PPT-Chapter 11 Simulation Models

Introduction In the previous chapter we introduced most of the important concepts for developing and analyzing spreadsheet simulation models We also discussed many of the features available in . Linear models are easier to understand than nonlinear models and are necessary for most contro l system design methods brPage 2br Single Variable Example A general single variable nonlinear model The function can be approximated by a Taylor seri Advantages and Disadvantages of Simulation Easy to build the model Can handle otherwise intractable problems Not subject to so many assumptions Easy for decision maker to understand Cheap and saf Sherman Robinson. International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI. ). Outline. Simulation models: . Types. issues. design. Implementation. Impact model. CGE models . Estimation and validation. 2. Using Modeling and Simulation for. System . Level Analysis and Design. Prof. Dr. Fran. çois E. Cellier. Computer Science Department. ETH Zurich. Switzerland. Acknowledgments. Dr. Ernesto . Kofman. (National University of Rosario, Argentina) is the originator of the . Dr. . Feng Gu. Weather Prediction Example. Possible models to predict the weather tomorrow. . 1. Mystery-based models . (e.g., whenever my right eyelid twitches, it is going to rain tomorrow) . Konstantinos Theodorakos. January 2015. Modern Processor Design. “Free lunch is over”. Lower Power consumption is favored on multi-core/processor architectures. CBD Parallelization . intention. Why Parallelize CBD models?. Tom Creasey, PE, PhD. September 9, 2015. Models: Keeping the Horse before the Cart. “If all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.”. Paraphrased from. The Psychology of Science. Abraham Maslow, 1966. Simulation can be used to analyze a . wide variety . of problems.. The applications can . be grouped into four general . areas:. Operations models. Financial models. Marketing models. Games of chance. for ROK-US Combined . exercises . Korea Institute for Defense Analyses. 2016. . 11. Two combined/joint CAX. ROK-US . Combined/Joint exercises . (1/2). Exercises. Audience, Objective and Method. UFG. ROK-US combined military and ROK government. Reproducibility. MIASE Definition. 1. Repeatability. The closeness between independent simulations performed with the same methods on identical models with the . same experimental setup.. Reproducibility.  . With Bayesian conditional density estimation. Problem. Analytic expressions for likelihood of parameters is not available with simulation based models. Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC). Provides likelihood free inference. Simulation Models 16 Introduction Simulation can be used to analyze a wide variety of problems. The applications can be grouped into four general areas: Operations models Financial models Marketing models utlineutline . . efinition of Efficiency efinition of Efficiency actors that actors that ender current MC codes fast enough for clinical render current MC codes fast enough for clinical reatment pl Sherman Robinson. International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI. ). Outline. Simulation models: . Types. issues. design. Implementation. Impact model. CGE models . Estimation and validation. 2.