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Food  Security  to  2040 Food  Security  to  2040

Food Security to 2040 - PowerPoint Presentation

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Food Security to 2040 - PPT Presentation

Whats coming down the track John Ingram Food Systems Programme Leader Environmental Change Institute University of Oxford Food security exists when all people at all times have ID: 792401

amp food security billion food amp billion security cals system access people sufficient systems population world dietary production planetary

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Slide1

Food Security to 2040What’s coming down the track?

John IngramFood Systems Programme LeaderEnvironmental Change InstituteUniversity of Oxford

Slide2

Food security…

... exists when all people, at all times, have physical, economic and social access

to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.(UN-FAO World Food Summit 1996, 2012)… is universally applicable

… is more than food production… is underpinned by food

systems

Slide3

Food Systems include a set of ‘Activities’ …

Slide4

Food Security, i.e. stability over time for:

FOOD UTILISATION

FOOD

ACCESS

Affordability

AllocationPreference

Nutritional Value

Social Value

Food Safety

FOOD

AVAILABILITY

Production

Distribution

Exchange

‘Outcomes’ of which underpin food security

“… exists

when all people, at all times, have

physical, economic and social access

to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life

.”

Slide5

Other ‘Outcomes’ of food system Activities contribute to crossing Planetary Boundaries

Slide6

Example contributions of FSAs to PBs

Producing foodProcessing & Packaging foodDistributing & Retailing food

Consuming foodClimate change

N cycle

P cycle

Fresh water use

Biodiversity loss

Atmos.

aerosols

Chemical pollution

Food System Activities and Planetary Boundaries

Slide7

Example contributions of FSAs to PBs

Producing foodProcessing & Packaging foodDistributing & Retailing food

Consuming foodClimate change

GHGs, albedoFactory emissions

Emissions from transport and cold chainGHGs

from cookingN cycleEutrophic

n

, GHGs

Factory effluent

NOx

from

transport

Waste

P cycle

P reserves

Detergents

Waste

Fresh water use

Irrigation

Washing, heating, cooling

Cleaning food

Cooking,

cleaning

Biodiversity loss

Deforestation, soils

, fishing

Paper/card

Metal mining

Invasive

spp

Consumer choices

Atmos.

aerosols

Dust

Shipping

Smoke from cooking

Chemical pollution

Pesticides

Factory effluent

Transport emissions

Cooking

, c

leaning

Food System Activities and Planetary Boundaries

Slide8

?

Food Security, i.e. stability over time for:

FOOD UTILISATION

FOOD

ACCESS

FOOD

AVAILABILITY

Production

How do changes in Climate and other Planetary Boundaries affect Food Security?

Slide9

?

Food Security, i.e.

stability over time for:

FOOD UTILISATION

FOOD

ACCESS

Affordability

Allocation

Preference

Nutritional Value

Social Value

Food Safety

FOOD

AVAILABILITY

Production

Distribution

Exchange

How do changes in Climate and other Planetary Boundaries affect Food Security?

Slide10

Weather-induced price spikes affect affordability

Poor people tend to spend relatively more of their income on food, therefore suffer more when food prices go upCost of wheat is 5% of cost of loaf of bread in UK, but 90% cost of chapati

in India

Slide11

Extreme weather also impacts food storage …

Slide12

… and

food

distribution …

Slide13

Mycotoxins formed on plant products in the field or during storageResidues of pesticides in plant products affected by changes in managing increased pest pressure

Marine biotoxins in seafood following production of phycotoxins by harmful algal bloomsPathogenic bacteria in foods during heat

waves.… and food safety.

Miraglia et al.,

Food and Chemical Toxicology, 2009

Slide14

Background

Planetary Boundary concerns are clear

But what’s coming down the track for food security?

Slide15

http://faostat3.fao.org

Prevalence of undernourishment

% of world population

Slide16

However, …

~ 1 billion people still hungry

Asia & Pac

~ 525m

SSA

~ 225m

Developed

~ 15m

LAC

~ 40m

Slide17

“Vitamin

D

deficiency:thought to affectat least half the UK’s

white population, up to 90% of themulti-ethnic population

and a quarter of children”(Dec, 2012)

~ 2 billion people suffer from

Vit

A, Fe, I, Zn

and other micronutrient deficiencies: “Hidden Hunger”

Slide18

And food systems are also ‘failing’a further ~2.5 billion of us!

Ng,

2014;

AINW, 2014; Public Health England,

2014; Xi et al, 2013

Global: 33% of all adults are overweight or obese.

Australia

:

60% of

all adults are overweight or obese.

England:

19%

of

Yr

6 children

obese & 14% overweight.

Shanghai:

Over

200,000 (14%) children are obese

Slide19

Different, overlapping forms of malnutrition:the ‘new normal

’“Nearly every country in the world experiences some form of malnutrition, and no country can take good nutrition for

granted.”

International Food Policy Research

Institute,

2014.

Slide20

Sufficient calsInsufficient nutrscurrently ~ 2 billion

Sufficient calsSufficient nutrscurrently ~ 3 billion

Excess cals (incl. some with insufficient nutrs)currently >2.5 billion

Insufficient

calsInsufficient nutrscurrently ~

1 billion

Food security…

... exists when all people, at all times, have physical, economic and social access to

sufficient

, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life

.

Slide21

‘Post-farm gate’ Food System Activities

processing, packaging, trading, shipping, storing, advertising, retailing, …=> Final Cals/Nutrient Quantity

and Price at shop

Productivity Diversity & Quality

Local, Regional & Global Production Activitiesfarming, horticulture, livestock raising, aquaculture, fishing, …

=> Basic

Cals

/

Nutrient Quantity and Price at farm

Constraints on dietary choice and diversity

a

ffordability, preference, allocation, cooking skill, convenience, cultural norms, …

=>

Consumption by Sub-populations

Sufficient

cals

Insufficient

nutrs

c

urrently ~ 2 billion

Sufficient

cals

S

ufficient

nutrs

c

urrently ~ 3 billion

Goal: Sustainable Food and Nutrition Security

Excess

cals

(incl. some with

i

nsufficient

nutrs

)

c

urrently

>

2.5 billion

CONSUMERS

PRODUCERS

Insufficient

cals

Insufficient

nutrs

c

urrently ~

1

billion

FOOD CHAIN ACTORS

Social, Political, Business, and Biophysical Environments

Slide22

World population, 1950-2100, according to different projections and variants

World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision.2013: 7.2 billion

2025: 8.1 billion2050: 9.6 billion2100: 10.9 billionNearly 1 billion more in next 12 years!

Slide23

Looking ahead

$6,000 – $30,000

Slide24

Dietary energy supply increases

as incomes rise …

Slide25

… leading to increases in consumption.(kcal/person/day)

Slide26

Looking ahead ...

“unless trends are curbed, half the global adult population will be overweight in 15 years time”

Slide27

1

2250

- Too much -

-- Too little --

Billions of people

----- Appropriate amount -----

(indicative; not

to

scale)

2

3

4

5

7

6

8

10

9

2040

2015

2025

kcal/person/day consumption

------ Too much ------

--- Too little ---

---- Appropriate amount ----

----------- Too much ------------

----- Too little -----

--- Appropriate amount ---

Too much

-- Too little --

---- Appropriate ----

2000

The environmental consequences of meeting this demand with current food systems and consumption trends are dire

Impacts on non-communicable diseases (e.g. CVD, Type 2 Diabetes) will be massive

Calorie consumption

Annual UK NHS spend on

diabetes

alone increases

from

£10b

to £

17b over

the next 25 years

Slide28

Environmental Change

will clearly affect food security

Slide29

But how will this interact with

Socioeconomic

Change?

Slide30

DRIVER

Interactions

Socioeconomic

DRIVERS

Changes in:

Demographics, Economics,Socio-political context, Cultural contextScience & Technology

Environmental

DRIVERS

Changes in:

Land cover & soils, Atmospheric

Comp., Climate variability & means,

Water availability & quality,

Nutrient availability & cycling,

Biodiversity,

Sea

level

‘Natural’

DRIVERS

e.g. Volcanoes

Solar cycles

Environmental feedbacks

e.g. water quality,

GHGs, biodiversity

Socioeconomic feedbacks

e.g.

nutrition, business, political stability

Food

Utilisation

Food

Access

Food

Availability

Food Security

Need to consider drivers and feedbacks for food system ‘sustainability

anlayses

Slide31

Classic ConceptFood System ConceptSocialNutritional

EnvironmentalEnvironmentalEconomicEnterprise

Sustainability Metrics for Food Systems

“Sustainable”

“Environmental” (only)

 

Slide32

‘Post-farm gate’ Food System Activitiesprocessing, packaging, trading, shipping, storing, advertising, retailing, …=> Final

Cals/Nutrient Quantity and Price at shop

Productivity

Diversity & Quality

Local, Regional & Global Production Activitiesfarming, horticulture, livestock raising, aquaculture, fishing, …

=> Basic Cals/Nutrient Quantity and Price at farm

PRODUCERS

FOOD CHAIN ACTORS

Goal:

Sustainable

Food and Nutrition Security

Hypothesis: % weighting put on sustainability metrics depends on ‘position’ in food system and world view.

Constraints on dietary choice and diversity

affordability, preference, allocation, cooking skill, convenience, cultural norms, …

=>

Consumption by Sub-populations

CONSUMERS

Slide33

?