Soili Larkin amp Mohammed Vaqar Public Health England West Midlands Objectives Demonstrate the CVD ROI tool Estimate the potential benefits to an STP area for Improving detection or management of prediabetes and diabetes ID: 1047604
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1. Tools to support development of interventionsSoili Larkin & Mohammed Vaqar Public Health England West Midlands
2. ObjectivesDemonstrate the CVD ROI toolEstimate the potential benefits to an STP area for: Improving detection or management of pre-diabetes and diabetes Improving the usage of key interventions Demonstrate the SHAPE CVD tool 2CVD ROI BSOL modelling example
3. Aim of ROI toolCVD ROI toolTo develop an integrated, single platform, local and national ROI tool for CVD prevention in high risk individuals, based on an up-to-date evidence review of interventions for detection or management of high risk conditionsAllows the user to explore CVD prevention strategies in patients with one or more of 6 key CVD risk factors, without existing CVDKey exclusions:Primary prevention in the general population, or prevention of subsequent events in people with pre-existing CVD not included in the scope of the tool
4. Six key CVD risk factors included in the ROI population of interest are:High blood pressure; Atrial fibrillation (AF); High cholesterol/high CVD risk; and familial hypercholesterolemia (FH); Diabetes (Type 2 and Type 1); Non-diabetic hyperglycaemia;Chronic kidney disease (CKDCVD ROI population of interestCVD ROI tool
5. The underlying model is a microsimulation modelThe model simulates the population (16 years+), based initially on the Health Survey for England.Baseline characteristics and risks coupled with diagnosis and treatment provide probability of CVD events, diabetes complications, as well as other conditionsPopulation cohort is aged over 20 years. Health trajectories of baseline populations defined by Whitehall II cohortInterventions are applied to individuals that alter risk factors. CVD risk is measured using modified risk scores (QRISK and QStroke).CVD ROI tool - overviewCVD ROI tool
6. Model progressionCVD ROI toolPopulationRisk factor progressionUpdate age and metabolic risk status of each individualDetectionManagementDetection and diagnosis of high risk individualsManagement of high risk individualsDisease outcomeProgression to disease and mortality eventsOver 20 yearsPatients & costPatients & costPatients & cost
7. User interventionCVD ROI toolEach model run by the user simulates the whole population twicefirstly under the assumption of current care and;secondly under the assumption of target care (inputted by the tool user)The difference between these simulations then calculated to produce incremental results
8. https://cvd-prevention.shef.ac.uk/
9. Setting up a model run
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13. Prevalence estimates
14. Key results
15. Key results - Costs
16. Key results - Costs
17. Key results - Savings
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20. Benefits
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23. Shape tool CVDhttps://shapeatlas.net/CVD/
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28. Diabetes Prevalence QOF: 2017/18