm oil Page 10 Let’s look at supply for 2014/15… Small increase in rapeseed oil production, stagnation in sun oil production Rapeseed oil production Sunseed oil production Source: Oil World, Macquarie Research, October 2014 Source: Oil World, Macquarie Research, October 2014 19.6 21.4 23.8 23.7 24.4 25.1 26.2 26.8 mt 28.0
