Whats coming down the track John Ingram Food Systems Programme Leader Environmental Change Institute University of Oxford Food security exists when all people at all times have ID: 792401
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Slide1
Food Security to 2040What’s coming down the track?
John IngramFood Systems Programme LeaderEnvironmental Change InstituteUniversity of Oxford
Slide2Food security…
... exists when all people, at all times, have physical, economic and social access
to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.(UN-FAO World Food Summit 1996, 2012)… is universally applicable
… is more than food production… is underpinned by food
systems
Slide3Food Systems include a set of ‘Activities’ …
Slide4Food Security, i.e. stability over time for:
FOOD UTILISATION
FOOD
ACCESS
Affordability
AllocationPreference
Nutritional Value
Social Value
Food Safety
FOOD
AVAILABILITY
Production
Distribution
Exchange
…
‘Outcomes’ of which underpin food security
“… exists
when all people, at all times, have
physical, economic and social access
to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life
.”
Slide5Other ‘Outcomes’ of food system Activities contribute to crossing Planetary Boundaries
Slide6Example contributions of FSAs to PBs
Producing foodProcessing & Packaging foodDistributing & Retailing food
Consuming foodClimate change
N cycle
P cycle
Fresh water use
Biodiversity loss
Atmos.
aerosols
Chemical pollution
Food System Activities and Planetary Boundaries
Slide7Example contributions of FSAs to PBs
Producing foodProcessing & Packaging foodDistributing & Retailing food
Consuming foodClimate change
GHGs, albedoFactory emissions
Emissions from transport and cold chainGHGs
from cookingN cycleEutrophic
n
, GHGs
Factory effluent
NOx
from
transport
Waste
P cycle
P reserves
Detergents
Waste
Fresh water use
Irrigation
Washing, heating, cooling
Cleaning food
Cooking,
cleaning
Biodiversity loss
Deforestation, soils
, fishing
Paper/card
Metal mining
Invasive
spp
Consumer choices
Atmos.
aerosols
Dust
Shipping
Smoke from cooking
Chemical pollution
Pesticides
Factory effluent
Transport emissions
Cooking
, c
leaning
Food System Activities and Planetary Boundaries
Slide8?
Food Security, i.e. stability over time for:
FOOD UTILISATION
FOOD
ACCESS
FOOD
AVAILABILITY
Production
How do changes in Climate and other Planetary Boundaries affect Food Security?
Slide9?
Food Security, i.e.
stability over time for:
FOOD UTILISATION
FOOD
ACCESS
Affordability
Allocation
Preference
Nutritional Value
Social Value
Food Safety
FOOD
AVAILABILITY
Production
Distribution
Exchange
How do changes in Climate and other Planetary Boundaries affect Food Security?
Slide10Weather-induced price spikes affect affordability
Poor people tend to spend relatively more of their income on food, therefore suffer more when food prices go upCost of wheat is 5% of cost of loaf of bread in UK, but 90% cost of chapati
in India
Slide11Extreme weather also impacts food storage …
Slide12… and
food
distribution …
Slide13Mycotoxins formed on plant products in the field or during storageResidues of pesticides in plant products affected by changes in managing increased pest pressure
Marine biotoxins in seafood following production of phycotoxins by harmful algal bloomsPathogenic bacteria in foods during heat
waves.… and food safety.
Miraglia et al.,
Food and Chemical Toxicology, 2009
Slide14Background
Planetary Boundary concerns are clear
But what’s coming down the track for food security?
Slide15http://faostat3.fao.org
Prevalence of undernourishment
% of world population
Slide16However, …
~ 1 billion people still hungry
Asia & Pac
~ 525m
SSA
~ 225m
Developed
~ 15m
LAC
~ 40m
Slide17“Vitamin
D
deficiency:thought to affectat least half the UK’s
white population, up to 90% of themulti-ethnic population
and a quarter of children”(Dec, 2012)
~ 2 billion people suffer from
Vit
A, Fe, I, Zn
and other micronutrient deficiencies: “Hidden Hunger”
Slide18And food systems are also ‘failing’a further ~2.5 billion of us!
Ng,
2014;
AINW, 2014; Public Health England,
2014; Xi et al, 2013
Global: 33% of all adults are overweight or obese.
Australia
:
60% of
all adults are overweight or obese.
England:
19%
of
Yr
6 children
obese & 14% overweight.
Shanghai:
Over
200,000 (14%) children are obese
Slide19Different, overlapping forms of malnutrition:the ‘new normal
’“Nearly every country in the world experiences some form of malnutrition, and no country can take good nutrition for
granted.”
International Food Policy Research
Institute,
2014.
Slide20Sufficient calsInsufficient nutrscurrently ~ 2 billion
Sufficient calsSufficient nutrscurrently ~ 3 billion
Excess cals (incl. some with insufficient nutrs)currently >2.5 billion
Insufficient
calsInsufficient nutrscurrently ~
1 billion
Food security…
... exists when all people, at all times, have physical, economic and social access to
sufficient
, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life
.
Slide21‘Post-farm gate’ Food System Activities
processing, packaging, trading, shipping, storing, advertising, retailing, …=> Final Cals/Nutrient Quantity
and Price at shop
Productivity Diversity & Quality
Local, Regional & Global Production Activitiesfarming, horticulture, livestock raising, aquaculture, fishing, …
=> Basic
Cals
/
Nutrient Quantity and Price at farm
Constraints on dietary choice and diversity
a
ffordability, preference, allocation, cooking skill, convenience, cultural norms, …
=>
Consumption by Sub-populations
Sufficient
cals
Insufficient
nutrs
c
urrently ~ 2 billion
Sufficient
cals
S
ufficient
nutrs
c
urrently ~ 3 billion
Goal: Sustainable Food and Nutrition Security
Excess
cals
(incl. some with
i
nsufficient
nutrs
)
c
urrently
>
2.5 billion
CONSUMERS
PRODUCERS
Insufficient
cals
Insufficient
nutrs
c
urrently ~
1
billion
FOOD CHAIN ACTORS
Social, Political, Business, and Biophysical Environments
Slide22World population, 1950-2100, according to different projections and variants
World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision.2013: 7.2 billion
2025: 8.1 billion2050: 9.6 billion2100: 10.9 billionNearly 1 billion more in next 12 years!
Slide23Looking ahead
$6,000 – $30,000
Slide24Dietary energy supply increases
as incomes rise …
Slide25… leading to increases in consumption.(kcal/person/day)
Slide26Looking ahead ...
“unless trends are curbed, half the global adult population will be overweight in 15 years time”
Slide271
2250
- Too much -
-- Too little --
Billions of people
----- Appropriate amount -----
(indicative; not
to
scale)
2
3
4
5
7
6
8
10
9
2040
2015
2025
kcal/person/day consumption
------ Too much ------
--- Too little ---
---- Appropriate amount ----
----------- Too much ------------
----- Too little -----
--- Appropriate amount ---
Too much
-- Too little --
---- Appropriate ----
2000
The environmental consequences of meeting this demand with current food systems and consumption trends are dire
Impacts on non-communicable diseases (e.g. CVD, Type 2 Diabetes) will be massive
Calorie consumption
Annual UK NHS spend on
diabetes
alone increases
from
£10b
to £
17b over
the next 25 years
Slide28Environmental Change
will clearly affect food security
Slide29But how will this interact with
Socioeconomic
Change?
Slide30DRIVER
Interactions
Socioeconomic
DRIVERS
Changes in:
Demographics, Economics,Socio-political context, Cultural contextScience & Technology
Environmental
DRIVERS
Changes in:
Land cover & soils, Atmospheric
Comp., Climate variability & means,
Water availability & quality,
Nutrient availability & cycling,
Biodiversity,
Sea
level
‘Natural’
DRIVERS
e.g. Volcanoes
Solar cycles
Environmental feedbacks
e.g. water quality,
GHGs, biodiversity
Socioeconomic feedbacks
e.g.
nutrition, business, political stability
Food
Utilisation
Food
Access
Food
Availability
Food Security
Need to consider drivers and feedbacks for food system ‘sustainability
’
anlayses
Slide31Classic ConceptFood System ConceptSocialNutritional
EnvironmentalEnvironmentalEconomicEnterprise
Sustainability Metrics for Food Systems
“Sustainable”
“Environmental” (only)
‘Post-farm gate’ Food System Activitiesprocessing, packaging, trading, shipping, storing, advertising, retailing, …=> Final
Cals/Nutrient Quantity and Price at shop
Productivity
Diversity & Quality
Local, Regional & Global Production Activitiesfarming, horticulture, livestock raising, aquaculture, fishing, …
=> Basic Cals/Nutrient Quantity and Price at farm
PRODUCERS
FOOD CHAIN ACTORS
Goal:
Sustainable
Food and Nutrition Security
Hypothesis: % weighting put on sustainability metrics depends on ‘position’ in food system and world view.
Constraints on dietary choice and diversity
affordability, preference, allocation, cooking skill, convenience, cultural norms, …
=>
Consumption by Sub-populations
CONSUMERS
Slide33?