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The Arab Spring The Arab Spring

The Arab Spring - PowerPoint Presentation

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The Arab Spring - PPT Presentation

Understanding the Revolutions of 2011 by Jack O Goldstone The PostIslamist Revolutions by Asef Bayat A political cartoon by Carlos Latuff depicting President of Egypt Hosni Mubarak facing the Tunisian knockon domino effect ID: 440626

sultanistic revolutions tunisia arab revolutions sultanistic arab tunisia government egypt military political revolution 2012 regimes protests 2011 ali national islamist libya groups

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Slide1

The Arab Spring

Understanding

the Revolutions of

2011 by Jack O. Goldstone

The Post-Islamist Revolutions

by

Asef

BayatSlide2

A political cartoon by Carlos Latuff depicting President of Egypt Hosni Mubarak facing the Tunisian knock-on domino effect.Slide3

The Arab Spring

2011 saw dramatic changes in the Arab world’s governance landscape. Unprecedented popular demonstrations in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya led to the overturning of a

half a century

of autocratic rule in North Africa.

Tunisian President

Zine

El

Abidine

Ben Ali fled to Saudi Arabia on 14 January following the Tunisian revolution protests. In Egypt, President Hosni Mubarak resigned on 11 February 2011 after 18 days of massive protests, ending his 30-year presidency. The Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi was overthrown on 23 August 2011, after the National Transitional Council (NTC) took control of

Bab

al-

Azizia

. He was killed on 20 October 2011

.Slide4

The Arab Spring

There has also been civil uprisings in Bahrain, Syria, and Yemen, the latter resulting in the resignation of the Yemeni prime minister; major protests in Algeria, Iraq, Jordan, Morocco, and Oman; and minor protests in Kuwait,

Lebanon, Mauritania, Saudi Arabia, Sudan.

It was sparked by the first protests that occurred in Tunisia on 18 December 2010 following Mohamed

Bouazizi's

burning himself

in protest of police corruption and ill treatment

.Slide5

These

protests, demanding greater political freedom, economic opportunity, and an end to systemic

corruption

, have resonated deeply across

the region,

sparking calls for change throughout the

Arab world (among others in Syria, Bahrain, and Yemen). Slide6

Other

Arab

states

, especially the monarchies, have so far

warded off calls

for change with seeming success,

using

the familiar mix of coercion, co-option and promises.

However, this does not necessarily mean that they were not affected at all. Slide7

A status report on the Arab awakening (As of July 2011)

Source: The Economist – 14 July 2011Slide8

While

there are major cultural, economic, and geographic differences, the experiences in North Africa are serving as models for the rest of Africa too.

In

the months following the launch of the Arab

Spring, there have been protests in more than a dozen African capitals calling for greater political participation, transparency, and adherence to the rule of law. Slide9

Arab political language is

changing:

“The new slogans are about equitable distribution of wealth, defeating nepotism and corruption, freedom of expression and assembly, all of which are rights meant to restore self-respect and render to people their due sense of dignity.”Slide10

Intro

O

ne

of the remarkable aspects of the prospective democratic transitions in North

Africa

and the Middle East is that it has taken so long.

With

the exception of Central Asia, the Arab

world

is the last major region to start down the democratic path. Slide11

Intro

Since “the third wave” of global democratization (which started in the mid-1970s with the toppling of the dictator of Portugal), dozens of countries with all kinds of authoritarian political systems—monarchies, oligarchies, military dictatorships, one-party regimes—shifted into the

democratic

camp.

As

most of the world was transformed

, however

, one area remained frozen in time: the Arab Middle East.Slide12

Triggers and Drivers

Many of the challenges, frustrations, and unmet aspirations

in the Arab world have

existed for

years.

Why

then is there such agitation for reform now?

In

other words, what has

changed

? Slide13

Triggers and Drivers

Nobody really knows, of course

.

No one thought Tunisia

was on the verge of

an eruption

;

that

the upheaval would spread from

Tunisia

to Egypt; and that the shocks would reverberate around the Middle East. Slide14

The

old regimes themselves were taken aback

by the force and speed of the

uprisings.

Even

traditional

opposition

parties were behind the curve, often remaining

hesitant

well after newer popular protest movements sprang up and

seized the

moment

(with

the help of social media and

communications

technologies that proved to be a new and

powerful

political

tool). Slide15

How did it start?

The uprising began in December 2010, when a fruit vendor, Mohamed

Bouazizi

, set himself on fire in the

town

of

Sidi

Bouzid

(Tunisia)

to protest his lack of opportunity and the disrespect of the police.Slide16

How did it start?

Tunisia, therefore, can be considered as the pioneer of “the

revolutionary

movements

as the Tunisians were the first to break the barrier of fear, which

constituted

the major obstacle in the face of unleashing popular fury and resentment

over

deteriorating economic, social and political conditions which needed only

a

spark to explode forth”.

“The

Tunisian revolution was the catalyst that

instigated

the Egyptian revolt and uprisings in other countries.

Despite

the limited

significance

of Tunisia in the regional Arab system, its role in breaking the

barrier

of fear was of paramount importance, which should not be

underestimated

, and which exceeded Tunisia’s traditional role in the regional

scheme”. Slide17

Triggers and Drivers

Rising food prices

High Unemployment Rate (Especially youth Unemployment)

Frustration with closed, corrupt, unresponsive political systems.

Increasing income inequalitySlide18

Necessary Conditions for a Revolution

For a revolution to succeed, a number of factors have to come

together:

1) The government

must appear so

irremediably (impossible to cure or put right)

unjust

o

r

incompetent

that it is widely viewed as

a

threat to the country's

future. Slide19

Necessary Conditions for a Revolution

2) Elites

(especially in the military) must be alienated

from

the state and no longer willing to defend

it. Slide20

Necessary Conditions for a Revolution

3) A

broad-based section of the

population

, spanning ethnic and religious groups and socioeconomic classes, must

mobilize. Slide21

Necessary Conditions for a Revolution

4)

I

nternational

powers must either refuse to step in to defend the

government

or constrain it from using maximum force to defend itself. Slide22

Necessary Conditions for a Revolution

Revolutions rarely triumph because these conditions rarely coincide.

This is especially the case in traditional monarchies and one-party states, whose leaders often manage to maintain popular support by making appeals to respect for

royal tradition

or

nationalismSlide23

Necessary Conditions for a Revolution

Elites, who are often enriched by such governments, will

only

forsake them if their circumstances or the ideology of the rulers changes

drastically

.Slide24

Necessary Conditions for a Revolution

And in almost all cases, broad-based popular mobilization is difficult to achieve because it requires bridging the different interests of the urban and rural poor, the middle class, students, professionals, and different ethnic or religious groups.

History is full of student movements, workers' strikes, and peasant uprisings that were easily put down because they remained a revolt of one group, rather than of broad coalition’s

Slide25

Necessary Conditions for a Revolution

Finally, other countries have often intervened to save embattled rulers in order to stabilize the international system. (i.e. in support of their opposition to Communists/Iran/ Radical Islamist Groups etc.)

(A Recent Example: Bahrain)Slide26

The Sultanistic

Regimes

Such regimes arise

when a national leader expands his personal power at the expense of formal institutions.

How did the

sultanistic

regimes manage to resist change? Slide27

The Sultanistic

Regimes

Sultanistic

dictators appeal to no ideology and have no purpose other than maintaining their personal authority.

They may preserve some of the formal aspects of democracy - elections, political parties, a national assembly, or a constitution.

However, they rule above them by installing their supporters in key positions and sometimes by declaring states of emergency, which they justify by appealing to fears of external (or internal) enemies. Slide28

The Sultanistic

Regimes

Behind the scenes, such dictators generally accumulate great wealth, which they use to buy the loyalty of supporters and punish opponents.

They also seek relationships with foreign countries, promising

stability

in exchange for aid and investment.Slide29

The Sultanistic

Regimes

The

leaders

control their countries' military elites by keeping them divided.

Typically

, the security forces are separated into several commands (army, air force,

police

, intelligence)

-

each of which reports directly to the leader. Slide30

The Sultanistic

Regimes

To keep the masses depoliticized and unorganized, sultans control elections and political parties and pay their populations off with

subsidies

for key goods, such as electricity, gasoline, and foodstuffs.

When combined with surveillance, media control, and intimidation, these efforts generally ensure that citizens stay disconnected and passive. Slide31

The Sultanistic

Regimes

By following this pattern, politically skillful sultans around the world (

sultanistic

dictatorships are not unique to the Arab world: Mexico, Indonesia and Nicaragua, among others had similar regimes) have managed to accumulate vast wealth and high concentrations of power.

But as the new generation of sultans in the Middle East has discovered, power that is too concentrated can be difficult to hold on to. Slide32

Inherent Vulnerabilities (Essential Weaknesses of

Sultanistic

Dictatorships

Sultans must strike a careful balance between self-enrichment and rewarding the elite:

If the ruler rewards himself and neglects the elite, a key incentive for the elite to support the regime is removed.

Slide33

Inherent Vulnerabilities (Essential Weaknesses of

Sultanistic

Dictatorships

Meanwhile, as the economy grows and education expands, the number of people with higher aspirations and a keener sensitivity to the intrusions of police surveillance and abuse increases. Slide34

Inherent Vulnerabilities (Essential Weaknesses of

Sultanistic

Dictatorships

And if the entire population grows rapidly while the lion's share of economic gains is hoarded by the elite, inequality and unemployment surge as well.Slide35

Inherent Vulnerabilities (Essential Weaknesses of

Sultanistic

Dictatorships

As the costs of subsidies and

other

programs the regime uses to appease citizens rise, keeping the masses

depoliticized

places even more stress on the regime.Slide36

Inherent Vulnerabilities (Essential Weaknesses of

Sultanistic

Dictatorships

If protests start, sultans may

offer

reforms or expand patronage benefits

to

head off escalating public anger.

T

hese concessions are

generally ineffective once people have begun to clamor for ending the sultan's rule

. Slide37

Inherent Vulnerabilities (Essential Weaknesses of

Sultanistic

Dictatorships

By dividing their command structure, the sultan may reduce the threat posed by the security services. But this strategy also makes them more prone to defections in the event of mass protests.

Lack of unity leads to splits within the security services; meanwhile, the fact that the regime is not backed by any appealing ideology or by independent institutions ensures that the military has less motivation to put down protests.Slide38

Inherent Vulnerabilities (Essential Weaknesses of

Sultanistic

Dictatorships

Much of the military may decide that

the country's

interests are better served by regime change.

If

part of the armed forces

defects the government

can unravel with astonishing rapidity.Slide39

The Arab Spring

The revolutions unfolding across the Middle East represent the breakdown of

increasingly

corrupt

sultanistic

regimes.

Although

economies across the region

have

grown in recent years, the gains have bypassed the majority of the population,

being amassed instead by a wealthy few. Slide40

The Arab Spring

Mubarak and his family reportedly built

up

a fortune of between $40 billion and $70 billion, and 39 officials and

businessmen

close

to Mubarak's

son

Gamal

are alleged to have made fortunes

averaging more than $1 billion each.Slide41

The Arab Spring

Fast-growing and urbanizing populations in the Middle East have been hurt by low

wages

and by food prices that rose by 32 percent in the last year alone, according

to

the

UN’s

Food and Agriculture Organization.

But

it is not simply such

rising prices, or a lack of growth, that fuels revolutions; it is the persistence of

widespread

and unrelieved poverty amid increasingly extravagant wealth. Slide42

The Arab Spring

Discontent has also been

strengthened by

high unemployment, which has stemmed in

part

from the

sharp increase in

the Arab world's young population.

Not only is the proportion of young people in the

Middle

East extraordinarily high, but their numbers have grown quickly over a short period of time. Since 1990, youth population aged 15-29 has grown by 50%in

Libya and Tunisia,

65%in

Egypt, and

125%in

Yemen. Slide43

The Arab Spring

Many of these young people have been able to go to university, especially in recent years.

Indeed, college enrollment has soared across the region in recent decades, more than tripling in Tunisia, quadrupling in Egypt, and expanding tenfold in Libya. Slide44

The Arab Spring

In both Tunisia and Egypt, the military had seen its status eclipsed recently.

In both countries military resentments made the military less likely to crack down on mass protests; officers and soldiers would not kill their countrymen just to keep the Ben Ali and Mubarak families and their favorites in power.

A similar defection among factions of the Libyan military led to Qaddafi's rapid loss of large territories. Slide45

Monarchies

The region's monarchies are more likely to retain power. This is not because they face no calls for change. In fact, Morocco, Jordan, Oman, and the Persian Gulf kingdoms face the same demographic, educational, and economic challenges that the

sultanistic

regimes do, and they must reform to meet them.

But the monarchies have one big advantage: Their political structures are flexible.

Modern monarchies can retain considerable executive power while ceding legislative power to elected parliaments.Slide46

Monarchies

I

n

times of unrest, crowds are more likely to protest for legislative change than for abandonment of the monarchy.

This

gives monarchs more room to maneuver to pacify the people. Slide47

After Revolutions

Some Western governments, having long supported Ben Ali and Mubarak as bulwarks against a rising tide of radical Islam, now fear that Islamist groups are poised to take over.

Yet the historical record of revolutions in

sultanistic

regimes should somewhat alleviate such concerns.

Not a single sultan overthrown in the last 30 years has been succeeded by an ideologically driven or radical government.

Rather, in every case, the end product has been a 

flawed

 democracy: often corrupt and prone to authoritarian tendencies, but not aggressive or extremist. Slide48

After Revolutions

This marks a significant shift in world history. Between 1949 and 1979, every revolution against a

sultanistic

regime (in China, Cuba, Vietnam, Cambodia, Iran, and Nicaragua) resulted in a communist or an Islamist government.

Yet since the 1980s, neither the communist nor the Islamist model has had much appeal.

Both are widely perceived as failures at producing economic growth and popular accountability; the two chief goals of all recent anti-

sultanistic

revolutions. Slide49

After Revolutions

The United States and other Western nations have little credibility in the Middle East given their long support for

sultanistic

dictators.

Any efforts to use aid to support certain groups or influence electoral outcomes are likely to arouse suspicionSlide50

After Revolutions: The Role of West

What the revolutionaries need from Westerners is vocal support for the process of democracy, a willingness to accept all groups that play by democratic rules, and a positive response to any requests for technical assistance in institution building. Slide51

After Revolutions: Risks Ahead

The greatest risk that Tunisia and Egypt now face is an attempt at

counterrevolution

by military conservatives, a group that has often sought to claim

power

after a sultan has been removed.Slide52

After Revolutions: Risks Ahead

The other main threat to democracies in the Middle East is

war

.

Historically

,

revolutionary

regimes have hardened and become more radical in response to

international

 conflict. Slide53

After Revolutions:

Egypt

June 2012, Hosni Mubarak was found guilty of complicity in the murders of the protestors and sentenced to life imprisonment

.

24 June

2012

, Islamist Mohammed

Morsi

won the presidential election.

12 August 2012

: President Morsi ousted Egypt's military leadership and assumed legislative powers.Slide54

After Revolutions:

Egypt

12 October 2012

: Critics and supporters of Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi clashed in Cairo's Tahrir Square on 12 October 2012 in a small but potent rally, as liberal and secular activists erupted with anger accusing the Muslim Brotherhood of trying to take over the country.Slide55

After Revolutions:

Egypt

November 2012

: Liberal and secular groups walked out of the constitutional constituent assembly because they believed that it would impose strict Islamic practices, while members of the Muslim Brotherhood supported Morsi.

Protesters battled the police demanding political reforms and the prosecution of officials blamed for killing demonstrators as well as to protest against Morsy and the growing influence of the Muslim Brotherhood.Slide56

After Revolutions:

Egypt

22 November 2012

:

Morsi

issued a constitutional declaration which extended his powers :

“The president is authorised to take any measures he sees fit in order to preserve the revolution, to preserve national unity or to safeguard national security”.

He eventually

rescind

ed

it in the face of popular protests.

Meanwhile a new constitution is drafted which human rights groups and international experts said was full of holes and ambiguities .

 Slide57

After Revolutions:

Egypt

2012

December- Islamist-dominated constituent assembly approve

d

draft constitution that

supported

the role of Islam and restrict

ed

freedom of speech and assembly. Public approve

d

it in a referendum, prompting extensive protest by secular opposition leaders, Christians and women's groups.

In January 2013, m

ore than 50 people are killed during days of violent street protests. The army chief warn

ed

that political strife is pushing the state to the brink of collapse.Slide58

After Revolutions:

Egypt

In February 2013,

h

undreds of police officers in Egypt shut down headquarters of Interior Ministry in at least seven provincial capitals across country in series of protests against what they call political exploitation by government of Pres Mohamed Morsi.

On Mar. 23, 2013, d

ozens of people are injured when thousands of supporters and opponents of Egypt's ruling Muslim Brotherhood clash outside group's Cairo headquarters.Slide59

After Revolutions:

Egypt

On

May. 2, 2013,

Egyptian authorities jail anti-Islamist activist Ahmed Douma on charges that include insulting Pres Mohamed Morsi. (there are various similar incidents).

On May

8, 2013, p

resident Mohamed Morsi swears in nine new cabinet members in reshuffle that increases role of Islamists in upper ranks of government. Slide60

After Revolutions:

Tunisia

The Tunisian military

ousted

Zine El Abidine Ben Ali

on

14

Jan 2011. On

14 January, Ben Ali dissolved his government and declared a state of emergency.

Officials said the reason for the emergency declaration was to protect Tunisians and their property. People were also barred from gathering in groups of more than three, otherwise courting arrest or being shot if they tried to run away. Ben Ali also called for an election within six months to defuse demonstrations aimed at forcing him

out. The

military took control of the airport and closed the country's airspace.Slide61

After Revolutions:

Tunisia

On the same day, Ben Ali fled the country for Malta under Libyan protection and landed in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, after France rejected a request for the plane to land on its territory.

Saudi

Arabia

gave

him

asylum.

On the morning of 15 January, Tunisian state TV announced that Ben Ali had officially resigned his

position.Slide62

After Revolutions:

Tunisia

A commission to reform the constitution and current law in general has been set up .

After

Bin Ali left, gun battles took place near the Presidential Palace between the Tunisian army and elements of security organs loyal to the former regime. The Tunisian army was reportedly struggling to assert control.Slide63

After Revolutions:

Tunisia

On 23 October 2011, Tunisians voted for the first time post-revolution. The election appointed members to a Constituent Assembly charged with rewriting Tunisia's Constitution.

The

formerly-banned Islamic party Ennahda won by capturing 41% of the total vote. Ehnada

rules Tunisia in a “troika” coalition with two center-left parties

.

2011

December - Human rights activist

Moncef

Marzouki

is elected president by the constituent assembly,

Ennahda

leader

Hamadi

Jebali

is sworn in as prime minister.Slide64

After Revolutions:

Tunisia

2012

June - Former president Ben Ali is sentenced to life in prison over the killing of protesters in the 2011 revolution. He is living in Saudi Arabia, which refuses to extradite him.

2012

August - Thousands protest in Tunis against moves by Islamist-led government to reduce women's rights. Draft constitution refers to women as "complementary to men", whereas 1956 constitution granted women full equality with men.Slide65

After Revolutions:

Tunisia

2013

February - Prime Minister

Jebali

resign

ed

after his ruling Islamist

Ennahda

party rejects his proposals to form a government of technocrats after the killing of an opposition anti-Islamist leader.

Since 14 March 2013, the prime minister is

Ali Laarayedh .

He represents the Ennahda

Movement.

Ennahda

, said that the cabinet reshuffle had reduced its share of ministers in the government and that it had yielded control of the ministries of justice, interior and foreign affairs, bowing to a central demand of several opposition parties.

2013 8 March-

Tunisi

a

’s prime minister announced a new cabinet on Friday, handing over key ministries previously headed by members of the ruling Islamist party to independent figures in an effort to calm the worst political crisis since the country’s revolt more than two years ago. Slide66

After Revolutions:

Libya

After violence erupted between Gaddafi and opposition forces in Jan 2011,

same time,

a

multinational coalition launched a large scale air-based

military intervention

to disable the Gaddafi government's military capabilities and enforce the UN Security Council resolution

in March

.

By the end of March, command of the coalition operations had been assumed by

NATO

. Slide67

After Revolutions:

Libya

I

n October

2011

, Gaddafi and several other leading figures in his government were captured and killed in Gaddafi's hometown of Sirte

.

On 23 October 2011, the National Transitional Council officially declared that Libya had been

liberated

.Slide68

After Revolutions:

Libya

On 22 November, the NTC named its interim government

.

On 1 January 2012, the NTC released a 15-page draft law that would regulate the election of a national assembly charged with writing a new constitution and forming a second caretaker government. The proposed law laid out more than 20 classes of people who would be prohibited from standing as candidates in the elections, including Libyans who had ties to Muammar Gaddafi, former officials accused of torturing Libyans or embezzling public funds, active members of the Revolutionary Guard, opposition members who made peace with Gaddafi

.Slide69

After Revolutions:

Libya

The finalization of the election law would be followed by the appointment of an election commission to divide the country into constituencies and oversee the poll, to be held in June.Slide70

After Revolutions:

Libya

On 7 July 2012, Libyans voted in their first parliamentary elections since the end of the dictatorship of Muammar Gaddafi. The election, in which more than 100 political parties have registered,

form

ed

an interim 200-member national assembly.

This

replace

d

the unelected National Transitional Council,

name

d

a prime minister, and

form

ed

a committee to draft a

constitution

.Slide71

After Revolutions:

Libya

2012

August - Transitional government

hand

ed

power to the General National Congress, which was elected in July. The Congress elects Mohammed

Magarief

of the liberal National Front Party as its chairman, thereby making him interim head of state

.

2012

October

-

the

National

Congress

elect

ed

Ali

Zidan

, a liberal and leading opposition envoy during the civil war,

as the prime minister.

The congress is dominated by more liberal-leaning members, but it also has many moderate Islamists and a few

Salafists

(fundamentalists)

. Slide72

After Revolutions:

Libya

2012

November - New government led by Ali

Zidan

is sworn in

.

2013

April - The government continues to struggle to impose its authority on militia groups.

One

military group

briefly abducted Prime Minister

Zidan's

aide Mohamed al-

Ghattous

on the outskirts of Tripoli.