developments since 2010 Crown copyright Met Office Ian Cameron Met Office Executive Head Aviation June 2014 London Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre VAAC Crown copyright Met Office The London VAAC is an International Civil Aviation Organization ICAO designated centre responsible ID: 167392
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Slide1
Volcanic Ash - developments since 2010
© Crown copyright Met Office
Ian Cameron, Met Office Executive Head Aviation,
June 2014Slide2
London Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC)
© Crown copyright Met Office
The London VAAC is an International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) designated centre, responsible for issuing advisories for volcanic eruptions originating in Iceland and the north-eastern corner of the North Atlantic.Slide3
Lessons learned
Too much information – NOTAM/SIGMET/VAA (VA-Advisory/Graphics)Insufficient Volcanic Ash Observations to verify forecasts
What are we forecasting? (leading to new Visible/discernible ash definitions) Need for operators to assume responsibility for safe operation in contaminated airspace
© Crown copyright Met OfficeSlide4
© Crown copyright Met Office
MoU
Steering Group
Volcanic Ash Stakeholder
Mapping
VAAC London, ADAQ &
Observations:
Satellite,
Obs
Programme, OBR
MET OFFICE
ICAO led
IAVWOPSG
IUGG/WMO
VASAG
CAA led
UK VAAG
DfT
led
VAORG
EuroControl
/ECEACCC
Green box: UK Met OfficeBlue star: GroupsGrey box: External Organisations and groupings Organisation belonging to linked grouping
SAGE/COBR
IATA (Airlines)
IFALPA (Pilots)
CAA & IAA (UK & IRE airline regulators)
NATS
European ATMCommunity
ICAO
ICCAIA (Aerospace Industries)
Met & Atmospheric Agencies e.g. NWS’s, NOAA, EUMETNET
Volcano Observatories
IMO
Research Centres/Academia
NCAS
BGS
VAACs
EU Programmes &
Activities e.g.
EUMETSAT, ESA,
EUFAR, EASA
EC
UK Civil aviation
Cabinet Office
OEMs
DefenceSlide5
© Crown copyright Met Office
Cloud
Ash: descending and mixing into boundary layer
Aircraft
Lidar
Satellite
Sun Photometer
Radar
Enhanced Volcanic ash ObservationsSlide6
© Crown copyright Met Office
National and European Ceilometer & Lidar Networks
Met Office LIDARNETSlide7
Improved Volcanic ash modelling
All dispersion modelling is critically dependant on
meteorological data and ash observations“Eruption Source Parameters” include start time, height, location, mass eruption rate and the variation of these with time (from Iceland Met Office)
Met Office Global NWP is used for volcanic ash applications
Moving to 17 km resolution in July
1.5km grid
Up to 36hr
6-hourly update
25km grid
Up to 144hr
6-hourly updateSlide8
Resuspended Ash
Development of a resuspended ash scheme in NAME
Daily resuspended ash forecast produced for Iceland Met Office since late 2010
Work with Bristol University on a resuspended ash event in August 2013 (paper submitted)Slide9
© Crown copyright Met Office
The VAAC Process
VAAC
chart
Volcano data
Met Office Weather forecast models
Weather observations
NAME dispersion model
Other models
Forecaster
Satellite
+ other observationsSlide10
© Crown copyright Met Office
New forecasting tools and products
Annotated satellite
images – used in daily Science/CAA briefing during an eruption
Concentration chartsSlide11
Conclusion
Met Office will ensure that any volcanic eruptions are monitored
and forecasts of ash movement are issued.Met Office will utilise dispersion models to understand how any volcanic ash will move in the atmosphere. Met Office will communicate this information to all airspace users utilising agreed products.
But it is operators that determine safe operations in contaminated airspace through their Safety Risk Assessments.